Padres 2023 predictions: What does the future hold for Manny Machado, Juan Soto?

The Padres do not abide by a crystal ball. For better and for worse, they tend to shatter the wildest expectations. During the recently completed calendar year, they lost Fernando Tatis Jr. to injury and then suspension, traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader, mounted an inspired run to the National League Championship Series, and signed Xander Bogaerts for $280 million when they already had multiple starting-caliber shortstops. What seismic occurrences will 2023 bring?

We can only guess. And we will. Here are a handful of predictions for the new year — none particularly wild, but all meant to supply fodder for discussion.

Manny Machado agrees to a new contract to stay in San Diego

In November, a curious photo surfaced on social media. It showed franchise third baseman Machado, team owner Peter Seidler and a few other people standing outside Coors Field in the dead of the baseball winter. What were they doing there, of all places?

According to team officials, they were there to tour the Rockies’ home clubhouse, one of the nicer locker rooms in the league. No, the Padres aren’t planning to annex a division rival’s ballpark in their quest for world dominance. They are planning to expand and renovate the home clubhouse at Petco Park in the next year or two, and the Rockies were kind enough to allow them a look at one potential template.

Machado’s presence on such a trip is notable. After the 2023 season, he can opt out of the remaining five years and $150 million on his contract. Given the recent, very long-term contracts awarded to the likes of Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Rafael Devers, people inside and outside the Padres organization expect Machado to exercise that right — barring a preemptive extension or a surprisingly poor performance in another contract year.

Meanwhile, the Padres are demonstrating, through their words and actions, that they plan to do everything in their power to keep Machado well beyond 2023. “Our very strong intent — very strong — is to have Manny here for the rest of his career,” Seidler said last month following Bogaerts’ introductory news conference. Including Machado in a key discussion regarding Petco Park’s future is more evidence of that courtship.

Ultimately, it won’t mean much if the Padres don’t pony up. But Seidler has proven his willingness to lavish vast sums on star talent, and he’s already gone on the record about wanting to retain Machado. Here’s guessing that, either before or sometime after the end of next season, Machado becomes the first major leaguer to land a second $300 million contract — and that he gets it in San Diego.

Juan Soto remains on track to hit free agency

Seidler also has gone on the record in saying he would like to keep Soto for the foreseeable future — why wouldn’t he, after surrendering so much talent to acquire the outfielder? — but team officials acknowledge this particular pursuit might be more of a long shot. Some believe that, regardless of any public rhetoric, this story ends with the sport’s most prominent agent (Scott Boras) and arguably its most gifted hitter fully exploring the open market after the 2024 season. Soto will be only 26 then, and a payday exceeding $500 million feels quite possible. Some industry observers do not see Boras stopping there. Why not aim for, say, $600 million?

Soto might not come close to that number — fellow Boras client Bryce Harper also was 26 when he landed a 13-year, $330 million deal — but the market has gone wild this offseason, and these next two years could bring plenty more madness. As a point of reference, the second-best outfielder in the 2024-25 free-agent class might be Alex Verdugo.

Soto, of course, will need to perform significantly better than he did in 2022 to earn a record-setting deal. Last season highlighted both his exceptionally high floor — he had a 149 OPS+ in a “down” year — and the flaws in his game. On offense, the famously patient hitter slugged just .390 after his early August trade to San Diego. On defense, his status as a Gold Glove finalist belied the eye test and the metrics.

There have been a few theories floated in attempts to explain a disappointing campaign. Soto had never been traded before, and people around the sport wondered about the psychological effect of turning down $440 million from the Nationals — at age 23, no less.

Yet, while he might have to consider turning down another similarly lucrative offer in the not-too-distant future, Soto has shown he is nothing if not confident. In the meantime, it would be a surprise if he and Boras engage in serious extension talks coming off Soto’s worst season (and just ahead of a potential boon to his production in the form of the upcoming infield shift ban). The Padres will at least gauge the temperature this year, but here’s guessing that Soto will continue betting on himself in 2023.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 20-30 season

In 1999, the Padres — figuring they couldn’t afford to re-sign Greg Vaughn — became the first team to trade a player coming off a 50-homer season when they sent Vaughn and Mark Sweeney to Cincinnati. Reggie Sanders, who was part of the return, proceeded to hit 26 home runs and steal 36 bases before he was traded that December as part of a deal for Bret Boone and Ryan Klesko.

More than two decades later, much has changed about the way the Padres do business. Now, they make concerted and often expensive efforts to keep their best players. But something else has stayed the same: To this day, Sanders remains the franchise’s only 20-30 player.

At the risk of underestimating his immense talent, we’ll wager that Tatis becomes the second member of that club. Remember, Tatis swatted 42 home runs in only 130 games in 2021, and he could play roughly that many games after he returns from his PED suspension in late April.

But there are other variables that will be impossible to ignore. Tatis is returning from not one but two major surgeries — one to his left wrist, the other to his left shoulder. Other hitters have experienced some loss of power, at least early on, after undergoing similar procedures.

Tatis, even if he debuts as hoped on April 20, will be playing major-league baseball for the first time in nearly 18 months. It stands to reason that it could take him a while to get going again. Another young star, Ronald Acuña Jr., missed considerably less time after tearing his ACL and never really got going last season, finishing with 15 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 119 games.

So, depending on Tatis’ physical condition come April, a 20-30 season might not seem like much of an underestimate. (And, until he proves otherwise, Tatis will be an injury risk.) The Padres would be happy to get slightly above-average power from a corner bat — Tatis is a decent bet to get significant time in right field — and well-above-average speed on the base paths. The latter asset should be accentuated with the arrival of bigger bases and a limit on pickoff moves.

Tatis also is the player who once paced the National League in home runs while playing with a bum shoulder, so a 30-30 season doesn’t feel unrealistic. Will he be the same player so soon after multiple surgeries and a legacy-staining suspension? No star faces a wider range of outcomes. Consider this a prediction that he will finish somewhere behind Machado and Soto in NL MVP voting (and ahead of Bogaerts, who will be adjusting to a new league and a more pitcher-friendly ballpark).

Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth form the right side of the infield on Opening Day, but not the end-of-the-year alignment

The Padres’ most glaring organizational need is quality, controllable starting pitching. It might be unwise to assume Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove will combine for at least 84 starts, which they did in 2022. Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo provide limited certainty behind that trio, and it’s difficult to envision Adrian Morejon, Jay Groome or another upper-level arm/minor-league signee effectively eating many major-league innings. Plus, Darvish, Snell, Martinez and Lugo can all become free agents after next season.

Who could the Padres trade to address this need? The farm system isn’t completely barren, but most of San Diego’s best prospects are far from the majors at a time when even some rebuilding teams prefer to acquire more advanced talent. The big-league roster doesn’t have an obvious area of surplus.

What it does have is a wealth of shortstop talent, which figures to be deployed in unconventional ways. Currently, second baseman Cronenworth is the projected starting first baseman. Kim, a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop, is the projected starting second baseman. Even with the upcoming shift ban increasing the value of rangy infielders, it’s not an ideal setup.

The Padres might arguably improve their outlook by trading Kim for a starting pitcher and acquiring an inexpensive first baseman who would hit for more power than either Kim or Cronenworth. They could consider similar deals involving center fielder Trent Grisham, but Grisham’s value is down, and San Diego lacks outfield depth. A trade of Cronenworth, a two-time All-Star with three years of control, appears least likely. Kim, meanwhile, has two years of control; his trade value might never be higher than it is now.

Dealing the fan and clubhouse favorite would not be a popular move. The Padres, though, may feel compelled to act at some point this year; they clearly need pitching (and perhaps catching) reinforcements — both now and for the future — while other teams need shortstop help more than San Diego does. This offseason, the Padres have been willing to at least discuss Kim with other teams. Would he, a slick fielder but limited hitter, be enough to headline a deal for an impactful pitcher? That remains to be seen, if it even gets to that point.

Jackson Merrill doesn’t get traded … until July

Merrill is the organization’s latest relatively untouchable prospect. Evaluators love the shortstop’s frame, left-handed-hitting approach and, in particular, intangibles. But the Padres’ window to win is right now, and the Bogaerts signing might make the 19-year-old a tad more expendable in the eyes of team decision-makers.

The fact that Merrill could eventually play other infield positions might encourage the Padres to hang on to him through at least 2023. (A 2024 major-league debut feels possible.) Still, between the team’s need for pitching help — which could be exacerbated at any time by an injury — and its shortage of other attractive trade chips, Merrill could very well join the likes of CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood as former top prospects dealt away in pursuit of a title. For now, no deal is close. The Padres seem even more enamored than they were with Abrams, Gore and Wood, and they would require nothing short of a star-caliber return.

(Photo of Manny Machado: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)