MLB Rumors: Phillies’ Aaron Nola Eyed 8-Year, $200M+ Contract Last Offseason

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The Philadelphia Phillies “never came close” to an extension with starting pitcher Aaron Nola last MLB offseason, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Nightengale reported the 2018 All-Star was looking to sign for eight years and more than $200 million. The Phillies, on the other hand, preferred to make the contract four or five years.

Nola is now due to hit free agency this winter. Based on his raw numbers, a $200 million payday might be tough to collect.

In 32 starts, he went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA and a 4.03 FIP, both of which were well above what he delivered in 2022 (3.25 ERA; 2.58 FIP). His strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction, too, as he fanned 9.4 batters and walked 2.1 per nine innings.

Nola’s 3.77 expected ERA was a little more flattering, but still a full run higher than where it was in 2022 (2.74), per Baseball Savant.

The 30-year-old could send his value soaring in the playoffs, though. Through 12.2 innings so far, he has allowed two earned runs with nine strikeouts and one walk with the Phillies advancing to the National League Championship Series.

Free agency doesn’t boast a robust market in terms of starting pitching, either.

San Diego Padres ace Blake Snell could be looking at his second Cy Young Award, but some teams might be a bit wary of his general inconsistency from year to year or even start to start. Elbow trouble raises concerns over whether Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani can remain a two-way threat not just in 2024 but beyond that. Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto will garner a lot of interest, but there’s no guarantee his dominance domestically will translate to MLB.

Any way you cut it, Nola is one of the best arms on the board. Given his age, an eight-year pact is probably a bit too much of an ask. But he might be able to command a salary that matches the roughly $25 million he would’ve received annually from the Phillies if they had acceded to his demand.