Michael Harris proving Atlanta Braves made right call on Cristian Pache

When the Atlanta Braves traded for Matt Olson, there was understandable backlash for the trade package given up for him from Braves fans

Even though Matt Olson is arguably an elite talent that was still under team control at the time, it was difficult to see top prospects given up in the trade.

It made sense that a catcher was given up in the deal due to Shea Langeliers and William Contreras both being well regarded enough to know that they had the talent to be starters. Not to mention, the Braves already had Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Piña on the roster through 2024.

The other big prospect moved that possibly had some fans scratching their head was Cristian Pache. Pache did struggle in 24 games for the Atlanta Braves from 2020-2021, but he flashed signs of a high ceiling with his elite defense and solid offensive numbers in the minors with a slash line of .277/.340/.462 in 2019. This led to Pache having time as Atlanta’s top prospect.

Fortunately for the Braves, Michael Harris II was making waves in the minors. However, Harris had not even played a single game at the AAA level prior to 2022 (and still hasn’t). In fact, he only has 43 games at AA total.

Typically, being this early in a player’s professional career, it would mean that a player still has development time ahead of him. Combine this with another top outfield prospect Drew Waters struggling, and the Atlanta Braves not having a primary centerfielder on the roster on opening day, it made sense to question Pache being moved in the trade.

The Atlanta Braves outfield unit struggled mightily in the first quarter of the season even factoring in knowing some of it was due to Ronald Acuña Jr. being out, and Eddie Rosario having an eye issue.

It was widely speculated that a centerfielder would be a trade deadline target, since it was a clear need with Adam Duvall playing out of position to cover the need.

To be fair, we do not know exactly how negotiations between the Braves and the Athletics went, but with the Braves clearly being weak in centerfield, this made it seem, at least for some, that maybe the Braves should have kept Pache.

Rather than wait for a trade deadline target to be available, since typically selling teams wait till the deadline for bigger name players to get maximum value, the Braves’ front office decided to promote Michael Harris.

As with all comparisons, it is important to factor in sample size. However, both players have small sample sizes, and Michael Harris is beginning to prove that the Braves’ front office knew what they were doing when they traded Pache.

Even without digging too far into statistics we can see that Harris is taking to the big leagues better than Pache has thus far.

If we look at Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which is an accumulative stat like hits or home runs that helps show a player’s overall output, Harris has a clear edge over Pache. In only 28 games, Harris has 1.0 WAR. In 65 games for the Athletics, Pache has a -0.6 WAR.

Offensively, albeit with a smaller sample size, Harris has looked great with a slash line of .330/.355/.524 which equates to an OPS+ of 138 (38% better than league average). This has accumulated so far to an offensive WAR (oWAR) of 1.0. If Harris were to play a full season, he is on pace for an oWAR of 5.78.

Pache is clearly lagging behind offensively with a slash line of .167/.212/.234 which equates to an OPS+ of 32 (68% below league average), and an oWAR of -0.9. If Pache were to play a full season, he would be on pace for a -2.24 oWAR.

Michael Harris will come back down to earth offensively since his batting average of balls in play is .425, which would be extremely hard to maintain with the league average typically floating between .280 and .300 any given year.

Unlike Harris, Pache has been a bit unlucky with a BABIP of .221. However, this is not predicting that he will come back and have numbers anywhere close to what Harris currently has offensively.

According to Statcast, Pache is swinging the bat poorly, regardless of the BABIP bad luck. He currently has an expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) of .271 which is in the bottom 4% of the league, an expected batting average (xBA) of .202 which is in the bottom 26%, and an expected slugging% (xSLG) of .340 which is in the bottom 8%.

Harris, on the other hand, has Statcast painting a better picture. He currently has an xBA of .278, xwOBA of .318, and an xSLG of .443.

Defensively, from an overall standpoint, both players are holding their own. Pache is currently on pace for a defensive WAR (dWAR) of 0.99. For reference, the league leader for outfielders in 2021 was Michael A. Taylor with 2.3 and the top 10 was rounded out by Trent Grisham with 1.0 dWAR.

If he were to play a full season, Michael Harris is on pace to have a 0.57 dWAR, which is still respectable.

If we look at defensive runs saved (DRS), both players are doing exceptionally well. Pache currently has 4 DRS in 508.2 innings, and Harris has 2 DRS in 254.1 innings.

It is safe to say that it looks like Michael Harris is making the loss of Pache for the Atlanta Braves not look so bad after all.