NHL contract grades: William Nylander gets big extension. Good for player, bad for team?

William Nylander signs an eight-year, $92 million ($11.5 million AAV) contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Dom Luszczyszyn: William Nylander has turned into a superstar.

That was something he looked to be on the cusp of last season after scoring a career-high 40 goals and 87 points and has since been cemented with his all-world domination this season. No player has more consistently put himself on the scoresheet this year and Nylander’s 54 points are tied with Connor McDavid for fifth in the league. By Net Rating, he’s on the edge of the top 10 in the league and right in the same stratosphere as top wingers like David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin. Nylander has been that good this year — he’s a franchise player.

It’s hard to lose a contract for a franchise star. Signing them is better than losing them and those types are usually underpaid relative to their on-ice contributions. Even if the player is overpaid relative to the market, players of such high caliber usually make up for it by providing surplus value on the actual dollar amount signed. The Leafs know that all too well. They pay full freight to keep their stars happy — stars who play well enough to surpass what their exorbitant salaries demand (in the regular season, anyway). That’s usually the silver lining relative to stars across the league who always sign for less. At the very least, they’re more than worth the money.

With Nylander’s deal, that silver lining doesn’t shimmer to nearly the same effect. An $11.5 million annual average is a tough bill to live up to for a player who hasn’t previously played to that level until this season.

Nylander is currently doing so with his monstrous year and should continue for the first half of the deal, but there’s far less upside to outperform that figure given his age and resume. This isn’t like previous Maple Leafs star deals that covered a player’s prime years where there was a higher likelihood of providing surplus value. This deal is right on the money for a player exiting his prime who will likely lose value as he goes into his 30s.

What should help mitigate that is continued salary-cap growth. The cap is expected to jump 5 percent next season and another 5 percent the following year. If the cap jumps 5 percent every season after that, Nylander’s projected market value comes in at exactly $11.5 million. A more conservative estimate of 3.5 percent growth though puts him closer to $11 million.

That’s fine in a league where stars get paid their fair share, but it seems that rule only applies to Toronto. This deal looks a lot more palatable if Pastrnak is making his worth (close to $14 million) rather than $250,000 less each year. It’s a moot point if Nylander can keep up with Pastrnak as he has this season, but Pastrnak’s track record suggests he’s the much safer bet. His normal is Nylander’s peak — it’s on Nylander to prove this level is something he can sustain. That 37 games of excellence was enough to drastically change the contract discussion from where the two were in the summer is not ideal for Toronto.

Of course, the alternative is losing Nylander altogether. That the Leafs were able to lock him up for eight years is a win on that front — it’s better to have Nylander than not. But that doesn’t make this a win for a team that’s once again paying top dollar for a superstar — this time without the potential surplus value to fall back on.

Nylander grade: A+Maple Leafs grade: C-

Sean Gentille: We could all use a periodic reminder that contracts — in the NHL, NFL, PWHL, regular life, whatever — go beyond the dollar amount. That’s the big number, sure, but … it’s not the only number.

Nylander’s deal is that reminder. The money is huge, yes, but $11.5 million is the going rate for a player of his caliber. If you want someone that good locked up for that long, it’s the cost of doing business. Where it turns into a huge win for Nylander, though, is along the margins. Other guys in the league make that much, and more are on the way. You won’t see a ton, though, reeling in a full no-movement clause and $68 million in signing bonus money along with it. It’s tough to imagine what else Nylander would’ve asked of the Leafs. He’s making a ton of money, he’ll make a ton of money for a long time, and he’ll be making it wherever he chooses. From a player-centric perspective, you love to see it.

And it’s good for the Leafs too, no doubt. This is a top-tier player we’re talking about; Toronto’s other option was, simply, not having him around. In this case, “Do you want the player or not?” is a valid question with a simple answer. Make no mistake, though: They’re paying premium money for a premium talent. He’ll outperform the deal, or come close enough, for the next few seasons, and that should be enough, given the Leafs’ overall timeline.

Down the line, though — and Nylander is signed through his age-35 season — the deal is going to look a little worse. Folks will start to complain about it a little more. The Leafs, by virtue of the money they’ve allotted to their superstars, won’t have the space to sign a particular depth piece. At some point, he’ll get old, and he’ll put the no-movement cause to use. Toronto’s bet — and it’s not a bad one — is that whatever happens between now and then will make the point moot.

Ultimately, locking up a player like him can’t get them anything but a passing grade. If the NMC was limited, or the term was a little shorter, the Leafs would’ve ended up on the upper end of the spectrum. Neither was the case, so they’re left with something blandly satisfactory.

Nylander grade: A+Maple Leafs grade: C

(Photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)