NHL playoff projections: Where will the Islanders finish?

7:00 AM ET

Tim KavanaghESPN.com

CloseTim Kavanagh is a senior NHL editor for ESPN. He’s a native of upstate New York.

When it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs, the old adage is that a hot goalie can steal a series. So it should terrify the various Eastern Conference powerhouses that the New York Islanders are hanging around in a wild-card position with a dozen games to play.

Though he doesn’t have the win total of other top netminders, Ilya Sorokin is having a monster season. His save percentage of .925 is third in the league, and he’s earning plenty of attention in the Vezina Trophy conversation.

The Isles are currently in the first wild-card spot, with 80 points and 31 regulation wins in 71 games played, ahead of the suddenly hot Florida Panthers (79 and 31 in 70) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (78 and 25 in 70). So will New York still be in a wild-card position when the final games of the 2022-23 regular season are complete on April 14?

Tonight’s matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs — one of those aforementioned powerhouses — is the next step on the Islanders’ journey (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Hulu). They bested the Leafs 3-2 in OT back on Nov. 21, then lost 5-2 on Jan. 23. Thanks to a furious trade season, both of these rosters look quite a bit different these days (including former Leaf Pierre Engvall now skating for the Isles).

The next matchups should be easier; the Isles will visit the basement-dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets and the lottery-bound Buffalo Sabres. The ensuing five games will be quite the crucible: home against the New Jersey Devils; at the Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes; then back home for another game against the Lightning. They’ll then close out against the Philadelphia Flyers, Capitals and Montreal Canadiens.

As of today, FiveThirtyEight gives the Isles a 69% chance of making the playoffs, with the Panthers at 77% and the Penguins at 44%.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:Current playoff matchupsToday’s gamesLast night’s scoresExpanded standingsRace for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Florida PanthersA2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay LightningM1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York IslandersM2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle KrakenC2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Minnesota WildP1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg JetsP2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Tuesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres, 7 p.m.Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.Arizona Coyotes at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, 8:30 p.m.Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.

Monday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Florida Panthers 5, Detroit Red Wings 2Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1Colorado Avalanche 5, Chicago Blackhawks 0Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)Los Angeles Kings 8, Calgary Flames 2

Expanded standingsAtlantic Division

Points: 111Regulation wins: 46Playoff position: A1Games left: 13Points pace: 132Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 100%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93Regulation wins: 35Playoff position: A2Games left: 13Points pace: 111Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90Regulation wins: 34Playoff position: A3Games left: 11Points pace: 104Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Points: 79Regulation wins: 31Playoff position: WC2Games left: 12Points pace: 93Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 77%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73Regulation wins: 27Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 86Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 2%Tragic number: 18

Points: 72Regulation wins: 25Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 86Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 4%Tragic number: 19

Points: 69Regulation wins: 24Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 82Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 16

Points: 60Regulation wins: 18Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 70Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 5

Metropolitan Division

Points: 98Regulation wins: 33Playoff position: M1Games left: 14Points pace: 118Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97Regulation wins: 33Playoff position: M2Games left: 12Points pace: 114Next game: vs. MIN (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92Regulation wins: 31Playoff position: M3Games left: 12Points pace: 108Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Top stories of the week from

Get exclusive access to more than 3,000 premium articles a year from top writers.• Meet baseball’s next great ace »• Sabonis, Fox and the rise of the Kings »• Kiper’s post-free agency mock draft » More ESPN+ content »

Points: 80Regulation wins: 31Playoff position: WC1Games left: 11Points pace: 92Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 69%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78Regulation wins: 25Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 91Next game: @ COL (Wednesday)Playoff chances: 44%Tragic number: 23

Points: 73Regulation wins: 25Playoff position: N/AGames left: 11Points pace: 84Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 3%Tragic number: 16

Points: 62Regulation wins: 23Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 74Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 9

Points: 49Regulation wins: 15Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 58Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 0%Tragic number: E

Central Division

Points: 89Regulation wins: 31Playoff position: C1Games left: 12Points pace: 104Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88Regulation wins: 29Playoff position: C2Games left: 13Points pace: 105Next game: vs. PIT (Wednesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88Regulation wins: 29Playoff position: C3Games left: 12Points pace: 103Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

The NHL’s top 10 players by position

A panel of NHL players, coaches, GMs and other front-office personnel ranked the best players at each position:

• Goalies• Defensemen• Wingers• Centers

Points: 81Regulation wins: 29Playoff position: WC2Games left: 11Points pace: 94Next game: vs. ARI (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 70%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76Regulation wins: 25Playoff position: N/AGames left: 14Points pace: 92Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 20%Tragic number: 23

Points: 67Regulation wins: 23Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 80Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 12

Points: 65Regulation wins: 20Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 76Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 8

Points: 54Regulation wins: 16Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 63Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)Playoff chances: 0%Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 92Regulation wins: 32Playoff position: P1Games left: 12Points pace: 108Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92Regulation wins: 31Playoff position: P2Games left: 11Points pace: 106Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88Regulation wins: 37Playoff position: P3Games left: 11Points pace: 102Next game: vs. ARI (Wednesday)Playoff chances: >99%Tragic number: N/A

Watch NHL games on ESPN networks

This season will include 103 exclusive regular-season games across ESPN, ESPN+, Hulu and ABC. More than 1,000 out-of-market games will be available to ESPN+ subscribers via NHL Power Play on ESPN+.• How to watch • Subscribe to ESPN+ • Stream the NHL on ESPN

Points: 83Regulation wins: 30Playoff position: WC1Games left: 13Points pace: 99Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 93%Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77Regulation wins: 25Playoff position: N/AGames left: 11Points pace: 89Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 19%Tragic number: 18

Points: 67Regulation wins: 19Playoff position: N/AGames left: 13Points pace: 80Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)Playoff chances: <1%Tragic number: 12

Points: 56Regulation wins: 13Playoff position: N/AGames left: 12Points pace: 66Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)Playoff chances: 0%Tragic number: E

Points: 53Regulation wins: 14Playoff position: N/AGames left: 11Points pace: 61Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)Playoff chances: 0%Tragic number: E

X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 49Regulation wins: 15

Points: 53Regulation wins: 14

Points: 54Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56Regulation wins: 13

Points: 60Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62Regulation wins: 23

Points: 65Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67Regulation wins: 19

Points: 67Regulation wins: 23

Points: 69Regulation wins: 24

Points: 72Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73Regulation wins: 27

Points: 76Regulation wins: 25

Points: 77Regulation wins: 25

Points: 78Regulation wins: 25