Padres Daily: Pretty much a must-win (again); Clevinger will start feeling good again; Profar’s ejection

Good morning from Philadelphia,

It was months ago that the Padres accepted this is how they do things.

The hard way.

They had to scramble to win 89 games. They played more one-run games (47) than any other team and won more (30) than all but two. They played more games that ended with a walk-off (20) than any other team and won more (12) than all but two. They played the seventh-most (17) extra-inning games and won the second most (12). They hit the 10th-fewest home runs (153) but won the 10th-most games.

Now, following last night’s 4-2 loss in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series, they need to win tonight.

For one thing, just 14 of 91 teams who have faced a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series have come back to win the series. And the Padres certainly want to avoid having to face Zack Wheeler — who shut them out for seven innings in Game 1 — in an elimination game tomorrow.

You can read in my game story (here) about how the Padres went hitless with runners in scoring position and might have gone scoreless if the Phillies defense wasn’t such a freakshow.

Have to give props to Phillies second baseman Jean Segura.

He botched a potential double play ball and came back to make a couple nice plays and fouled off a 1-2 pitch in the fourth inning before reaching down and out to slap a slider that was about four inches off the dirt and four inches off the plate into right-center field for a two-run single that put Philadelphia up 3-1 with two outs in the fourth inning.

“That’s playoff baseball,” Segura said. “… It’s very important when you’ve got players that can handle the pressure with two outs with the game on the line and be able to come through. I mean, that’s the game I really love.”

(You can read about Segura’s night — with some fantastic insight into his mindset — in a story by Jon Marks.)

Segura’s single was one of six two-out hits for the Phillies, who were 1-for-19 in such situations in the first two games of the NLCS. His hit was also one of four the Phillies got after falling behind 0-2 against Joe Musgrove.

(You can read about Musgrove’s night, including what was and wasn’t working and Bob Melvin’s decision to keep him in as long as he did, in a story by Jeff Sanders.)

The Padres, meanwhile, were 0-for-7 with two strikes against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

“It felt like every inning we were right there,” catcher Austin Nola said. “… Over seven games, that’s going to be good. We continue to do that, it’s going to be really good. We take it one game at a time here. I’m not even looking at the series score. These games are competitive. And I love it. I mean, they’re so much fun, and they’re exhausting. But not worried about what the score is. We’ve just got to come in and bring it tomorrow. Whatever, win one game.”

This is pretty much just as much of a must-win as Game 2 of the NLDS after they lost that series opener. Just 11.6 percent of teams that have been down 2-0 in a best-of-five series have come back to win. Just 15.4 percent of teams that have been down 3-1 in a best-of-seven have come back to win.

(You can read Bryce Miller’s column addressing how the Padres need to go about achieving that imperative.)

Medical marvel

If the Padres are to win Game 4, it would figure that pitcher Mike Clevinger gave them a decent chance at the start. And if he does that, it seems the Padres’ medical staff deserves some credit.

Clevinger has been dealing with a sprained right MCL since spring training. It has bothered him more in some starts than others. One in which he didn’t feel right at all was Game 1 of the NL Division Series against the Dodgers.

But that was 11 days ago, and Clevinger got a lot of rest and a lot of treatment in that time.

“I feel more confident in how my body is feeling right now,” he said last night. “I feel like I’m going to be able to go out and be competitive. … I was able to throw a normal, competitive bullpen of 35 pitches yesterday, I haven’t been able to do that in probably a month. So that was nice.”

Clevinger, who allowed the Dodgers five runs (four earned) in 2 2/3 innings in the NLDS but held the White Sox to a run on three hits over six innings on Oct. 1, said he plans to go as long as Melvin allows.

He credited the rest for his rejuvenation, as well as the discovery and treatment of a “trapped nerve” and other treatment for his knee.

“I’ve been putting this training stuff to the test,” he said. “And they’ve been performing pretty highly.”

Phillies’ plans

As much of an unknown as Clevinger must be considered, tonight would seem to line up in the Padres’ favor when considering the pitching.

The Phillies will start Bailey Falter, a 25-year-old left-hander who had a 3.86 ERA over 84 innings this season and has never pitched in the postseason. Phillies manager Rob Thomson said he expects Falter to go one time through the order or “right around there.”

As for who follows, the Phillies could be short-handed. They used their two top relievers last night — Jose Alvarado, who threw 27 pitches, and Seranthony Dominguez, who threw 34 pitches.

“I’m sure that Alvarado will be fine,” Thomson said. “(Zach) Eflin will be fine. We’ll have to check in on Seranthony. That’s the most pitches he’s thrown all year. … We got to the point in the game where we had the lead late and we had to go for it.”

If the series goes seven games, then yesterday was the first of five games in five days. There is no doubt at this point that the Padres’ bullpen is in better shape than the Phillies’ pen.

“As we get deeper into the five days,” Thomson said, “we’re going to have to be careful.”

Check mate

Jurickson Profar may or may not have checked his swing on a full-count fastball in the ninth inning. He certainly felt he did.

“I thought I didn’t go, and it should have been a walk,” he said. “… Maybe the bat was in front, but I was just getting out of the way. I didn’t go. I didn’t swing.”

That is not how third base umpire Todd Tichenor saw it, as he ruled Profar’s bat had gone far enough to be deemed a swing, which was strike three.

Profar was incredulous, even more than he normally is at such things.

After appearing to yell a certain two-word phrase at Tichenor for a third time in rapid succession and kicking the helmet he had thrown, Profar was ejected by home plate umpire Ted Barrett.

Profar is generally animated, and this was a situation where his walk would have given the Padres runners at first and second with no outs. Instead, there was one out and a runner on first.

“It was big,” he said.

As for his actions afterward:

“We play a game and we play with emotion,” Profar said. “We don’t play soft. We play to win, and I put in emotion. … I’m a guy who plays with emotion. Maybe I could have done better, yes. But it happened.”

Other Padres were diplomatic when asked their assessment of the call. And Melvin indicated he wasn’t convinced either way.

“Originally it looked like it might have gone,” Melvin said. “Go back and look at it, maybe the bat didn’t get out there. It’s a close call, tough one. But maybe not.”

This was the wrong umpire (for the Padres) to have making a judgment on such a close call.

Nola all the way?

Melvin appears to have altered course a bit and be leaning toward Nola starting behind the plate tonight.

The Padres’ manager never said Nola would get a day off, but he did strongly indicate he thought it would be a good idea for a guy who never caught more than four games in a row this season and did that just twice. Over the past couple days, however, Melvin has spoken more and more about the possibility of Nola going the distance.

“There is no doubt that their guy is going to catch every game,” Melvin said of Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. “Our guy has (not) had the workload consistently over the years, obviously, as Realmuto has. But in the postseason, you’re trying to run your best lineup out there every game. You’ll see most teams run there catcher out there every day. A little different that it’s five in a row. So that’s why we’re having to take a look at that.”

Realmuto started 120 games this season and has caught at least 111 games each of the past seven full seasons. Nola converted to catcher in the minor leagues in 2017 and this year started 94 games at catcher, more than double his previous career high.

If Nola catches today, it almost certainly means he will start every game in the series. He is catching tomorrow, because Yu Darvish has only thrown to Nola this season. There seems virtually no chance Nola wouldn’t also start Games 6 and 7 given how important they are and the faith virtually everyone involved (pitchers, Melvin and the front office) has in him.

There is also a chance of rain Sunday.

“If that looks like it’s potentially not going to be played, why would I save him tomorrow?” Melvin said.

As of now, the National Weather Service forecasts a 50 percent chance of rain with between a tenth of an inch and quarter of an inch possible.

That sounds like a potential delay more than a postponement.

So far, Nola has caught all 88 defensive innings for the Padres this postseason, four fewer than the team-record 92 innings caught by Carlos Hernandez in 1998.

Thin

The Oakland A’s, under Melvin, used more pinch-hitters than any other American League team from 2014 to ’21. This season, Melvin ranked 14th in the majors. (The comparison of AL to MLB is apt because the designated hitter became universal this season.)

Last night provided the latest example of why. Melvin doesn’t have a deep or versatile bench to work with.

He used switch-hitting Josh Bell to face Eflin, a right-hander, in the sixth inning. Because there were no other batters who work from the left side on the bench, that meant Brandon Drury stayed in to face Dominguez, a righty, in the eighth. (Drury has hit .220 against right-handers since joining the Padres. He was 1-for-2 against right-handers last night and 1-for-2 against the left-handed Suarez.)

“We thought it was a pretty good matchup at the time,” Melvin said of using Bell when he did. “We feel we have a good lineup throughout. In theory, we don’t need a lot of help (from the bench). That’s what our roster looks like.”

Tidbits

(baseball-reference; STATS; U-T research)

All right, that’s it for me. Talk to you tomorrow.