Pennsylvania Democrats appear to be within striking distance of flipping the state House

Pennsylvania Democrats believe they’re within striking distance of retaking the state House for the first time in more than a decade, an outcome that was considered a long shot by even the most optimistic Democrats.

The surprise showing, while still short of a majority in the chamber with races uncalled Wednesday morning, indicated that strong Democratic victories in statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate may have helped carry the party in down-ballot races.

And even if Republicans ultimately retain control of the state House, Democrats are poised to make a significant dent in the GOP’s 23-seat advantage. Control of the chamber will likely be decided by a half-dozen seats or less.

Democrats said it showed that a favorable redistricting process gave them a fighting chance, and that swing voters were moved by Harrisburg’s now-total control over abortion policy in Pennsylvania.

The outcome will have significant implications for Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro’s ability to enact policy in Harrisburg next year. If Republicans retain control of both chambers, he’s likely to govern with his veto pen. But Democratic control of the House would strengthen Shapiro’s hand in negotiations with the legislature.

As of Wednesday morning, control of the 203-seat chamber remained far from certain. Just 119 races had been called by the Associated Press. State Rep. Leanne Krueger (D., Delaware), who chairs the party’s state House campaign arm, said five key races remained too early to call. Republicans’ House campaign arm did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Democrats needed to net a dozen seats. The party targeted 14 districts across the state that it saw as key, almost all of them in suburban areas. Democrats were in a strong position in many of those races Wednesday morning.

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Three of those districts — two in Allegheny County and one in the State College area — were newly drawn, so there was no incumbent to defend them. Democrats Arvind Venkat and Mandy Steele held significant leads Wednesday morning in Allegheny, as did Democrat Paul Takac in State College.

But all eyes were on the Philadelphia suburbs, which have been trending increasingly Democratic for two decades. And several races could come down to razor-thin margins. Pennsylvania law requires automatic recounts if elections are decided by less than 0.5% of the the vote, so control of the chamber could remain unclear for weeks.

In two different Bucks County districts, candidates were separated by less than 500 votes Wednesday morning.

And in Montgomery County’s 151st District, incumbent Republican Rep. Todd Stephens and Democratic challenger Melissa Cerrato were separated by just two dozen votes. The county had about 4,300 mail ballots left to count, and provisional ballots had not yet been processed.

Over the last 12 years, Democrats and their allies have spent millions of dollars trying to unseat Stephens, who has held on in the district by appealing to its more moderate sensibilities.

Democrats saw this year as their best chance in a decade to take control of the lower chamber. It was the first general election since the state adopted new legislative maps through redistricting. And while the new state House map slightly favors Republicans, it is far more politically competitive than the previous one, according to a detailed data analysis conducted for The Inquirer by the nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project.

“With fair maps, Democrats can compete and win,” said Joe Corrigan, a Democratic strategist. “We just haven’t had them for a decade.”

Redistricting happens every 10 years and is tied to population changes captured by the census. The new Senate map largely protected incumbents in both parties. So the upper chamber, which Republicans have controlled since 1994, was less likely to see major shifts, and just half the 50 seats were on the ballot.

Still, while Democrats had boasted of their prospects for flipping the lower chamber, most said privately that it was unlikely to happen in a midterm election year with an unpopular Democratic president in the White House and inflation soaring.

Control of the legislature will have a major impact on Shapiro’s ability to drive his agenda as governor.

Republicans currently control what legislation is considered, and can stymie the Democrat’s more liberal policy priorities, which include changing the state’s education funding structure, tightening gun laws, and protecting or expanding voting access.

This is a developing story and will be updated.