MLB Best Bets, July 15: Snell, Paxton Props

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite player props of the MLB slate, including James Paxton and Blake Snell.

Blake Snell O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Phillies

Blake Snell has great numbers against the Phillies with a .200 OBA and 35.9 K% in 92 plate appearances and is on fire right now.

Snell’s been the hottest pitcher in the MLB over the eight games with three earned runs over that span.

Snell’s hit seven or more strikeouts in eight-straight games and eight or more in six of those eight games.

In June, Snell was the best pitcher with 53 strikeouts in five games with a 0.87 ERA and 13 hits allowed over 31.0 innings. Snell started July with a 2-0 record in two starts, a 0.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts, so he’s not slowing down.

Snell has four career starts against Philly with a 0-3 record for a 4.91 ERA, but this is the best form he has been in since meeting the Phillies. The Padres LHP also owns a .175 OBA and 1.55 ERA in five day games (46 Ks in 29.0 IP).

We will keep riding Snell against a high-strikeout team like the Phillies during a day game after Yu Darvish recorded nine Ks yesterday.

I grabbed Snell at -125 odds over 7.5 Ks and would go out to -140. The Phillies have the most Ks to LHP of any team and the fourth-most during day games.

Pick: Blake Snell Over 7.5 Strikeouts (1u)

James Paxton O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Cubs

James Paxton has not had back-to-back games of Under seven strikeouts all season and I don’t expect that to stop here against the Cubs.

Paxton has a small sample size versus the Cubs at 26 pLate appearances but owns a 42.3 K% and .200 OBA.

In his last four road starts, Paxton is 3-1 to the Over 6.5 Ks and went 6.1 innings or longer in three of those.

In June, Paxton had a stellar month recording a 1.74 ERA, .165 OBA and 34 strikeouts to six walks over 31.0 innings (five starts).

Chicago is a strikeout-heavy versus LHP, ranking 7th-most and third-most during day games.

I played Paxton Over 6.5 Ks at -118 odds and would go to -140 on this.

Pick: James Paxton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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