Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Kikuchi, Flexen duel should lead to early runs

The Toronto Blue Jays return home after a 2-7 road trip that saw them lose all three series.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has dropped 10 of its last 15 contests to fall 7.5 games back of the division-leading New York Yankees. Yusei Kikuchi will get the ball for Monday’s series opener against his former team, the Seattle Mariners, and look to build off his best two starts of the season.

Check out our top Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for May 16.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks overview

Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks

Best bet: Over 4.5 runs, first five innings (-120)

This is less of an endorsement of either offence and more of a slight fade on both starting pitchers.

Kikuchi (more on him later) has been wildly inconsistent during his first season with Toronto, while Chris Flexen’s inability to miss bats makes him hard to fully trust.

Toronto’s offence has not lived up to expectations (22nd in runs per game, 19th in OPS after being third and first, respectively, last season), and has been particularly cold in May with a 72 wRC+.

Read more: Mariners vs. Blue Jays prop picks

That ranks 28th in baseball after the team posted a mark of 110 through the first month. Their 112 wRC+ in 2021 was second in MLB. Why bring up last season? Because this is largely the same offence.

Toronto’s top of the order (George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez) remains dangerous and is bound to power the offence to a turnaround. Today is a good opportunity to do just that.

Right-handed hitters, which all of those top four are, have posted an .825 OPS against Flexen and he’s 34th in contact rate among 94 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings. He’s 85th in strikeout rate among that same group. Expect balls to be put in play.

Flexen was shelled in his last outing and has allowed homers in four of his six starts. If Toronto is going to hit around a starter early, this feels like the game that happens.

Key stat: Seattle has allowed an average of 2.60 runs through the first five innings (the ninth most in MLB).

Quick picks

Kikuchi over 5.5 strikeouts (+117): The lefty has punched out seven batters in back-to-back starts after tinkering with his repertoire. While he has only cleared this bar twice in six outings, he’s coming off his two longest starts of the year and struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings over his last two campaigns.

Though Seattle isn’t overly prone to striking out (19th in K rate), there’s some solid value here as a plus-money prop.

Mariners over 3.5 runs (-120): While Kikuchi has rebounded in May, we can’t ignore his control problems. He has a 14.9% walk rate — the third-highest mark among pitchers (minimum 20 innings). The southpaw has walked three-plus batters in four of his starts and the Mariners have MLB’s top walk rate against left-handers.

That combination should allow Seattle to get runners on early and put pressure on Kikuchi, who will be facing a lineup that has the eighth-best wRC+ (112) versus lefties. If the Mariners can touch up Kikuchi a bit, they will then get a Jays bullpen that has the 10th-worst ERA and struggles to miss bats.

Odds courtesy of Sportradar, via NorthStar Bets, as of 9:57 a.m. ET on 05/16/2022.

CT

Chris Toman writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @Chris_Toman SHARE:

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