NCAA Tournament 2021 bracket: Computer simulation gives surprising March Madness upsets, picks

With the First Four games in the books, the 64-team 2021 March Madness bracket officially begins on Friday, as 16 games in the South and Midwest Regions are scheduled at sites around Indiana. The 2021 NCAA Tournament will be unique in that regard, as teams are in a COVID-19 bubble instead of scattered around the country. Baylor earned a top seed in the 2021 NCAA bracket and will take on No. 16 Hartford, while No. 1 seed Illinois will face No. 16 Drexel.

Only once in the history of the NCAA Tournament has a No. 16 team upset a No. 1, as UMBC shocked Virginia to open the 2018 tournament. Are the Bears or Fighting Illini ripe for an upset in the NCAA Tournament 2021? And what other 2021 March Madness upsets loom in the first round? Before making any 2021 March Madness predictions, be sure to check out the 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

Last tournament, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 seed UC-Irvine over No. 4 seed Kansas State, No. 10 seed Florida over No. 7 seed Nevada, and No. 12 seed Oregon over No. 5 seed Wisconsin.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 15 of the 26 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds the past four tournaments and nailed 14 teams in the Sweet 16 last time.

There’s simply no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2021 March Madness pools. Now, the model has simulated every possible matchup in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and revealed its bracket. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2021 March Madness bracket upset picks

One team set to pull off a shocking upset in 2021 March Madness brackets: No. 9 St. Bonaventure knocks off No. 8 LSU in the East Region. The model respects LSU’s potent offense, but the Tigers’ defense is suspect, as they allowed 75.3 points per game, which is second-worst among tournament teams. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.2 isn’t much better, as the only NCAA Tournament teams with worse ratings are seeded 13th to 16th.

In over half of its 27 games this season, LSU allowed at least 80 points, and that kind of lax defense won’t get it done come tournament time. Those numbers are music to the ears of the Bonnies, who rank in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

St. Bonaventure can attack a defense from a number of angles, so if one player is having an off-night, another can pick up the slack. St. Bonaventure hasn’t won a first-round NCAA Tournament game in over 50 years, but SportsLine’s model has that drought ending in an upset against No. 8 LSU.

Another huge curveball in the East Region: No. 12 seed Georgetown pulls off the upset against No. 5 seed Colorado. The 5-12 matchup produces more upsets than just about any other spot in the first round of the NCAA Tournament bracket, and SportsLine’s model is high on coach Patrick Ewing’s team.

The Hoyas went just 9-12 during the regular season, but were unbeatable once they got to Madison Square Garden and the Big East Tournament, reeling off four straight victories, including a 25-point demolition of Creighton in the title game. Colorado, meanwhile, has lost two of its last three NCAA Tournament first-round games.

SportsLine’s model projects that Georgetown’s dream continues into the second round, as Jahvon Blair leads four Hoyas players in double-digit scoring against Colorado. It also projects that, despite entering as a 5.5-point underdog, the Hoyas are primed to pull off a first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament 2021.

How to make 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

SportsLine’s model also has one region where you need to pick the No. 2 seed, while the Nos. 10, 11 and 13 seeds all deliver huge first-round upsets. Nailing those picks could literally make or break your bracket.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2021 bracket? And which underdogs shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which No. 2 seed you need to target, and see which region you need to pick the 10, 11, and 13 seeds, all from the model that’s called 15 of the 26 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds in the last four tournaments.