Ousted Ali Bongo was on track to win Gabon election, polling shows

The president of Gabon who was ousted in a coup following elections on Saturday, was on course for a modest but clear victory, according to private polling conducted on his behalf.

The polling also showed that Ali Bongo was personally popular, even if his government and advisers were far less so. His personal ill health apparently was not seen as a reason for him to stand aside.

Mark Pursey, chief executive of BTP Advisers, told the Guardian his firm had been working with Bongo for 18 months prior to the ballot, and polling showed Bongo was likely to score just under 50% in a first past the post system, well ahead of his nearest rival with about 40%. The officially declared results showed he had polled closer to 64%, out of line with Pursey’s private polling and an exit poll.

Pursey also said the polling showed that although French culture, including food and films was popular, French politicians and the country’s influence ideas were deeply unpopular across all age groups. He said the only exception to the hostility to the French was amongst Gabon’s wealthy elite. Bongo went to school in France and then studied at the Sorbonne in Paris.

Britain was also relatively popular. Gabon joined the Commonwealth in 2022, and many schoolchildren have said that they want to learn English, and not French, due to the wider economic opportunities associated with English.

Pursey also said months of polling revealed no desire in any section of Gabon society to reject democracy or for power to be transferred by any means other than the ballot box. “There had been concern due to Gabon’s recent history of failed coups that there might be trouble after the election, and it now looks like this coup was very well planned ahead of the election, and not as a response to the results. I think there is little likelihood that this coup will not stick, but we will see,” he said.

He said key members of Bongo’s staff, including Bongo’s son, were arrested together by their guards as they celebrated the announced results. His firm had been working with Bongo for 18 months on polling, message development and his campaign. The focus of the campaign had been to remind voters that Bongo did have a record of delivery, including the provision of a nationwide network of buses and private health insurance.

Among those arrested and held at the military headquarters include Nourreddin Bongo Valentin, the president’s son, Jessye Ella Ekogha, the president’s director of communications and Mohamed Ali Saliou, the president’s chief of staff.

The first lady, Sylvia Bongo Ondimba, has been released, as has Marion Scappaticci, a French-born adviser to the president.