NHL vibe check: Trade deadline chaos, Red Wings stumble, Leon Draisaitl’s scoring

Action around the trade deadline is usually a slow build. Rumors and speculation circle around for weeks, with some trades trickling in during the days leading up to the deadline.

Over the last 10 years, per CapFriendly, the average number of trades in the two weeks leading up to deadline day is 17.6. This year, as of Feb. 28 (since who among us knows what could change in the hours between this writing and publishing), there have been 27.

The Athletic has live coverage of the NHL trades with the latest news, deals and analysis.

The vibes are chaotic leading up to the NHL trade deadline

The trade deadline was shaping up to be a dud. That might still be true if there’s nothing left to do on Friday, the actual day. Could there be 30 trades left for Friday to match last year’s deadline day total?

Viz by John Barr, @NHLtoSeattle

Everything kicked off early with the Bo Horvat deal, which was followed by a deal that brought Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola to the Islanders’ in-state rival. Then the Maple Leafs jumped in with a big trade of their own featuring Ryan O’Reilly. The trade market has only spiraled since then.

Again, as of this writing, there were 10 trades on Feb. 28 — that’s going to crank up the average number of deals from three days out, which currently sits at a lowly 1.1.

Viz by John Barr, @NHLtoSeattle

General managers in the Eastern Conference chose chaos, and most playoff teams have responded with a splashy move of their own. One of the exceptions is Pittsburgh, a team that looks to be clearing some cap space out to make a big move. This team has to shake things up if they want to make the most of out the Big Three they kept together this season. Three waiver moves started that process off — now, what will finish it?

The Penguins aren’t the only team that hasn’t made their move. Most teams in the Western Conference haven’t caught up, either. That started to change on Tuesday and should continue to unfold over the next few days. The disparity between conferences continues to grow, so there’s quite a bit of catching up to do.<

The vibes are interchanging in the Eastern Conference wild-card race

Despite some struggles over the last few months and injuries, the Islanders are still in it. The Penguins have been nothing short of streaky this year, and they’re in it. With every few steps forward, the Sabres slip back, but they’re still right in the mix. Detroit, Florida, Washington and even Ottawa aren’t entirely out of it just yet, either.

While the divisional slots in the East are somewhat decided, there’s still some intrigue in the wild-card race. A lot of that has been due to the Red Wings as of late — the team this section was supposed to be about.

Detroit was surging, and a lot of that was thanks to its expected goal suppression, goaltending and special teams. It was enough to convince management to keep some of the Red Wings’ pending free agents as their own rentals. But three straight losses, disappointing ones to the Lightning and Senators, could change plans. If management changed course, Pius Suter could be this deadline’s version of the ‘next Blake Coleman.’ Someone like Tyler Bertuzzi would generate interest, too. Detroit is in a position where it can afford to keep its team together, and hope it strings together enough wins to gain some playoff experience. The Red Wings spent years accumulating assets and they have draft picks, developing prospects and a ton of cap room. It’s different from an aging core that’s depleted its assets and needs to step back (hang on, we’ll get there!).

So whether or not Detroit stays in could make a difference in the level of intrigue surrounding the wild-card race. Could the Red Wings and Sabres shake it up, and disrupt the chances of a veteran team in Pittsburgh or on Long Island? Can the Panthers scrounge the assets to legitimately compete? If not, now that the Capitals have started to sell, the playoff picture could be decided very soon in the East.

The vibes are forward-thinking for teams willing to step back

Sometimes, teams just want to reach the playoffs even if it’ll end in early disappointment. But adding at the deadline on the path toward that can have a long-term ripple effect. That’s why it’s so important for teams to be honest about where they are and what needs to happen to change that.

Three teams have clearly done that so far this year: St. Louis, Washington and Nashville.

The Blues have moved out key pending free agents, and may even trade players (like Colton Parayko) with term. But this team is trying to have an accelerated turnaround, where they use the assets accumulated at the deadline to trend back up. While they didn’t win the Timo Meier race, there are others on the market to consider or there’s a chance to use draft capital in an offer sheet this summer. This could be a good case study on how quickly a team can, or can’t, actually retool if they’re aggressive enough off the bat.

The Capitals were wise in their decision to step back as well. Injuries and underperformances put them in this position, and they’re already starting the process of using assets collected at the deadline (a first-rounder from Boston) to acquire young NHL talent who can contribute now and in the future (Rasmus Sandin).

The Predators don’t appear to have as clear of a path forward, even with a high-end piece at each position. But at least management finally was honest about where they are and what their potential truly is this year. A hot streak from Juuse Saros couldn’t save them this year; he’s doing everything he can and has saved 28 more goals than expected this season, and this team has still underwhelmed.

This isn’t an easy thing to do — there are clubs around the league that could benefit from doing this now, or would have from doing it even sooner. So anytime a team does do it, and can do it successfully, it forces other general managers to take note.

Gustavsson didn’t have a lengthy track record when he joined the Wild. Between two seasons with the Senators, he had just 27 games of NHL action under his belt. That makes a tricky position even more challenging to evaluate.

The inexperienced goalie was brought in to back up Marc-Andre Fleury, and maybe even become a ‘1B’ to ensure the veteran was rested and ready for the playoffs. But that’s changed over the last month or so.

Through his first 32 games, Fleury was just below average, allowing about 1.9 more goals than expected based on his workload. Gustavsson had saved about 9.3 goals above expected in 20 games played. That’s when the workloads started to change. Fleury was pulled from a game on Feb. 9, throwing Gustavsson in back-to-back action, and since then, he’s really owned the starter’s net. Since taking over in-game on the 9th, he’s played eight games and earned a GSAx of 9.07, earning five quality starts along the way. Aside from a shutout against the Blue Jackets, things haven’t been as smooth for Fleury, who has allowed 2.2 more goals than expected in four appearances.

While Gustavsson’s earned his playing time, this is a situation to watch moving forward: Fleury is the projected starter of this team, with the playoff experience to match. But what if the 24-year-old maintains this level? Will the veteran have the chance to compete for the starting gig again, or is it Gustavsson’s to lose?

The vibes are underwhelming for Leon Draisaitl at five-on-five

Let’s make this very clear: We understand Draisaitl’s second in the league with 89 points. That’s nothing short of impressive. But it’s worth noting when and how he’s scoring. A career-high 49.4 percent of his points have been tallied on the advantage, as have about 64 percent of his goal scoring. Both are career highs; last year he netted less than 44 percent of his goals on the power play and about 37 percent of his overall scoring.

That’s something that stands out compared to the rest of the league, too. Of the top 50 scorers in the league (ahead of Tuesday’s matchups), only two players had a lower percentage of their scoring at five-on-five than Draisaitl’s 33.3 percent: Mika Zibanejad (32.3 percent) and J.T. Miller (31.8 percent).

It’s not just his percentage of scoring at five-on-five that’s dipped this season, but his overall impact there. Relative to his teammates, he’s actually not increasing his teammates’ shot or expected goal generation, and both impacts are the lowest of his career. While the team has 0.24 more goals per 60 with him deployed, relative to his teammates, that also trails most other seasons of his career; last year that was up at 0.38, and the year prior 0.84.

That downtrend in five-on-five play is a big reason why the Oilers have had Draisaitl back with Connor McDavid often. Last year, each was able to drive their own line and Draisaitl only spent 22.8 percent of his five-on-five minutes with the captain. This year, it’s a different story; he’s spent about 44.7 percent of his minutes with him and rightfully so considering (unsurprisingly) how much better he is with the best player in the world at his side.

Via HockeyViz

While Draisaitl’s currently back down the middle of the second line, this is a trend to keep an eye on — and one for management to think long and hard about with the clock ticking toward the deadline. If it’s clear the forward isn’t as strong at five-on-five and is best suited stacked up with McDavid, what can be done to bolster the lineup below that duo or who can be added to help bolster the second line with Draisaitl?

February Stars

Brent Burns has thrived with the Hurricanes this month. While he’s chipped in some scoring with three goals and eight assists, the standout is his play below the surface — how much offense the team has created in his minutes (and closely matched it with the results), and how little they’ve given up. This is the prime example of how a change of scenery can help a player’s game; the Canes’ system seems to click with him, as does playing with one of the best in Jaccob Slavin. Granted the disparity in his team versus the opponent, Burns’ game against the Ducks was one of his best of the year — in his minutes, Carolina created 29 shot attempts and held Anaheim to just three at five-on-five. It was a dominant performance on both ends of the ice from the veteran.

Last month the Connor McDavid-less stars weren’t appreciated by all. So let’s pump up the player who stands above the rest. It’s been another MVP-caliber season for the Oilers captain, who somehow has found a way to improve. Not only is he one of the best players at transporting the puck and setting his teammates up with dangerous passes, but his increase in goal scoring has added another dimension. Edmonton actually was better below the surface in his minutes in February than the results show, and the results were quite good as it was.

Rounding out this month is a player we won’t be surprised to see in this same position next month. Artemi Panarin just glows up whenever the Rangers bring him someone new to play with. It was true post-deadline last year, when he gained a jump in his step and improved at five-on-five, and again after New York’s first right-wing addition earlier this month. What might he look like once reunited with a winger he’s had so much success with? Along with the usual impacts we expected from Panarin — play-driving and playmaking — he’s picked up his shooting and goal scoring too. That’s made him all the more dynamic.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Top photo of Ryan O’Reilly: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)