NBA Christmas Day Props: How to Bet Lillard, Maxey & Jokic

Action Network contributor Alex Hinton breaks down his three NBA player props for Christmas, including Tyrese Maxey and Nikola Jokic.

December 25, 2023 4:34 PM

Today is one of the biggest days on the NBA calendar and we begin in New York. On Saturday afternoon, the Bucks defeated the Knicks for the third straight time this season. By his standards, Damian Lillard had an average game offensively. However, I like him to bounce back in Madison Square Garden once again.

In Denver, the last two NBA champions will square when the Warriors take on the Nuggets. Rookie center Trayce Jackson-Davis has emerged for the Warriors of late. However, he will have a tough task in keeping Nikola Jokic off the glass.

In Miami, the Sixers will be without MVP Joel Embiid. They will need a big game from Tyrese Maxey to pull out a win on the road. However, he will also draw more coverage from Heat defenders.

Merry Christmas to all and hopefully these picks will help us enjoy another winning day.

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Damian Lillard Over 24.5 points (-115) — ESPN Bet

This season, Jalen Brunson has had a lot of success against the Bucks and we backed him a couple of times. However, his counterpart Damian Lillard has given the Knicks fits as well. Lillard only scored 19 points in Saturday’s game, but with a balanced scoring effort in a 130-point outing, the Bucks did not need a big game from him.

However, Lillard has scored 25 points in his previous three games against the Knicks. In those three games, Lillard scored 28 points in all of them as well as 30 points in two of them. Additionally, Lillard has scored 25 in four of his past seven games at Madison Square Garden.

With how prolific a scorer Lillard is, he can easily explode for 25 points in a quarter. The Bucks have not needed too many those explosions from him yet, but Christmas Day in Madison Square Garden would certainly provide quite the moment for one. When Lillard does go off, it usually happens with a string of threes.

The Knicks are allowing 13.5 threes per game, 19th most in the league. They are also 21st in three-point percentage defense (37.6%) and Lillard has made at least four threes in three of his last four games against the Knicks. A big game from beyond the arc will likely lead to another 30-point game for Lillard. You can take him for 30 points at +220 on FanDuel.

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Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-105) — ESPN Bet

Nikola Jokic may also score 30 points today, but it is more likely that he gets a double-double and possibly another triple-double. Jokic has recorded a double-double in 26-of-30 games this season and 25 of them have included rebounds. Jokic is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game this season and he has had 13 rebounds in 16-of-30 games (53%) this season.

Jokic has also enjoyed a lot of success on the glass the Warriors of late. Dating back to 2020, Jokic has averaged 13.2 rebounds per game against the Warriors. He has had 13 rebounds in 7-for-12 games in games in that span, including the last two meetings. Additionally, he was hooked on 12 in four more games in that stretch. Jokic should be in the vicinity of 13 rebounds, but if you want to lay a little more juice, you can take over 11.5 rebounds at -160 on ESPN.

The Warriors are 21st in rebounds allowed to centers, but they still allowing over 14 rebounds per game to the position. Additionally, centers Alperen Sengun, Ivica Zubac, and Jusuf Nurkic each 13 rebounds against the Warriors in the last month. Nicholas Claxton, Al Horford, and Neemias Queta each cleared their overs and had 10 rebounds against the Warriors as well.

I also like the Nuggets length to force the Warriors into several contested shots. In the first meeting, the Warriors just 105 points and shot 31% from three. That will be a contributing factor in Jokic collecting 13 rebounds.

Tyrese Maxey Under 31.5 points (-125) — DraftKings

While Tyrese Maxey is one of my favorite players to back, particularly his points, I prefer his lines when Joel Embiid is in the lineup. When a team is missing one of their stars, it becomes much easier to double and force the ball out of the hands of the star that is on the court.

For example, a few weeks back, Kevin Durant missed a game against the Kings and Devin Booker’s points line shot up to 31.5/32.5 points. The Kings are not the best defensive team in the world and Booker shot an efficient 10-for-14 from the field. However, with just 14 shots, he finished with 28 points and went under his line.

Getting back to Maxey, he is having a phenomenal season, but he is averaging 26.4 points per game on the season. He has scored 32 points in his last two games, but he has done so in just five of 27 games this season. He has scored 32 in just two of his last 10 games without Joel Embiid and went under in one of two games this season.

The game this season that Maxey went under came against Minnesota. In that game, he took just 19 shots, which is just below his season average and not the uptick you would expect without Embiid. Maxey also has gone under in each of his last two games against Miami. They came last season so the Sixers were constructed a bit with James Harden still on the roster. However, Embiid did not play in the last meeting against Miami and Maxey scored 27 points.

Like Booker, Maxey can have a great game against Miami tonight. However, there is still a lot of wiggle room for him to stay under 32 points. We get an extra point of cushion on DraftKings as this line is down to 30.5 on FanDuel.