PECOTA projects Cubs to win 85 games, White Sox to win 83
PECOTA #PECOTA
(670 The Score) In a tradition unlike any other, Tuesday marked the day for baseball fans to get mad at computers and algorithms and simulations that none of us really understand.
Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections, and it surmises that the Cubs will win 85 games and the White Sox will win 83.
To be clear, the Cubs’ exact projection was 85.1 wins, which slotted them second in the NL Central behind the Brewers (88.8 wins). Chicago has a 29.4% chance to win the division, according to PECOTA. The Cubs won the NL Central by going 34-26 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which was just short of a 92-win pace for a full 162-game season. The Cubs have had a pretty quiet offseason, with their biggest move being the trade of ace Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that hurt their short-term outlook but added four young prospects.
The White Sox’s exact projection was 83.1 wins, which slotted them third in the AL Central behind the Twins (90.6 wins) and the Indians (85.7). Chicago has a 13.4% chance to win the division, according to PECOTA. The White Sox finished tied for second in the AL Central in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when they went 35-25. Those 35 wins represented a 94- or 95-win pace in a full 162-game season. The White Sox made a couple big additions to fortify their roster this offseason, trading for right-hander Lance Lynn and signing star closer Liam Hendriks.
PECOTA projects the reigning champion Dodgers to win an MLB-best 103 games.