MLB Cy Young Ladder 10.0: Gerrit Cole is closing on his first Cy Young award after coming so close before

1. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (-2000)

13-4 | 2.81 ERA | 208 SO | 6.4 WAR

Last ladder: 1st

Barring a complete meltdown in what’s likely to be just two more starts this year — both against the Toronto Blue Jays — Cole has this award locked up. He’s been strong down the stretch of the year, allowing two or fewer runs in five straight starts — all games the Yankees have won. In that time, he’s dropped his ERA from 3.03 to 2.81. And his recent track record says that could number could dip even further. In two previous starts against Toronto, Cole pitched a combined 11 2/3 innings without allowing a run.

2. Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners (+1000)

14-7 | 3.06 ERA | 207 SO | 3.9 WAR

Last ladder: 2nd

Castillo has an outside chance at catching Cole, but again, that would require a total meltdown on the leading candidate’s part. Otherwise, Castillo will have to settle for a really strong second place finish — and I mean really strong. The Mariners haven’t lost a game he’s started since July 24. That’s 10 straight games they’ve won with him on the mound, and he earned seven of those wins himself.

3. Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins (+2500)

8-7 | 2.84 ERA | 171 SO | 5.1 WAR

Last ladder: 3rd

More than anything Gray is going to be held back by his relatively low innings count. He has 14 fewer than Castillo and 18 fewer than Cole — equivalent to at least three standard starts. But he’s been especially strong since the start of August and just threw a seven inning shutout of the Chicago White Sox on Sunday.