Maple Leafs’ Justin Holl and the struggling defence: ‘It’s been snowballing here’

LOS ANGELES – Justin Holl stood at centre ice after practice the other day and heard what his head coach had to say.

“Justin likes really direct and honest feedback,” Sheldon Keefe said. “Certainly, a little more direct here today because I think it’s been snowballing here, and it hasn’t taken the positive steps we’d like it to.”

The snowball got even a little larger on Saturday night.

Holl, maybe the Leafs’ most effective penalty killing-defenceman, took two penalties, both of which led to power-play goals against. He was also on the ice for the other two goals against in the Leafs’ third straight loss, this one to the Kings.

Overall this season, the Leafs are winning less than 44 percent of the expected goals when Holl is on the ice.

The Leafs need that to change. Holl is too important for them right now. Injuries to Jake Muzzin and Timothy Liljegren, not to mention the coaching staff’s unwillingness to stretch Mark Giordano, the oldest defenceman in the league this season, make Holl the third most important member of the defence behind Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie.

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He’s the only healthy right shot in the group, the only guy the Leafs really have at the moment to play RD in the top four behind Brodie.

The Leafs have no way to insulate him right now.

Holl is averaging 20 minutes per game this season, third on the defence behind Rielly (23.5) and Brodie (21).

Only Brodie plays more on the penalty kill. And since Muzzin has been sidelined, Holl trails only Brodie in five-on-five action. He’s out there a lot, and it’s not going well.

Holl said Keefe’s message hinged on doing more — doing better — and driving play.

For the first three seasons of his NHL career, Holl fared pretty well in that department. Even though he was playing some of the thornier minutes on the team, Holl posted strong underlying numbers, 53 percent of the scoring in his first season, 53 percent in year two, and 56 percent last season.

The Leafs outscored teams when Holl was on the ice, even though he was swimming in defensive zone faceoffs, often against the best the opposition could throw out there.

Of course, there was the start of last season to consider. The one that looked a whole lot like the one this season.

Only it wasn’t quite this bad.

It was bad enough that Holl was scratched for five consecutive games, beginning on Oct. 30. Or one year ago exactly.

The Leafs were deeper on the back end at that point though. They really can’t afford to do that now – scratch Holl. Victor Mete, a fringe-y NHL defenceman, and Filip Kral, just getting started in the league, are the sixth and seventh available options.

Liljegren’s return next month will give Keefe and his staff more flexibility to move things around.

Eventually, the Leafs can, if things haven’t improved by then, lighten Holl’s load. Send Liljegren into top-four duty and drop Holl down onto the third pair, where he can play fewer minutes against lighter competition and still kill penalties.

Until then? They may have to contemplate getting Holl some help, more help than 22-year-old Rasmus Sandin can offer.

Ideally for Holl, that’s Brodie.

Holl played almost 400 minutes with Brodie last season. The Leafs won over 60 percent of the expected goals.

Brodie lifts partners that way.

That would leave Keefe and his staff to ponder who should play with Rielly. Even if it’s an ill-fitting Sandin, the Leafs may have to make the move simply to stabilize things (or try to) for Holl.

Alternatively, they could reconnect Giordano with Holl.

The Leafs haven’t been inclined to throw too much at Giordano though. He played less than 16 minutes against the Kings and is averaging only 17.5 minutes per game this season.

Keefe may have no choice but to break up Rielly and Brodie in the name of balance. Top-four minutes – and competition – feel like too much right now for Sandin, especially with Holl struggling.

The Leafs can find some silver lining in the fact that Holl did eventually turn things around last season. He was scratched again in Games 1 and 2 against Tampa, but replaced Liljegren for the remainder of that playoff series and fared well.

Holl is clearly lacking in confidence at the moment. At times it looks like he would rather not have the puck. There’s a hesitation to his game, never more apparent than when Matt Nieto and Logan Couture outmaneuvered him, somehow, for the first goal in San Jose earlier in the week.

As to how someone in his position could regain confidence, Holl said, “I think it’s just knowing what you do.”

Then he explained what that meant: “You might be killing plays in the d-zone and making good breakout passes. It might be playing well in the neutral zone and (moving the puck quickly up the ice), putting the forwards in good positions with the puck.”

Holl thought a “good metric” for determining a defenceman’s effectiveness was whether he was playing more in the offensive zone or defensive zone. “Because if you’re doing the right things you’re gonna be playing more o-zone, and if you’re not doing the right things you’re gonna be scrambling more in your d-zone,” he said.

It’s been too much of the latter so far for Holl. Too much scrambling. Too much uncertainty. Not enough plays killed.

With Keefe’s urging, Holl has been focused on improving his play with the puck.

“You want to just be smart with your puck touches and get the puck in the forwards’ hands in a good spot,” Holl said.

He’s hardly the only struggling Leaf at the moment. The offence has ground to a halt, with lines led by Auston Matthews and John Tavares both failing to convert at five-on-five. As a group, the Leafs look shockingly out of sorts.

“We don’t lack confidence as a team,” Keefe said after the loss to the Kings. “We just have to execute.”

Holl is crucial to those efforts. As the Leafs coach said, “He’s an important guy that we need to get more out of.”

(Top photo by Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey