Packers mailbag: Joe Barry’s job security, AJ Dillon’s and Aaron Jones’ futures

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The Green Bay Packers are back from the dead, having gone from the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the No. 7 seed in the NFC over the last three games.

Ahead of their Monday night matchup with the New York Giants in New Jersey, let’s dive into a bunch of your mailbag questions.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length. 

Are Aaron Jones’ health issues this season going to impact his return as a Packer next season? — Todd C.

It’s possible. Jones has one year remaining on his contract after this season and cutting or trading him before June 1 would free up a shade less than $5 million in cap space. He also just turned 29, which is like 85 normal human years in running back years. Would I keep Jones for one more year and, knowing how effective he can be when healthy, bank on him staying on the field? Yes. But I’m also not the general manager. Through 12 games this season, he’s been fully healthy for about two after playing in 62 of a possible 66 regular-season games over the prior four seasons. I’m not sure you just move on from a guy like Jones, an integral part of the organization both on and off the field, because of one injury-riddled season.

Is defensive coordinator Joe Barry safe or is there a possibility Matt LaFleur will try to recruit Robert Saleh if he is let go by the Jets? I am intrigued by this scenario. — Julien

I won’t lie — I have asked this question out loud in recent days. The Packers have the No. 9 scoring defense in the NFL. Barry has done little to lose his job this offseason. However, I’d imagine LaFleur would be enticed if his best friend and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers before the New York Jets hired him became available. He has to become available for this to be a possibility, of course, and I’m not sure Saleh will lose his job because Aaron Rodgers has been hurt, despite how disappointing the Jets’ season has been.

Although I am super encouraged by the state of play recently, I realistically don’t see anyone beating a healthy San Francisco team in the NFC. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, is this season a success if we come away knowing Jordan Love is our long-term guy? — Anthony F.

That’s one way to measure the success of this season. Given where the Packers are and the perceived ease of their remaining schedule, I would consider making the playoffs a success and anything short of that a slight disappointment. Is it an accomplishment in itself that the Packers are in the playoff discussion after how the first half went? Sure, so you could argue that barely missing the playoffs could be considered a success, too. That’s how I’d measure success, from a team perspective. But I also think it’s fair to consider the biggest question entering this season when trying to gauge the success of it and that was, “Is Love the guy?” Regardless of how the final five games go, if that answer is a resounding “yes” — it looks headed that way — then you’d be hard-pressed to say this season wasn’t a success to some extent.

Has AJ Dillon done enough in the last month to earn an extension? — James W.

This is a tricky one. Dillon has proven to be a solid No. 2 running back, but he’s not quite your prototypical feature back. The Packers can find a new No. 2 for cheaper through the draft and potentially have that guy sit behind Jones on the depth chart for a year before taking over lead-back duties in 2025. Dillon has certainly looked better lately compared to early in the season, but he might have had to establish himself as a bonafide No. 1 back to earn a contract extension and that hasn’t, and won’t, happen. There remains the possibility, however, that the Packers move on from Jones, re-sign Dillon to a one-year deal and draft someone early to sit behind or share carries with Dillon. But Dillon and his camp might want a multiyear deal, which the Packers might not be willing to give. The Packers could also move on from both Jones and Dillon, or they could move on from neither. Running back is probably Green Bay’s most intriguing position this coming offseason, for reasons you can see.

Really impressed by (Carrington Valentine and Corey Ballentine) at corner. They play physically, compete and tackle. Is this a better D with Jaire Alexander out? Do you see a scenario where GB moves on next year? Cap ramifications if they trade him? He is hurt more than he’s healthy and wouldn’t hit the water if he fell out of a boat. — David M.

Good heavens. I appreciate you participating in the mailbag, David, but did we really just ask if a defense is better off without a two-time Pro Bowl cornerback who made the All-Pro second team last year? Corey Ballentine and Carrington Valentine certainly have done a respectable job filling in for Alexander, who has missed seven games due to injury and Rasul Douglas, whom the Packers traded when they were 2-5. But the second Alexander is healthy enough to play — his shoulder situation seems a tad perplexing — he will be back on the field. There’s a reason he’s the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history in terms of average annual value. I don’t see the Packers moving on this offseason. Because you asked, trading Alexander before June 1, 2024, would not free up any cap space. In fact, it would cost the Packers more than $3 million in cap room, per Over The Cap.

I have no supporting data, but it *feels* like the Packers would have better starting field position if Keisean Nixon stopped taking kickoffs out of the end zone. I understand the desire to want to break a big play. Is the approach to return kickoffs something the coaching staff has decided on or is it left to the players on the field? — Scott H.

I’m glad you asked, Scott, because I do have data. According to TruMedia, the Packers’ average starting field position after a Nixon kickoff return is on their own 24.6-yard line. Of course, that’s not an actual yard line, rather the average spot at which the Packers start after he returns a kickoff. A touchback obviously puts the ball at the 25, so there’s only a difference of less than half a yard. I think taking it out, as long as it’s not too deep, is worth the gamble given what Nixon has proven to be capable of.

Any early predictions on which positions the Packers are most likely to target in the draft? I assume left tackle is high on the list. — Emil J.

I would also assume left tackle is high on the list, so high that there isn’t another position above it. If they’re still rotating Rasheed Walker and Yosh Nijman, that means they aren’t sold on either as the long-term answer. Protecting Love’s blindside for the foreseeable future should be priority No. 1. Safety should be up there, too, since Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford and Jonathan Owens are all scheduled to be unrestricted free agents after this season. And don’t forget running back. Jones has only one year remaining on his contract and Dillon has none. At least one of them is likely to be gone, in which case the Packers might draft their next No. 1 early in April. Any defensive tackles who can stop the run are always welcome in Green Bay, too.

What record do the Packers finish with and who do you think they would lose to? — David H.

Call me crazy, but I think they run the table and end up reeling off eight straight wins to end the season 11-6. If they are to lose one, I think it comes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home next Sunday. But they face Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield (two straight December losses in Green Bay with the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams), the Carolina Panthers, Josh Dobbs (the clock might have struck midnight last Monday against the Chicago Bears) and the Bears. That sounds like five wins to me, but I’ve been wrong in predicting the Packers to win games they should before.

GO DEEPER

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Which Packer under contract for next year is most likely to not be with the team next year: Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, De’Vondre Campbell or Preston Smith? — Brock G.

I think Bakhtiari and Campbell are both gone, but I’ll say Bakhtiari is more likely out. The Packers free up $21.5 million in cap space by trading or cutting him before June 1. Maybe he’s in the clear after another couple of knee surgeries this year, but I’m not sure it’s worth the risk anymore, especially if you find a left tackle of the future early in the draft.

Will Eric Stokes play football this season? — Chris R.

I would imagine so. He practiced in a limited capacity each day last week and still has some time before his 21-day window closes. He was designated to return on Nov. 27, which means the Packers must activate him or shut him down by Dec. 18.

(Photo of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones: Morry Gash / Associated Press)

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