NHL Draft lottery Phase 2, explained: Every team’s odds to pick Alexis Lafreniere after qualifying elimination

CHAOS!

It really did happen. 

The NHL held Phase 1 of the 2020 NHL Draft on June 26 when the most bizarre scenario imaginable unfolded, upending this year’s draft process.

The worst team in the NHL — by far, the lowly Red Wings — would not get to pick No. 1 overall. How about the second-worst team, the Senators, who had not one but two chances to win the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes? That would be a no. The Kings, luckier than most, jumped to No 2 overall, but still fell short of the top pick.

Instead, the ping pong ball turned up in favor of a yet-to-be-determined team playing in the qualifying round — not even one of the bottom-seven squads from the 2019-20 NHL shortened regular season — that will get the chance to draft Lafreniere, a Canadian wunderkind considered by most to be the NHL’s next generational talent.

Yes, 2020 is weird.

Sporting News has everything you need to know to make sense of the 2020 NHL Draft’s Phase 2 lottery, including updated odds and the current order of picks as teams are eliminated from postseason contention.

When is the NHL Draft Lottery Phase 2 draw?

The qualifying round is scheduled to end on Aug. 9 with the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning Aug. 11. Phase 2 will happen the day after the 16 teams are officially confirmed with eight teams itching to find out if they get the No. 1 overall pick.

How does Phase 2 work?

Let’s be honest for a second: the entire draft lottery this time around is confusing even for the most grizzled draft guru. With that, we’ll try to explain it as best we can.

First, there was a lottery back in June where the seven teams not participating in the postseason found out where they slotted for the draft. But as we said earlier, none of those teams were selected to pick first overall. That honor went to something called “Team E” — a placeholder for one of the eight teams eliminated from the NHL’s qualifying round.

So, that activated Phase 2.

On Monday, the NHL will hold a single draw in which every team has equal 12.5 percent odds to win the No. 1 overall pick and (what is expected to be) Lafreniere. The other seven teams will be assigned positions 9-15, in inverse order of their points percentages at the time the regular season was paused.

NHL Draft lottery odds

The eight teams will not compete in the Stanley Cup playoffs will get an even 12.5 percent chance to get the top pick in the draft that is scheduled for Oct. 10.

TEAM ODDS PTS. PCT. Winnipeg Jets 12.5 pct. .563 New York Rangers 12.5 .564 Florida Panthers 12.5 .565 Nashville Predators 12.5 .565 Edmonton Oilers 12.5 .585 Pittsburgh Penguins 12.5 .623 TBD 12.5 TBD TBD 12.5 TBD NHL Draft order 2020

Here is the complete 2020 NHL Draft order before the Phase 2 lottery drawing. After the first 15 picks are established, the remaining 16 slots (No. 16-31) will be determined by the results of the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs with the champion tentatively scheduled to pick 31st.

TEAM 1. TBD* 2. Los Angeles Kings 3. Ottawa Senators (via SJS) 4. Detroit Red Wings 5. Ottawa Senators 6. Anaheim Ducks 7. New Jersey Devils 8. Buffalo Sabres 9. TBD* 10. TBD* 11. TBD* 12. TBD* 13. TBD* 14. TBD* 15. TBD*

* To be determined by Phase 2 of 2020 NHL Draft Lottery

Alexis Lafreniere, other top prospects to know

The consensus No. 1 pick is Rimouski Oceanic forward Alexis Lafreniere. In April, the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau named him the top North American skater in its final rankings.

This past season, he led the QMJHL with 112 points (35 goals, 77 assists) and at the 2020 IIHF World Junior Championship, and he was named the tournament’s Most Valuable Player and Best Forward after posting 10 points (four goals, six assists) in five games for the gold-medal winning Canadians.

But he’s not the only player that has left general managers salivating to finally get the selection process going; the 2020 draft is a deep one with kids expected to make immediate impacts for their new franchises.

Here’s the top players to keep an eye on per the final Central Scouting Bureau standings:

North American skaters

Player Pos. Nationality Team 1 Alexis Lafreniere LW CAN Rimouski 2 Quinton Byfield C CAN Sudbury 3 Jamie Drysdale D CAN Erie 4 Jake Sanderson D USA U.S. U18 5 Cole Perfetti C CAN Saginaw 6 Marco Rossi C AUT Ottawa 7 Jack Quinn RW CAN Ottawa 8 Kaiden Guhle D CAN Prince Albert 9 Braden Schneider D CAN Brandon 10 Dawson Mercer C CAN Chicoutimi

International skaters

Ranking Player Pos. Nationality Team 1 Tim Stuetzle LW GER Mannheim 2 Alexander Holtz RW SWE Djurgarden 3 Anton Lundell C FIN HIFK 4 Lucas Raymond LW SWE Frolunda 5 Rodion Amirov LW RUS Ufa 6 Helge Grans D SWE Malmo Jr. 7 John-Jason Peterka RW GER Munchen 8 Topi Niemela D FIN Karpat 9 Noel Gunler RW SWE Lulea 10 Roni Hirvonen C FIN Assat

North American goaltenders

Ranking Player Nationality Team 1 Nicolas Daws CAN Guelph 2 Drew Commesso USA U.S. U18 3 Samuel Hlavaj SVK Sherbrooke 4 Will Cranley CAN Ottawa 5 Garin Bjorklund CAN Medicine Hat 6 Dylan Garand CAN Kamloops 7 Fabio Iacobo CAN Victoriaville 8 Devon Levi CAN Carleton Place 9 Brock Gould USA Moose Jaw 10 Nick Malik CZE Sault Ste. Marie

International goaltenders

Ranking Player Nationality Team 1 Iaroslav Askarov RUS Neva. Saint Petersburg 2 Jan Bednar CZE Sokolov 3 Joel Blomqvist FIN Karpat Jr. 4 Calle Clang SWE Rogle Jr. 5 Amir Miftakhov RUS Bars Kazan 6 Juho Markkanen FIN Saipa Jr. 7 Hugo Ollas SWE Linkoping Jr. 8 Jesper Vikman SWE AIK Jr. 9 Davide Fadani ITA Lugano Jr. 10 Jakub Malek CZE Vsetin Jr.

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