Penn State vs. Purdue odds, spread: 2022 college football picks, Week 1 predictions from model on 45-32 run

The Penn State Nittany Lions will try to assert their dominance again Thursday night when they visit Ross-Ade Stadium to face the Purdue Boilermakers. The Nittany Lions are just 11-11 in their past two seasons, while the Boilermakers come in after posting nine victories in a season for the first time since 2003. But Penn State has won nine straight against Purdue and is 15-3-1 in the all-time series. The last time the Nittany Lions visited West Lafayette, Ind., they pasted Purdue 62-24. The 62 points remains the record for points scored by a visitor to the 98-year-old stadium. The Big Ten cross-division matchup will feature a pair of sixth-year senior quarterbacks leading powerful passing offenses. Aidan O’Connell comes in off a breakout year for the Boilermakers, and Sean Clifford has been a steady presence for Penn State and will chase several school records this season.      

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite in its latest Penn State vs. Purdue odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 52.5. Before you lock in any Purdue vs. Penn State picks or Week 1 college football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. Penn State:

Why Penn State can cover

Penn State lost the first-ever meeting in 1951, and the game ended in a tie in 1952. Two Purdue victories under the direction of quarterback Kyle Orton in 2003 and ’04 are the only other blemishes for the Nittany Lions in this series. The road team is 6-1-1 against the spread in the past eight meetings, and this one could come down to turnovers. O’Connell threw 11 interceptions last season, and the Nittany Lions picked off 14 passes, led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown. PSU also allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game, third-best in the Big Ten. 

Clifford threw for 3,107 and 21 TDs, with eight interceptions, and he needs 2,031 yards to break PSU’s all-time passing mark. Parker Washington and Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley should fill the void left by Jahan Dotson, a first-round draft pick. Washington caught 64 passes for 820 yards last season, while Tinsley had 87 catches (16th in FBS) and 1,402 yards (eighth) for the Hilltoppers. Keyvone Lee averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 September games, and it has scored at least 34 points in its past four games against Purdue.

Why Purdue can cover

O’Connell has given the Purdue fans high expectations, and they will revel in the Thursday night atmosphere. O’Connell completed 71.6% of his passes last season, throwing for 3,712 yards and 28 TDs in nine games. Star wideout David Bell is gone to the NFL, but Charlie Jones has transferred from Iowa, and tight end Payne Durham remains a reliable option. Jones grew up with O’Connell and came over after being named the Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year in 2021. Broc Thompson should join Jones in playing a big role in the Purdue receiving corps.

Thompson had 217 yards and two TDs in the Music City Bowl victory against Tennessee, and Durham had 45 catches and six TDs in 2021. Purdue averaged 29.1 points last season despite being unable to run the ball, so running back King Doerue (533 yards) and Indiana transfer Sampson James will need to step up. The Boilermakers had the second-best passing offense in the Big Ten. On defense, end Kydran Jenkins had five sacks in 2021 and will get after Clifford, who was sacked 30 times. Purdue is 20-8 ATS as an underdog under coach Jeff Brohm.

How to make Purdue vs. Penn State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 51 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Penn State vs. Purdue? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.