Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions: can MVP Nikola Jokic and Denver bounce back?

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, left, drives the lane around New York Knicks guard Quentin Grimes, center, during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in New York. The Associated Press

The Nuggets are looking for a bounce-back victory after back-to-back blowout losses, a major factor in our Mavericks vs. Nuggets prediction. 

Meanwhile, the Mavericks have won two straight. Dallas is ninth in the Western Conference standings, but you can never overlook the Mavericks due to Luka Doncic. 

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Then again, you can never overlook the Nuggets due to Nikola Jokic. 

So, which superstar has the edge? More importantly, what’s the best way for bettors to attack this matchup?

Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds

Spread: Mavericks +5 (-110) vs. Nuggets -5 (-110)

Moneyline: Mavericks (+172) vs. Nuggets (-205)

Total: Over 222.5 (-110) | Under 222.5 (-110)

Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions Dallas Mavericks +5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s a tough schedule spot for the Mavericks, given they beat a great Suns team and traveled overnight from Dallas to Denver. 

However, the Mavericks played only one guy for more than 30 minutes in last night’s win. This team should be rested enough to compete, granted everyone is healthy and playing (check the injury reports). 

The past two games have been ugly for the Nuggets. The defense looks cooked, as the Nuggets have fallen to 27th in points per 100 possessions allowed, per Cleaning the Glass. 

The Nuggets are especially weak on the interior, ranking dead last in the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim (70.7%). The Pelicans and Hawks both dropped over 120 points on the Nuggets, and both shot over 72% at the rim. 

Meanwhile, the Mavericks are frisky on defense. Dallas is 11th in points per 100 possessions allowed and fifth in defensive turnover rate. 

The scary part is the Denver offense, one of the most efficient in the league behind Jokic. However, the Dallas offense is seventh in points per 100 possessions and first in offensive turnover rate. 

The Mavericks will have no issues shredding Denver’s defense, especially with top MVP candidate Doncic. The young point forward is a machine, averaging 33.4 points, 8.5 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game with an absurd 57.1 effective field-goal percentage. 

Doncic is the most efficient player in the NBA, per Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus metric. 

Catching five points with Doncic and the Mavericks’ above-average defense against a Nuggets team reeling defensively feels like a gift. I’ll bet the Mavericks on the spread and might bet them on the ML. 

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