No Big Russia Offensive in Ukraine in 2024, Igor Girkin Predicts

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is developing in “a very bad way,” but a “broad offensive” is no longer planned in the spring or summer, former Russian military commander Igor Girkin has predicted.

Writing in a letter from his prison cell, which was published on his personal Telegram account on Thursday, the Russian nationalist—who has been highly critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s handling of the war—suggested his nation’s forces would be short of men needed to mount any large-scale attacks until mobilizations restarted.

“There will be no mobilization yet—until the ‘elections’ for sure,” he wrote in Russian. “They will try to patch up ‘holes in the ranks’ and new units at the expense of prisoners and contract soldiers.”

Girkin, who also goes by Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, added: “In turn, means that in the spring we will have no one and nothing with which to attack (and if mobilization is not carried out in the spring, then there will be no one in the summer).”

Newsweek approached the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment on Friday.

Igor Girkin, a former top Russian military commander sits inside a glass defendants’ cage during a hearing to consider an appeal on his extended pre-trial detention in Moscow, Russia on October 17, 2023. Girkin has suggested Russia’s forces are short of men needed for any large-scale attacks in Ukraine until mobilizations resume. NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images

As the invasion nears its third year, Russian forces have failed to subdue Ukraine and secure its occupied territories from Ukrainian attacks. A disorganized military prone to tactical mistakes and shortages of equipment has led to a high death toll among Russian forces.

According to the latest tally by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian combat losses since the war began are nearly 369,000.

While Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive in 2023 did not make the sweeping territorial gains it had hoped to, Russia’s attempts to take the Donetsk town of Avdiivka have turned it into a meat grinder without taking its objective.

Russia’s losses have prompted Moscow to enact several mobilizations of able-bodied men, which has spawned domestic dissent over the war. In December, Putin confirmed he would be running for a fifth term as Russia’s president in March.

“A broad offensive (judging by the rhetoric) is no longer planned—everything is focused on ‘waiting’ on the defensive until Ukraine falls apart on its own or goes to negotiations,” Girkin speculated.

“Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, in such conditions, will again gain strength and I personally have no doubt that they will ‘try again,'” he added. “And it’s not a fact that it’s as mediocre and unsuccessful as the first one. They still know how to study, but here we have the same morons in command.”

Girkin, a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer, rose to prominence after assisting in the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. He was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment by the Hague for his role in the shooting down of a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet over Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people.

Girkin was arrested in July after openly publishing commentary critical of Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine, calling Putin a “cowardly mediocrity.” He has since announced his intention to run in the presidential election.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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