Mets vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Walker Buehler Dominates Against New York

The New York Mets (35-19) have surrendered the top spot of the National League to the Los Angeles Dodgers (35-17) after dropping the first two games of this four-game set.

This has come directly following a six-game win streak and a nine-game stretch during which they were averaging over 8.5 runs per game. The hot bats have seemingly cooled off, with New York mustering up just a single run across the two games.

Can the Mets get back into a rhythm and give themselves a chance to tie the series heading into Sunday, or will the Dodgers put themselves in a position to pull off the sweep?

Continue reading for our free MLB picks and predictions for the Mets vs Dodgers matchup on Saturday, June 4th.

Mets vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as -175 favorites and have since been bet up to -185. The total opened at 8.5, and books now are either showing a juiced Over on that number or a juiced Under on 9.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Dodgers predictions

Picks made on 6/04/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA• Date: Sunday, June 5, 2022• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET• TV: SNY, Sportsnet

Mets vs Dodgers betting preview Starting pitchers

David Peterson (2-0, 3.03 ERA): Peterson has shown mixed results in his three-season career thus far, pitching to a 3.44 ERA in his debut season before notching a 5.54 ERA last year. To fit with that theme, Peterson allowed just one earned run in three starts in April (0.64 ERA) but allowed nine in 15.2 innings in May (5.17 ERA). Peterson is coming off a weak outing against the Nationals in which he allowed six hits, four walks, and four earned runs over 4 2-3 innings.

Walker Buehler (6-1, 3.22 ERA): With all due respect to Clayton Kershaw and his career, Buehler is now the undisputed ace of the franchise, and for good reason. Buehler now sports a 2.93 career ERA and 1.02 WHIP across six seasons and has racked up two All-Star appearances as well. Across his 10 starts this year, Buehler has allowed more than three earned runs just twice and has gone at least five innings in each start.

Weather

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Key injuries

Mets: James McCann C (Out), Tyler Megill (Out).Dodgers: Blake Treinen RP (Out), Max Muncy 2B (Out), Edwin Rios 3B (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Out).Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dodgers have gone 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers

Mets vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The vast majority of pitchers never achieve across their MLB careers what Walker Buehler already has done in just his first five seasons. A career sub-3.00 ERA, two All-Star appearances, and a World Series ring all belong to Buehler at the age of just 27.

If Buehler retired tomorrow, he would retire with the highest winning percentage of any pitcher and it wouldn’t be close. His .767 win percentage (46-14 record) would be five percent higher than the all-time mark set by Spud Chandler, who coincidentally is the only pitcher with a higher win percentage than fellow Dodger Clayton Kershaw.

Another way to express Buehler’s excellence is to put his 2022 season so far into context. He has pitched five-plus innings in all 10 of his starts and has allowed more than three earned runs just twice. The right-hander’s excellence may be on full display on Saturday night, given his past success against these Mets.

Across 81 plate appearances, the Mets’ current roster has managed just a .169 batting average and .325 slugging percentage. Even Jeff McNeil, someone who has managed a career batting average over .300 (even in today’s baseball landscape), has gone entirely hitless against Buehler in nine plate appearances. Buehler has also managed an absurd 33.3% strikeout rate while maintaining a mind-blowing 3.7 walk rate in that sample.

David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets, and although he is no Buehler, the 26-year-old does show some promise. Peterson hit the majors in 2020 and racked up a respectable 6-2 record and 3.34 ERA. However, Peterson struggled rather extensively in 2021, going just 2-6 and managing a measly 5.54 ERA.

Through April, it appeared that Peterson had returned to 2020 form, allowing just one earned run in his first three starts and posting a 0.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. But, much like the flip from 2020 to 2021, May was quite bumpy. In his three starts last month, Peterson allowed a 5.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

No matter which version of Peterson shows up for Saturday’s matchup, the Dodgers are simply a task too tall given Buehler’s extensive excellence.

Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-175 at WynnBet)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

The Mets have played to a 27-24-3 (52.9%) record favoring the Over, the eighth-best mark in the MLB. The Dodgers have gone 23-27-2 (46.0%) that way, but have gone 14-11 (56.0%) at home.

However, the Dodgers have now gone 6-2 to the Under in their last eight. The Mets have also now gone Under in three straight after going Over in the previous eight.

If we expect Walker to repeat both his general level of play as well as his particular success against the Mets, New York may be contributing heavily to a fourth straight Under.

Plus, even when Walker comes out of the game, he’ll be handing the ball over to a bullpen that ranks sixth in batting average allowed, fourth in WHIP, fifth in strikeout rate, and fifth in WAR.

Prediction: Under 9 (-120 at Unibet)

Best bet

It’s safe to say that Walker Buehler could retire tomorrow and be more than satisfied with the career he already has put together. But, to our pleasure, that won’t be the case and Buehler will take the mound on Saturday night to likely put together another one of his many solid outings.

The theme of excellent starting pitching setting up the bullpen to extend that success has been already prevalent this series, with Dodgers’ pitchers allowing just one run over the course of the first two games.

And, of course, Buehler and company will have the league’s highest run-scoring offense (5.42 runs per game) behind them providing support. Expect the Dodgers to take care of business on Saturday night in comfortable fashion.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

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