Maple Leafs’ costly miscues mean their season is now on the line

TAMPA, Fla. — Game 6 was close to even five-on-five, and if anything, it was favouring the Leafs.

Shot attempts were 64-61 in their favour. Scoring chances were 34-33 for the Lightning. The Leafs won the expected goals fight — at 53 percent — and outscored the two-time defending champs by two goals.

A series of costly miscues proved critical during the Leafs’ 4-3 loss in their first chance to close out the Lightning. Now Toronto faces an all-or-nothing Game 7 on Saturday.

Miscue No. 1: Alex Kerfoot’s giveaway with a little more than two minutes left in the first period. Thinking T.J. Brodie was coming up behind him, not joining him through the middle on the rush, Kerfoot dropped a pass that was promptly picked off by Ondrej Palat.

The result: 1-0 Tampa on a goal from Palat that just beat Jack Campbell.

Miscue No. 2: The Leafs were on their first (and only) power play of the game in the second period. Ilya Mikheyev’s soft backhand flip to Michael Bunting on a PP2 zone entry was picked off at the line by Anthony Cirelli.

The result: 2-0 Tampa on a short-handed goal from Cirelli.

The Leafs stormed back. Auston Matthews scored another goal in the series. John Tavares scored his first two five-on-five goals of the series to give Toronto a one-goal lead heading into the third period.

Miscue No. 3: Eight minutes into that period, David Kampf was whistled for high-sticking Cal Foote. In real time, it looked like a penalty — Kampf’s stick was up high; Foote’s head snapped back. But slowed down on replay, it looked questionable. Still, it’s a penalty nonetheless.

“I have the benefit of slow-motion replay,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said afterward. “The officials don’t.”

With Kampf in the box, the Leafs sent Kerfoot to join Mitch Marner on the penalty kill. Kerfoot gained some steam up ice, only to get entangled with 6-foot-6 Victor Hedman. Kerfoot was called for another high-sticking penalty.

Stick fouls have been a problem all series for the Leafs. These two gave the Lightning a five-on-three advantage for nearly two full minutes.

“It’s tough giving up power plays to a team like this,” Matthews said.

The result: The score was tied 3-3 on a power-play goal from Nikita Kucherov.

To sum it up: Two giveaways led directly to goals. Two back-to-back penalties led to a third. Three miscues. Three Lightning goals. Too many big miscues in a game with little room for error. With a bang-bang play in overtime, the Leafs are getting that Game 7 they would have liked to avoid.

Morgan Rielly spoke about how even things were in Game 6.

“I thought both goalies played good. Both teams were able to play good defensively for parts of the game and create offence,” Rielly said. “This time of year in an overtime playoff game, it’s a small margin that separates winners and losers.”

And yet there were plenty of positives for the Leafs in defeat, plenty that bode well heading into Game 7.

For one thing, the start. The Leafs showed none of the tentativeness that’s plagued them in other big games, including Game 4 in this series. They kept coming despite facing a two-goal deficit.

“We never went away,” Matthews said, “even when we were down 2-0.”

Matthews was also dominant for a second consecutive game. He made the Cirelli matchup irrelevant in Game 6. The Leafs won almost 80 percent of the expected goals in the 16 minutes Matthews shared the ice with Cirelli.

The Leafs’ No. 1 line spent most of the night in attack mode, just as Matthews had hoped it would.

An advantage that seemed to be slipping away earlier in the series has turned definitively back in the Leafs’ direction, thanks largely to Matthews. Playing at home Saturday, the Leafs can press that advantage and use the Matthews line for more shifts against Tampa’s Steven Stamkos-led No. 1 unit.

Matthews played over 28 minutes in Game 6. He tipped a Mark Giordano shot past Andrei Vasilevskiy for his fourth goal of the series. He also threw nine more hits, won 19 of 29 draws and was all over the puck. (An unfortunate fall left him out of the play in overtime.)

Also encouraging for the Leafs is how Tavares has come around. He’s had two straight multi-point games.

The ice was still tilted in the wrong direction when he was out there, but things improved in the second half. Getting some offence to support Matthews was a big deal. After a sluggish start, Tavares has three goals and six points in the series, winning nearly 65 percent of his draws.

He has benefited from now-and-again spins with William Nylander, who drew in two defenders to free Tavares for the go-ahead goal Thursday. Nylander is up to seven points in the series, trailing only Matthews, among Leafs players, with eight.

Keefe wisely sprinkled in Nylander for shifts with Matthews and Tavares, as well as Kampf, in Game 6. That mixing and matching puts a little more pressure on Tampa.

The Leafs’ stars have emerged as this series has rolled along in a way they haven’t in past postseasons.

Also noteworthy: Campbell outplayed Vasilevskiy.

None of it (or most of it) will matter without a win in Game 7.

The Leafs have responded all series, most impressively in Game 5 and even again in falling behind 2-0 in Game 6. The ultimate season-defining response will be required in Game 7. Fewer big, glaring miscues are a must.

“What’s in the past is in the past, man,” Matthews said. “We can’t change that now. It’s about this next game and going out there with a purpose and with details and just competing for 60 minutes or whatever it takes. We just gotta put our balls on the line and go for it.”

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

(Top photo: Andrew Bershaw / Icon_Sportswire)