NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Can the Bills clip up the champion Rams in the opener?

Share this article share tweet text email link on Facebook on Twitter via text message on LinkedIn via email https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-picks-against-the-spread-week-1-odds-2022

September 8, 2022 10:51 am ET

Football is back, which means our weekly picks against the spread are back. And it feels so good!

Last season, our Prince J. Grimes went 44-44 in the regular season and 9-4 in the playoffs, and Charles Curtis went 128-123 in the regular season with a 10-3 playoff record. Now, with a clean slate, let’s hear from them and a couple new pickers this year.

Prince: I’m so fired up for the new season. Also excited to be picking from Week 1 after jumping on late last year.

Blake Schuster: *taps mic* Oh wow. We’re really doing this. Ok. Let’s dial up some locks.

Charles: I have a reputation to uphold. Let’s get it.

Caroline Darney: I’m just here so I don’t get fined. Just kidding, let’s have some fun.

All odds are courtesy of Tipico

1 Bills at Rams (+2.5)

Prince: Rams

As I explain in this clip, the Bills are my pick to win the Super Bowl but I think the Rams win this game. The home team is 16-2 in Thursday night openers since 2003.

Blake: Rams

I know the reigning Super Bowl champs as a home dog is probably a trap, but I imagine this will be a (relatively) low-scoring game and Los Angeles still has Aaron Donald on defense, so that takes it for me.

Charles: Rams

I’m with my buddies here. You can’t come in as defending champs and get blown out by the favorites to win this year.

Caroline: Bills

All of you guys taking the Rams makes me nervous. Also, if the Bills are going to go ahead and win the Super Bowl this year, may as well start the season with a win over the reigning champs.

2 Steelers at Bengals (-6.5)

Prince: Steelers

I could see a scenario where the Bengals get an early-season humbling in the form of a close win over a division rival they were supposed to beat handily.

Blake: Steelers

Mike Tomlin’s Coach of the Year (+3000) campaign starts early—even if Mitch Trubisky is running the offense to begin the season.

Charles: Steelers

I’m nervous about this game. I think the Bengals win outright, but Pittsburgh will put up enough of a fight to keep it close.

Caroline: Steelers

As a Steelers fan, the most painful thing that can happen is to lose by, like, three points late. So…that’s what I’m going with.

3 Ravens at Jets (+7.5)

Prince: Jets

I think the Ravens win, but it may take awhile for them to reach their ceiling as players work their way back from the injuries of last year. Besides, Joe Flacco pushing his old team to the brink is fun to think about.

Blake: Ravens

Do I wish I had taken this line at Ravens (-6.5) before Flacco was officially announced as New York’s starter? I sure do. Is that going to stop me from tailing Baltimore anyways? It sure won’t.

Charles: Ravens

Joe Flacco revenge game? HA! NO! C’mon.

Caroline: Jets

Ravens win, but Jets keep it within striking distance. It feels weird picking the Jets.

4 Saints at Falcons (+5.5)

Prince: Saints

This New Orleans defense should give Marcus Mariota and the Falcons offense some trouble.

Blake: Saints

Forget the defense, I’m ready to see what the Saints’ offense looks like with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas pairing up at wideout.

Charles: Saints

Would it shock me if the Falcons somehow find a way to cover? Nope. But I’ll back the favorites.

Caroline: Saints

I just don’t know if the Falcons have enough to hang with the Saints in this one, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

5 49ers at Bears (+6.5)

Prince: 49ers

Picking against the Bears might be a recurring weekly theme for me.

Blake: 49ers

Chicago may end up with the No. 1 pick this year—if not a new stadium altogether.

Charles: 49ers

This spread should be more like Niners -9.

Caroline: 49ers

I agree with all of my esteemed colleagues here. I think the Niners should be a ton of fun this season.

6 Eagles at Lions (+3.5)

Prince: Eagles

Detroit gives Philly a good game for a half, maybe even three quarters. But the Eagles pull away for a late cover.

Blake: Lions

I really struggle to stay away from home dogs in Week 1 (except the Bears) and while I don’t think the Lions are a better team than the Eagles, the hook here has my attention.

Charles: Eagles

Detroit will be a better team this season, but not against an NFC favorite looking to make a statement on the road.

Caroline: Eagles

This was the most toss-up game for me. I think the Eagles will be the team out of the NFC East, but could Detroit actually be fun this season? Regardless, this could be one of the more fun games this weekend.

7 Browns at Panthers (-1.5)

Prince: Panthers

I don’t care about Baker Mayfield’s potential gripe with his old team. But I do think Mayfield the quarterback tilts this pick in Carolina’s favor.

Blake: Panthers

But with that spread you might as well just take the moneyline.

Charles: Browns

I dunno. What if Cleveland runs all over the Panthers and this whole Mayfield Revenge Game narrative fizzles? I’ll take the points (but generally I’m not betting on this game).

Caroline: Panthers

I’m going Baker here, plus CMC with a statement opener.

8 Jaguars at Commanders (-2.5)

Prince: Commanders

If this game were in Jacksonville, I might go the other way. But I think Washington can find a way to cover a field goal at home.

Blake: Jaguars

I…uh…kinda like this Jaguars team? We’ll see how long this lasts.

Charles: Jaguars

Like Blake, I’m really into this Jags team. I think they walk away with a big win on the road.

Caroline: Jaguars

Since you’re making me pick, I’ll take the Jags.

9 Colts at Texans (+7.5)

Prince: Colts

Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 280 yards and four touchdowns in his two games against Houston last season. That’s all I need to know.

Blake: Colts

All the Jonathan Taylor talk is overshadowing what should be a big year for Michael Pittman Jr., but that will depend on how much Matt Ryan has left in his arm. Considering this is only Week 1, that should be plenty.

Charles: Colts

The Texans are the kind of team that will cover more than we think this year, but not in Week 1.

Caroline: Colts

Excited to see what Matt Ryan will do in a new location, and I love the RB-WR duo of Taylor and Pittman Jr. in the mix. Oh, and keep an eye out for rookie TE Jelani Woods (the Virginia grad stands a massive 6’7″) in some goal line action.

10 Patriots at Dolphins (-3.5)

Prince: Dolphins

With one of the best defenses in the league last season, New England lost to Miami by nine to close the regular season. This year, the Pats won’t be as good, and the Dolphins are better.

Blake: Patriots

I just can’t fully buy the Dolphins hype. Not yet. I’ve been burned too many times. Consider this bet an emotional hedge because no one outside of Boston is going get upset over the Pats starting the season with a loss.

Charles: Patriots

I really want to bet on the improved Dolphns to win this game … but bet against Bill Belichick in the division? With more than a 3-point spread? NOPE.

Caroline: Dolphins

I’LL BUY THE HYPE! Home game, Mike McDaniel at the helm … I think the Dolphins pull it off.

11 Giants at Titans (-5.5)

Prince: Titans

I give my Giants a fighting chance in this one, but Derrick Henry is going to be a lot to handle for their young defense.

Blake: I don’t give your Giants a fighting chance, but go off, Prince.

Charles: Titans

Sigh. Prince and I are in for a long season of Giants fandom.

Caroline: Titans

Hello, Derrick Henry.

12 Chiefs at Cardinals (+5.5)

Prince: Chiefs

Neither team is going to stop the other, but I trust Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to make more plays.

Blake: Cardinals

Home dog plus growing pains for a revamped Chiefs offense. Kansas City will get it together enough to make this one close, so give me the points.

Charles: Cardinals

I’ve gone back and forth with this one, but ultimately I don’t think the Chiefs’ defense is good enough against a really good Cardinals offense to cover that spread.

Caroline: Chiefs

Going with Prince here. I am taking the Chiefs by a touchdown. This one could be a lot of fun, however.

13 Packers at Vikings (+1.5)

Prince: Packers

I’ll go Green Bay here, but not because of Aaron Rodgers. This defense can be special, and Minnesota might be the first to find out.

Blake: Packers

A lifetime of watching the Bears has taught me to never bet against Green Bay in a division game.

Charles: Vikings

[Shoves chips into middle of table] All in on Kevin O’Connell’s team. [Regrets it immediately]

Caroline: Packers

This one is a coin toss, but I’m with Blake. This just feels like one Rodgers and the Packers pull off, probably in heartbreaking fashion for Vikings fans.

14 Raiders at Chargers (-3.5)

Prince: Chargers

If the Chargers are as good as we think they can be, this is their first chance to prove it.

Blake: Chargers

Let’s see how these Raiders vibes translate to the field before we go all in on Las Vegas. The Chargers are going to provide a great measuring stick.

Charles: Chargers

I think the Chargers are good enough to win the entire AFC. A prove-it game.

Caroline: Chargers

The Chargers are potentially win-a-Super-Bowl good this season, so they better start this off with a win over the Raiders.

15 Buccaneers at Cowboys (+2.5)

Prince: Buccaneers

I think this game is going to be ugly. But the Bucs have more offensive weapons, and I think that plays out over the course of four quarters.

Blake: Cowboys

This feels like a total toss-up. I could really be swayed either way, but I’ll go with the team that has more to prove right off the bat.

Charles: Buccaneers

Tom Brady will want to put the offseason behind him in a statement game, and I don’t think the Cowboys are that good.

Caroline: Buccaneers?

When I’m not sure, I tend to see if one of the teams has Tom Brady. If they do, they are probably going to win.