Monday briefing: What the prime minister can do to save her job

Good morning.

You’ve got to hand it to her, Liz Truss has managed to pack a lot into six short weeks as prime minister. And yet, with every passing moment, it seems her position becomes more precarious. Let’s quickly recap: a change of monarch, a “fiscal event” that caused the pound to plunge and government bonds to go into freefall, forcing the Bank of England to step in to undo some of the damage, and now a new chancellor.

There have been U-turns, rumours of mutinies and the chancellor of the exchequer (and the prime minister’s closest ally) was fired, with his successor apparently asked to take the job before Kwasi Kwarteng even landed in the country after being rushed back from America. What followed this weekend was Jeremy Hunt undertaking a tour of TV studios to announce further U-turns and stress that Truss is definitely, absolutely no question, still in charge.

But how much longer can this last? I spoke to the Guardian’s political editor, Pippa Crerar, to find out. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘Hunt is seen as a plausible figure’ Jeremy Hunt in the radio studio. Photograph: Simon Walker/HM Treasury

In the early hours of Friday morning, Kwasi Kwarteng boarded a flight to London, cutting his trip to Washington a day short to have emergency talks with Liz Truss. Those talks never happened – instead, less than 24 hours after Kwarteng insisted he wasn’t going anywhere, he was sacked and replaced with Jeremy Hunt. Kwarteng was the fall guy for an economic and financial mess that gripped the UK after the mini-budget, despite the prime minister having been in full agreement with this new, “pro-growth” agenda. In the fallout, Westminster has been abuzz with chatter about who’s in and who’s out and, crucially, how long Truss has left in No10.

Who’s really in charge?

Installing Jeremy Hunt was one of the few moves left for Truss. “The only way – really – to survive was to create some space and to show both the markets and jittery Tory MPs that she was able to get things back on track,” Pippa says. But to do that, it seems as though Hunt has been given free rein to do as he pleases to restore order. And he’s been quick to exercise that power – later today Hunt will make a statement to fast track the measures from the medium-term fiscal plan, announcing them two weeks earlier than expected. The message this sends is very clear: after a few weeks of extreme chaos and instability, the grownups have entered the room.

Hunt has signalled he has every intention of scrapping large swathes of the mini-budget. In his own words, it was “too much, too fast” – an ideologically motivated, uncosted plan that even some rightwing think tanks believe went too far. (Don’t mention the fact that Hunt stood for the Tory leadership promising to cut corporation tax even further than Kwarteng.)

Hunt’s steady delivery, expansive CV and familiar ideas have been welcomed by backbenchers. “He’s seen as a plausible figure by lots of Tory MPs because he’s experienced and he’s a good communicator,” Pippa says. Perhaps most importantly, he represents something that Truss no longer does: reliable, old-fashioned, budget slashing, fiscal conservatism. The stuff that has defined Tory politics for well over a decade. And that’s what he’s planning to do in a bid to calm the markets and recoup political and economic credibility for his party. Austerity 2.0. (Read more about Jeremy Hunt’s economic vision in this brilliant analysis by Phillip Inman.)

Whatever Hunt might be saying, it’s clear Truss has handed over power “wholesale” to Hunt, says Pippa.

Tory plots

As the rollercoaster continues, at least one thing remains clear: Liz Truss is fighting for her political life. Pippa has spoken to multiple MPs, some of whom have put their heads above the parapet to publicly condemn Truss, that have suggested that she should go. “It feels that that’s an irreversible trajectory, regardless of what Jeremy Hunt does in the Treasury or what power she gives up,” Pippa says.

So who exactly wants her out and what are they doing to make that happen? There are three main factions: Rishi Sunak, Penny Mourdant and Ben Wallace. “Rishi Sunak’s supporters are holding dinners trying to work out what their routes are going forward. And Penny Mordaunt’s are also consolidating – Mordaunt has been quite openly critical for a cabinet minister,” Pippa says.

She has heard some suggestions from defence secretary Ben Wallace’s allies that he might be considering the position, if it was in the national interest of course, despite deciding not to run in the leadership contest this summer. In fact, when he was asked last month at the Conservative party conference if he would consider running for leader, he said, “I don’t rule it out.” As a favourite among Tory members, he’s a strong candidate.

The spectre of Boris Johnson also looms large: “There are some suggestions that Johnson feels he was cut down in his prime and he has more to offer as leader,” Pippa says. Here is a comprehensive list by Peter Walker of who could get the job next.

Despite this near-pathological amount of plotting and scheming, the upheaval of another Tory leadership contest would be more damaging to the party than anything else. “Imposing yet another prime minister, the fifth in six years, would just confirm the public perception that the Tory party is riven with splits and unable to stay focused,” Pippa says.

Could Truss turn it around?

Getting rid of Kwarteng, the upcoming Halloween budget and the inability of Tory MPs to decide how they’re going to oust her has given Truss a few weeks to steady the ship and rustle up support. But even if the budget quells some of the anger from within her party, the upcoming months are going to be particularly difficult. “It’s not just the NHS and Ukraine, it’s also the fact that inflation has continued to soar and, crucially, mortgage rates are still going up – in the public’s mind, rising mortgage rates are now inextricably linked with the Conservative party – so she will get the blame,” Pippa says. The damage that has already been electorally shouldn’t be understated: a poll conducted for the Trades Union Congress (TUC) has suggested that 10 cabinet ministers, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Hunt and Thérèse Coffey, would lose their seats in a general election.

At the end of a potentially disastrous winter, where 3.5m households could face fuel poverty, the Tories face the prospect of “total annihilation” at the local elections next year. Pippa says, “it seems to be a matter of when she goes, not if”.

What else we’ve been reading

Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you through the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning

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Football | Liverpool defeated Man City 1-0, leaving Arsenal four points clear at the top of the Premier League table after their 1-0 win at Leeds.

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Football | The clasicó ended 3-1 to Real Madrid at the Camp Nou as the home side, Barcelona, were soundly defeated by their biggest rivals.

The front pages Guardian front page, 17 October 2022 Photograph: Guardian

The Guardian print edition leads this Monday morning with “Truss fights for survival as Tory rebel MPs warn that ‘game is up’”. The PM also “fights for survival” in the Financial Times which adds “business chiefs and ‘plotters’ pile on pressure”. The Times doesn’t mean King Charles III when it says “Tories hold secret talks on crowning new leader”. “Plot to topple Truss this week” – that’s the Daily Mail. The Daily Express has “D-day for PM: Will more U-turns save our economy?” – it says she has “abandoned Trussonomics” while Jeremy Hunt has “seized control” of the nation’s finances. “Truss faces challenge within days” says the i while the Metro has “The plots thicken” – will it be Sunak/Mordaunt, Ben Wallace as PM, or Hunt leapfrogging into the top job? The Telegraph may be leaning in a particular direction – “Mordaunt: we need stability not a soap opera”. “Tory MPs: quit now” – that’s the message for Liz Truss, according to the Mirror.

Today in Focus Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

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The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Students at Greenside primary inspect their produce. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

There’s a lot of attention on free school meals at the moment, who gets them, when and whether that should be expanded. So it’s lovely to read about Greenside primary school in London, and a host of others around the country, where children are being encouraged to grow, harvest and cook their own food. As Gemma Foxcroft, from Cracking Good Food which works with schools in the north-west of England, says: “We know we can inspire young minds if we’re given the chance – and that means the skills will be taken forward into the next generation.”

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Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.