Mets vs. Braves prediction: Odds, MLB pick today for Taijuan Walker-Charlie Morton

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Two pitchers who have been up and down all season will meet at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday night. 

For the Braves, veteran right-hander Charlie Morton will get the nod looking to earn just his second win in his last 12 starts. The Mets will counter with Taijuan Walker, who is just one start removed from allowing eight runs in two innings against the Braves on Aug. 5.

Mets vs. Braves odds 

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYM +1.5 (-160) vs. ATL -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline: NYM (+122) vs. ATL (-145)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

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Braves celebrate after beating the Mets on Monday Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Mets vs. Braves prediction

In terms of their season-long metrics, Walker has the edge over Morton, but under the hood, things look tighter and actually may tilt the scales a bit towards the 38-year-old strikeout artist. 

Walker’s 3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .241 batting average against all look strong for a mid-rotation starter, but his 4.00 xFIP suggests he’s been a little lucky and his batted ball data carries some red flags. According to StatCast, Walker ranks in the 20th percentile in hard hit percentage, 24th percentile in average exit velocity and 33rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. 

While Morton’s numbers are just a tad better in those departments, he’s got a significant edge in getting swings and misses compared to Walker. Over his last 10 starts, Morton has pitched to a 2.89 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, and has struck out 30.6% of the batters he’s faced. 

Michael Harris II #23 of the Atlanta Braves makes a leaping catch Getty Images Betting on Baseball?

Even though their overall numbers look pretty close to a wash, Morton’s upside puts the Braves in range for a bet as a short favorite on Tuesday night. 

Mets vs. Braves MLB pick today