NFL Odds: Best prop picks for Week 18 as Derrick Henry returns to endzone

This weekend, Derrick Henry will return to the field in a do-or-die matchup for the Tennessee Titans, while there will be high emotions in Buffalo as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of the Bills take the field for the first time since last week’s game against Cincinnati was called off after the terrifying Damar Hamlin situation. Here are some of the best NFL prop picks for Week 18. 

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All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.

NFL Prop Pick: Derrick Henry anytime touchdown scorer (-125) and Derrick Henry over 92.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Titans are underdogs by a touchdown this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and if they want to have any chance of winning this game, they will need to rely heavily on their running game.

When you are going up against a team with a stronger, more explosive offense, your best defense can often be a slow, methodical offense that chews up clock. Your opponent’s explosive offense and the talented quarterback can’t hurt you if they are standing on the sidelines for the majority of the game watching your offense go to work. 

The Titans will need to rely on their ground game to gain yards in a slow, methodical manner, chewing up the clock and winning the time of possessions battle. The Titans’ offense is spearheaded by superstar running back Derrick Henry, and Henry is going to need to have an outstanding game for his team to have a chance. 

Henry knows what he needs to do, and his team will be feeding him the ball early and often. Look for Henry to run angry in this matchup and have at least 25 carries. Henry should be able to average at least four yards per carry, which will put him on pace for around 100 yards, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he broke a long run at some point which gives him even more breathing room to reach this total.

When the Titans are in the RedZone, they will rely on Henry’s legs as opposed to Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Henry can score in the RedZone by muscling his way through defenders, but with his combination of size and speed he is also a threat to break off a long run and find the endzone from anywhere on the field, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so this weekend.

NFL Prop Pick: Most passing yards of the game: Josh Allen (-196)

There is a decent amount of juice on this wager, but I view this as close to a lock. The Bills are expected to win this game, they will have an emotional lift behind them that might lift them to dominate the game, Allen is by far the superior quarterback, and he has better weapons at his disposal. The only way I see Jones winning is if the Patriots are down by four or more touchdowns in the first half and the Bills essentially play a prevent defense all game, but even in that case, I feel comfortable that Allen would have racked up enough yards building up that lead to stay ahead in this head to head contest.

There are going to be a lot of storylines around this game, and the better quarterback will win this head-to-head matchup for passing yards.

NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-136)

Without counting last week’s game against Cincinnati, Allen has thrown 32 touchdown passes in 15 games this season, which averages over 2 per game. In 10 of the 15 games, he has had two or more passing touchdowns. This is a favorable matchup, and in a game that may end up being a rout, I am confident that at least two of Allen’s passes will find the endzone this weekend.

NFL Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown scorer (+120)

Diggs is an elite receiver who was close with Damar Hamlin and very clearly was significantly impacted by what happened last week. Look for Diggs to come out on fire this weekend and honor his teammate by finding the endzone. If Allen throws two or more touchdown passes, there’s a good chance that his best receiver catches at least one of them.