Michigan’s uncommitted voters send loud message to Biden over Israel-Hamas war

DEARBORN, Michigan — President Joe Biden easily won Michigan’s Democratic primary, but a grassroots campaign aimed at sending him a message over his response to the Israel–Hamas war surpassed its goal, showcasing the growing dissatisfaction the president faces within his own party.

The Associated Press called the race for Biden shortly after all the polls closed at 9 p.m. But while the incumbent president garnered 80% of the vote in an uncompetitive race, another 15% of the voters marked themselves “uncommitted,” with about a fifth of the ballots counted.

The organizers, led by Muslim and Arab American voters, set a low benchmark for uncommitted votes of just 10,000, roughly the Michigan margin of victory in the 2016 election, and that goal was quickly surpassed.

In comparison, four years ago, Biden earned 840,360 votes or 53%, in contrast to Sen. Bernie Sanders‘s (I-VT) 576,926 and 36%. In that same cycle, 19,106 Democrats, or 1%, voted uncommitted.

“Our movement emerged victorious tonight and massively surpassed our expectations,” Listen to Michigan, one organizing group, posted Tuesday night. “Tens of thousands of Michigan Democrats, many of whom who voted for Biden in 2020, are uncommitted to his re-election due to the war in Gaza.”

Michigan’s primaries, both Democratic and Republican, are the first nominating contests to be hosted by a battleground state before November’s general election. Former President Donald Trump easily won the Michigan GOP primary over former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, 67% to 28%, with 30% of the vote counted.

Multiple organizations, based mostly in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities, supported the uncommitted effort, from Listen to Michigan, proponents of which — including Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) — have indicated they are more likely to vote for Biden in the general election, to the Abandon Biden campaign, which is continuing to encourage people not to cast a ballot for Biden, even in November.

“I’m not going to be scared into voting for Biden,” Abandon Biden campaign Michigan co-chairwoman Samra’a Luqman told the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s a real insult to Muslims in the United States to act as if we don’t know what living through a Trump presidency would mean.”

The Listen to Michigan campaign had hoped at least 10,000 Democrats would mark themselves as uncommitted, Trump‘s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016. In 2020, Biden won the state by 154,000 votes. For perspective, there are 100,000 Arab Americans in the city of Dearborn, which borders Detroit, and 146,000 American Muslims registered to vote statewide.

“I was proud today to walk in and pull a Democratic ballot and vote uncommitted,” Tlaib said in a video posted on social media. “We must protect our democracy, we must make sure that our government is about us, about the people.”

Political candidates campaigning in Michigan have had to contend with uncommitted protest votes in the past, including Clinton in 2008 and former President Barack Obama in 2012, after Biden previewed the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza next week.

The Obama campaign and other bids decided against appearing on Michigan’s primary ballot in 2008 after the state declined to follow the Democratic National Committee‘s rules related to the order of its nominating contests, with a similar situation unfolding this year. Clinton received 328,309 votes, or 55%, to 238,168 uncommitted (40%) in 2008. Four years later, Obama earned 174,054 votes, or 89%, to 20,833 uncommitted (11%).

“It is a problem for Joe Biden, I just don’t think it represents the largest problem, even within this community, for Biden in November,” said Matthew Grossmann, the Michigan State University Institute of Public Policy and Social Research director, amid concerns about the president’s age, his minority outreach, the economy, and the southern border.

“The situation that’s going with Israel and Palestine breaks my heart, but I’m not in agreement with some Democrats, like Andy Levin, suggesting that we vote uncommitted because anything that can give Donald Trump an opportunity to become our president again is detrimental to my family,” said Jackie Kelly-Smith, Macomb County Democratic Committee’s black caucus chairwoman and a retired UAW worker. “I believe in a ceasefire, but I also believe in releasing the hostages. I believe that Israel has a right to protect their land, but I don’t believe in genocide.”

Trump has an average 5-percentage-point advantage on Biden in head-to-head Michigan polls, 47% to 42%, according to RealClearPolitics, but that does not account for independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Considering the other candidates, Trump’s nationwide edge over Biden increases from 2% to 3%.

Biden has been endorsed by the United Auto Workers, an influential political organization in Michigan, where the state’s car manufacturing industry has grappled with the president’s green policies, including his approach to electric vehicles. But Trump has argued that the rank-and-file union members remain with him.

“[Trump] fools our members, here’s my point, just like he fools the general public,” former Michigan AFL-CIO president Mark Gaffney said. “So we always had 15, 20% of our members voting Republican, but now with Trump, it’s as much as twice that.

“Will they come back around?” Gaffney continued. “They might. They might. I mean, people might finally begin to understand the guy’s as much of a crook as a politician. Does our standard outreach from the leadership to the members not counter Trump’s campaigning in the way that it probably should? Why do they believe him? I don’t know the answer to that, but it sure is true that more of them believe him.”

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Biden was not in Michigan before Tuesday’s primary, sending Vice President Kamala Harris the week before in his stead. Rather than holding an election watch party, the Michigan Democratic Party will convene a virtual call with Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Cory Booker (D-NJ), a Biden campaign co-chairman.

More than 1 million Michigan voters cast a ballot early in 2024, a 13% improvement in pre-Election Day voting from 2020. Only 1.6 million voters took part in the 2020 Democratic primary.