Masai Ujiri’s job, Scottie Barnes’ patience and more: Raptors mailbag, Part 2:

Well hey, here we are again. Thank you so much for filling the mailbag, and I hope I’ve gotten to all the big topics within the last two missives, if not every last question.

Here we go.

(Questions have been edited for length and clarity. All questions were submitted before the weekend’s OG Anunoby trade. I have salvaged what I can, but some questions/answers were deleted.)

If Masai Ujiri again screws up the trade market (doesn’t trade OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and overpays them or they leave in free agency) will he be fired in the offseason? — Dan K.

The Anunoby deal quells some of these concerns, but this has been a big question, so I will tackle it.

While we can quibble with the details — I believe Siakam would receive a max offer on the free-agent market, making it hard to “overpay” him — this is the broad question people have begun to ask. This is where we are after a deeply troubling season and a half.

The basic answer: No, Ujiri would not be fired if one of those things happens — so long as the ownership situation remains relatively static. Larry Tanenbaum, who has sold some of his shares but still has massive sway on what goes on within the franchise and league, is loyal to Ujiri, who brought him his first big-four league title as a professional sports team owner. While the reports of Edward Rogers and Ujiri not getting along have burbled, this doesn’t impact the franchise on a day-to-day or even month-to-month basis. If the ownership structure changes dramatically, my answer might change. For now, he’s not going anywhere unless he wants a change.

The more interesting question is, should he be fired if one of those two things happens? I believe allowing Siakam to walk for no return, an offseason after Fred VanVleet did, is a fireable offence. (The factor that has not been talked about in a trade: How much long-term money do the Raptors take on in a move sending out Siakam? How much of it is undesirable long-term money? Collecting players and picks is good, but if you have to take on too many onerous contracts, it becomes complicated.) However, I don’t think Ujiri should be fired if it happens.

To put it bluntly, Ujiri is a good NBA executive. If he left Toronto, he would be in demand elsewhere in the league. That alone isn’t a reason to keep him, but combine that with bringing a title to Toronto, and I’d err on the side of letting him try to rebuild the team. Of course, he would have to present a compelling path forward, but he deserves the chance.

Reasonable minds can disagree here. Ujiri has not done a good job over the last few years, and the Raptors are in a bind more because of that than any other reason. I don’t think he suddenly knows less about the league, though. I think he miscalculated some moves/non-moves. On the whole, I still believe he’s good at this. The Anunoby trade he made was pretty shrewd too.

GO DEEPER

Raptors-Knicks trade grades: OG Anunoby heads to New York for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley

Is there any way to rectify the mistake of reacquiring (and then re-signing) Jakob Poeltl? He might have made sense when it looked like Toronto would retain VanVleet (thereby reigniting the team’s pick-and-roll offence), but the fit is bad for this iteration of the Raptors. — Marshall A.

With three years left on his contract, it would be a tough move. Two teams jumped out to me — one because it’s further along than it might have thought before the season, and one because of the injury. The New York Knicks were the latter team, but I’m guessing they will now roll with Isaiah Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa, Jericho Sims and maybe another, cheaper option.

Would the Oklahoma City Thunder be interested? Chet Holmgren is awesome, but do you want him dealing with the problems in the paint the Nuggets, Lakers, Pelicans or others present in a potential playoff gauntlet? I believe if the Thunder trade Dāvis Bertāns and his $17 million contract (runs through 2024-25), they’ll take a bigger swing, but Dāvis Bertāns plus one of the Thunder’s embarrassment of first-round picks is a possibility.

More likely: The Raptors keep Poeltl and hope he can build his value back once the roster makes a little more sense.

Eric, do you think the Raptors would engage the Knicks in trade discussions for OG if the team decides to entertain offers? How much of an impediment is the lawsuit to doing business with a franchise it’s been sued by? — Bobby E.

I wrote this four days before the Anunoby trade, and I will keep it in, because how often do I get to be so clearly correct? Now, I will quote myself.

“It would be malpractice not to seek out a very logical suitor with surplus draft picks for the Raptors, just as it would be malpractice by the Knicks not to try to improve by inquiring about a player who could help them, no matter who he plays for,” I wrote.

“Now, could egos get in the way of that? Absolutely. It might be a tiebreaker, but I doubt it would stop any conversations from at least happening. The issue is more at an ownership level than a management level.”

Now that we have a decent sample size, what’s your evaluation of Darko Rajaković as head coach? — Ilan S.

I don’t have one. It’s a cop-out, but Rajaković was brought in as counter-programming to Nick Nurse — to lean into optimism, patience and development. He has largely done what the front office wants him to do. It hasn’t worked for the same reason the roster struggled under Nurse.

I would have liked to see him be a bit more experimental with his lineups sooner. I’m not sure his timeout usage has always been great. On the other hand, the team seems to have bought into what he’s preaching, and I’ve seen some good after-timeout play calls. Ask me again after next season.

GO DEEPER

As much as Darko Rajaković is changing the Raptors, they are changing him, too

We all ooh and ahh at how great Masai is at drafting and developing players — could we have this wrong? Jeff Weltman was the GM in Toronto during its glory years of drafting and developing players and is now doing the same thing in Orlando. So is it Weltman rather than Masai who is the genius? Look at our picks since he left and look at Weltman’s in Orlando. I think Masai needs to go! — NOW! — Frank S.

Seven — SEVEN! — lottery picks in Weltman’s tenure in Orlando have yielded Jonathan Isaac (sixth, 2017), Mo Bamba (sixth, 2018), Jalen Suggs (fifth, 2021), Franz Wagner (eighth, 2021), Paolo Banchero (first, 2022), Anthony Black (sixth, 2023) and Jett Howard (11th in 2021). I’d classify those picks, in order, as bad injury luck, whiff, solid single, home run, solid single (it was the first pick) and two picks that are far too early to call. I like Weltman, but it’s not as if the Magic have aced every test.

When panning Masai and Bobby’s recent draft record, why is the fact they chose the best player in the 2021 draft with the fourth pick never mentioned? — Kevin K.

Do you see what I did here, putting these two questions one after another? This is why I get paid the moderate bucks, friends.

Keeping in mind these rankings always change — last year, Barnes would have been listed behind Franz Wagner and Evan Mobley, at least — it should be mentioned. It was a bold pick at the time, and it looks like they nailed it. It is just that every other developmental swing they have taken since 2020 has failed, or at least not been a notable win. None of the misses are as important as landing Barnes, but in totality, they are just as or even more important.

How concerning is Gradey Dick’s play as a rookie to this point? What do you think are the chances he works out? — Ben T.

As of this writing, Dick is currently posting -0.03 win shares per 48 minutes. Not good. Here is an incomplete list of players who debuted between 2016 and 2019 who had negative win shares in their entire rookie seasons: RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Collin Sexton, De’Aaron Fox, Darius Garland, Jordan Poole, Gary Trent Jr. There are many more busts than hits, but let’s not go calling this one just yet.

Why has there been a drop-off on defence this season when the team is relatively healthy? Especially players like Siakam, Poetl, Dennis Schröder and Trent who were better in previous years. — Sushanth S.

This is the most fascinating question regarding the actual basketball the Raptors are playing. The Raptors entered the new year ranked 15th in defensive rating. I have nothing near a conclusive answer, but here are some quick-hit thoughts.

• Anunoby wasn’t as good as last year on the ball, especially in his last 10 or so games as a Raptor.• Poeltl’s IQ doesn’t make up for his so-so rim protection as Marc Gasol’s did.• The bench is/was full of players who can be exposed on multiple actions.• The Raptors’ greatest strength defensively might be causing turnovers, not stopping the ball. By moving away from that, perhaps they have revealed the team has more playmaking defenders than solid defenders. (Barnes is the ultimate example of this, both in positive and negative ways.)

Quickley is a plus-defender for his size, while Barrett is fine. Losing Anunoby will hurt, which will require the Raptors to get on the same page. That has been a problem.

I don’t want to go through what the Pistons are right now, but would the Raptors be able to get enough draft capital from a Pascal trade? — Andrew P.

My working assumption, given Siakam’s contractual situation, is that he would land the Raptors one interesting pick and one interesting young player. That will not be the whole trade, assuming it happens, and I would guess there would be other assets coming back in the Raptors’ direction, some of them intriguing. But for those of you waiting for a Donovan Mitchell or Dejounte Murray trade, keep waiting.

It will be on the Raptors to do some serious scouting and developing, both in the NBA and outside of the league, to put a compelling and sensible team around Scottie Barnes.

If MLSE called you up and said you were taking over for Masai tomorrow, what are the top two changes you would make immediately? —Ian M.

1. Demand game operations turn down the volume of music in Scotiabank Arena.

2. Make sure a half-section in the upper bowl featured $10 tickets, making them exclusively available for purchase by local community groups. What, these weren’t the changes you were hoping for?

How hard is it to report on this team that has been in the same situation for so long? Only Barnes is a developing player with Dick struggling so there isn’t much of a developmental angle to report on. The team itself isn’t going to develop as constructed into a winner. How long can we talk about trades that never happen? Can you talk about how you find new narratives in this situation to report on?

My second question. Don’t the decision-makers have to take into account the staleness of the narrative and fan engagement? — James R.

Full disclosure: I have a really good job, and all complaints are relative.

With that said, you hit on the crux of covering this team. People like a good story, good or bad. There is a staleness to the Raptors’ situation, and analyses of where they stand or trade possibilities can only carry you so far. (People do love fake trades, though.) I’m not sure I have a great answer about this, other than to say the more time I spend around the Raptors’ players and staff, the more I learn about them. The more I learn about them, the more stories come to the surface, some of which have nothing to do with basketball. Having two new players to report on — two players who will change the context of the team — is welcome from this perspective. I cannot lie about that.

I won’t comment on the (handsome, intelligent) decision-makers. However, if the team is still in nowhere-land after the trade deadline, I could very well branch out a bit more around the league, while still keeping myself engaged with the Raptors.

How much time do we have to show Scottie that he can be a winner here? — Elisabeth B.

I get the impetus behind this question. Certainly, no NBA team, especially one not in a traditionally desirable NBA market, can afford to assume its star is and will remain happy. Saying that, there is little to no precedent about stars being unhappy before they have signed their first rookie extension.

There were whispers that Mitchell didn’t want to be in Utah long term and concerns with Zion Williamson in New Orleans. Both ended up signing extensions, and Mitchell leaving Utah was as much a mutual decision as anything. Williamson is still with the Pelicans.

The Raptors are going to need to show progress, for sure. No player wants to achieve success in his rookie year and not get back to that level deep into his career. Barnes has shown no signs of being unhappy as a Raptor. You can comfortably allow Barnes to at least play out one season of what I assume will be his new contract — so, the 2025-26 season — before getting too concerned about Barnes’ state of mind.

Does the unavailability of the Raptors front office to the media follow the standard in the league? I see a lot of interviews in The Athletic (was just reading the one by the owner of the Pistons). Raptors fans would like to get a glimpse of their thinking, even an expression of their own disappointment about where the season is heading would go a long way to show that they give a damn about the lost season. Some self-criticism would be welcome too. — Lazaros O.

League rules do not mandate front-office/ownership talk to the media at all. (Go talk to my buddy on the Knicks beat, Fred Katz, about that.) Certainly, management teams feel less compelled to speak publicly these days compared to even a decade ago. Ujiri almost always talks to the media both before and after the season, and one of he or Bobby Webster has generally spoken after the trade deadline and draft. They could speak more, but they could speak much, much less too.

Trust me, the front office cares. I’m sure they are not desperate to talk to me — *smiles broadly* — but not putting an air of desperation or urgency out in the world for other teams to see is likely the bigger decision in not speaking. The Raptors like to move in relative silence, as the Anunoby/Quickley trade further proved.

At the same time, I understand why the media would want to hear Ujiri speak now. It’s not just an explanation people want. It’s a reflection of their frustration.

(Top photo of Masai Ujiri: Mark Blinch / Getty Images)