OBR: Brexit has had ‘significant adverse impact’ on UK trade

The OBR said Brexit contributed to reducing trade volumes and business relationships between UK and EU firms (Yui Mok/PA) (PA Archive)

Brexit has had a “significant adverse impact” on UK trade, according to the Budget watchdog’s assessment.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said Brexit contributed to reducing trade volumes and business relationships between UK and EU firms.

Trade was also hit by slowing global economic growth, the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook said.

The latest evidence suggests that Brexit has had a significant adverse impact on UK trade, via reducing both overall trade volumes and the number of trading relationships between UK and EU firms

Office for Budget Responsibility

“Near-term growth in exports and imports is lower than in our March forecast as slowing global GDP (gross domestic product) growth hits exports and a weaker outlook for consumption and investment weighs on imports,” the OBR said.

“Our trade forecast reflects our assumption that Brexit will result in the UK’s trade intensity being 15% lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU.

1975: Margaret Thatcher, sporting a jumper bearing the flags of European nations, in Parliament Square during her ‘Yes to Europe’ campaign (PA )

2016: Boris Johnson speaks at the launch of the Vote Leave campaign, in Truro, on May 11, 2016 (Reuters)

2020: Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage holds up a small Union Jack flag following a vote on the ratification of the Brexit deal during a European Parliament plenary session in Brussels on January 29, 2020 (AFP via Getty Images)

1962: French President General Charles de Gaulle gives a televised speech on New Year’s Eve 1962 (AFP/Getty Images)

1973:

1972: Marie-Louise Kwiatkowski throws ink over Edward Heath in Brussels as he prepares to sign the Treaty of Accession (Popperfoto/Getty Images)

1973: Gertrude Shilling’s Royal Ascot ‘Common Market’ outfit which was designed by her milliner son David (Getty Images)

1988: Jacques Delors, President of the European Comission, addresses the Trade Union Congress in Bournemouth to pose the idea of a wider European concept (PA )

1989: Margaret Thatcher greets French European Commission President Jacques Delors, months after she vowed to oppose “a European superstate exercising a new dominance from Brussels

2001: Greengrocer Steve Thoburn sells fruit and vegetables in pounds and ounces rather than kilos and grams, in protest at the EU’s official weights and measurement system (Reuters)

1998: European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Yves-Thibault de Silguy and President of the European Commission Jacques Santer mark the minting of the first euro coin (Reuters)

“The latest evidence suggests that Brexit has had a significant adverse impact on UK trade, via reducing both overall trade volumes and the number of trading relationships between UK and EU firms.”

The OBR document also forecast payments of £18.9 billion to Brussels under the terms of the Brexit divorce deal between 2022-23 and 2027-28.