McDavid and Draisaitl Can Only Carry So Much

These playoffs have seen Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl play some of the best hockey that human civilization has ever seen, completely redefining the degree to which one player can influence the outcome of a hockey game in the process.

But there is a limit. And it appears as though the Edmonton Oilers have finally reached it. 

The Oilers could simply not get anything going against a stingy Avalanche defense on Thursday night. Literally nothing. They were shut out. 

The Avs limited the team with two of the best pure point-getters in NHL history to just 24 shots on goal in Game 2 of their Western Conference final, five of which came from McDavid and Draisaitl combined while another five represented the club’s entire third-period total when the Oilers should have otherwise been gearing up for a final push. 

They certainly managed to execute one in Game 1, of course, with the Oilers unleashing an offensive onslaught on the Avalanche that helped them roar back from a three-goal deficit to make it a 7-6 game late in the final minutes before an empty-netter sealed their fate. 

None of that fire was present on Thursday, though. And the group that has answered every jab thrown their way these playoffs fell silent. 

Perhaps it’s because two players alone have done so much of the speaking. 

Game 2 was more than a loss for the Oilers. It was a perfect storm of maladies that had, to this point, been more or less covered up by the elite play of their pair of stars. 

The Oilers’ stationary blueline was exposed to a glaring degree by the Avalanche’s insistence on their forwards attacking the wide-open space at the center of the neutral zone to gain the opposing blueline at top speed. The bottom-six was nowhere to be found either, with the likes of Josh Archibald, Zack Kassian, Derek Ryan, and Warren Foegle getting caved in in possession and scoring chance generation at five-on-five while mustering zero offense. 

And, of course, the Oilers’ goaltending demons rose up once again, as Mike Smith failed to bounce back from his now-routine disastrous Game 1 performance while also facing a vaunted Avalanche power-play seven times — six of which, to his credit, he handled successfully. 

This isn’t to say that the Oilers are entirely run by two players alone. They’ve received phenomenal secondary scoring contributions from the likes of Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evander Kane in these playoffs, solving a massive roster hole that held them back for so many years. Heck, they’ve even managed to capture lightning in a bottle with Cody Ceci by getting him to miraculously give them quality top-four minutes in high-leverage situations. 

The magnitude of that should not be discounted. 

But the Oilers’ flaws have persisted even as their wins continued to stack up. An inexperienced Los Angeles Kings squad missing Drew Doughty didn’t have the firepower to expose them, while the Calgary Flames who, on paper, should have given them a tougher fight, struggled to compensate for the .853 goaltending Jacob Markstrom gave them through five games. 

The Avalanche provide no such openings. This is a remarkably deep team, one capable of losing its starting goaltender and a key top-six forward ahead of Game 2 and missing not so much as a single beat. 

Through the first two games of the series, the Avalanche have put a stranglehold on the Oilers’ star duo, limiting McDavid to 35.73 percent of the expected goals and 32.69 percent of the scoring chances at even-strength, while holding Draisaitl to 44.91 and 38.24 percent, respectively. 

Jared Bednar’s group has done to the Oilers what their prior opponents have tried and failed to thus far. And, in the process, their success has exposed just how little help there is waiting below the Big Two. 

Not only that, but the Avalanche possess the speed and depth to completely overwhelm an overmatched Oilers’ defense corps. Edmonton’s two most heavily used blueliners, Ceci and Darnell Nurse, have been tasked primarily with containing Colorado’s top line featuring the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, and Gabriel Landeskog to disastrous results, with Ceci posting a dismal 38.55 percent expected goal share while surrendering 64.44 percent of the scoring chances, as Nurse has not fared much better given his 33.51 percent expected goal share and the nearly 70 percent share of the scoring chances he’s handed to his opponent on a silver platter. 

And those are actually some of the better numbers along the Oilers blueline. In fact, not a single defender, save for Evan Bouchard, has a positive expected goal share through these first two games, with veteran pieces like Duncan Keith and Tyson Barrie, in particular, failing to keep their heads above water at all. 

Even if McDavid and Draisaitl were at the height of their powers right now — and they very well could find that magic again on home ice in Game 3 — having nearly all six of your defenders get out-scored and out-chanced with five players on are the ice at both ends is simply too heavy a load for any star to carry. 

Smith is voodoo, so it’s barely even worth digging into his numbers. The wily vet is a man without a middle ground, capable of posting either a .950 save percentage with some highlight-reel stops to lead his team to victory, or imploding spectacularly like hockey’s Hindenburg and not even making it out of the second period. 

There is no in-between with Smith, and either version of him is just as likely to show up for Game 3 as the other. 

Version A will certainly help mask the Oilers’ gaping holes on a poorly constructed blueline once again. Anything less, though, will spell disaster. 

McDavid and Draisaitl have carried the Oilers further than anyone thought possible for two players. Now, they need some help. And if their season is to continue beyond Monday, they better get it.