NL Central preview: Will a team step up?

 The NL Central may be the most difficult division to predict.

The division does not have a dominant team one can point to as the favorite. FanGraphs projects the division to be separated by less than seven games. In fact, no team is projected to win more than 84 games, with each team having at least a 17.9% chance of reaching the postseason. One could throw a proverbial blanket over the division.

Here’s how we think the NL Central will shake out. (Last season’s record and standing are in parenthesis.)

1. St. Louis Cardinals (71-91, fifth)

The Cardinals had one losing season in the 21st century before last year. 

The pitching staff struggled without Yadier Molina behind the plate. Meanwhile, the lineup did not have the firepower to make up the difference. 

The Cardinals struck quickly to address the rotation, adding Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Andrew Kittredge adds another solid piece to the bullpen. There are still questions about the lineup, especially given Tommy Edman’s slow return from offseason wrist surgery, and it is fair to wonder if the Cardinals need another arm or two. However, this may be enough to win the division.

2. Cincinnati Reds (82-80, third)

A new era has come for the Reds.

Face of the franchise Joey Votto is gone, having signed with the Blue Jays. It is now time for the young and exciting players on the roster to step up, with Elly De La Cruz likely to be the next Reds superstar. Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez were brought in to bolster the roster. The Reds were surprisingly competitive in 2023 and another step forward could come this year.

The future is now for the Reds. They could be this year’s surprise team if the youngsters can take that next step forward.

3. Chicago Cubs (83-79, second)

The Cubs questions from 2023 remain in 2024.

Marcus Stroman left in free agency and was replaced with Shota Imanaga, who is a question mark himself. While he performed well in Japan, he has had mixed results thus far in spring training. He has struck out 10 batters in 5.1 innings, but also allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks. 

Cody Bellinger is back, pushing Pete Crow-Armstrong down to Triple-A. The biggest change for the Cubs may be at manager, where David Ross was surprisingly fired to clear room for Craig Counsell. Is the difference between Counsell and Ross enough to make the Cubs a playoff team? That seems questionable.

The Cubs are essentially the same team as they were in 2023. Chances are, that will be true in the standings as well.