Map Shows Where Putin’s Forces Most Likely to Fail in Ukraine

A new map showing where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army is most likely to lose ground in Ukraine was released by the U.K.’s defense ministry on Thursday, the day after his top defense official announced the ongoing offensive was “deliberately” slowing.

The map shows that what it described as a “Likely Ukrainian Advance” is taking place at three points along the war front, with arrows showing the direction each is progressing. One of these likely Ukrainian advances is in the northeastern Kharkiv region, pushing down and slightly to the east, roughly toward the Russian-occupied city of Izium. A stretch of land next to Izium is also marked on the map as a “contested area.”

The second advance appears to be pushing from a central part of the Dnipropetrovsk region in southeastern Ukraine toward Russian-occupied territory in the southern Kherson region. The last begins in a central area of the southern Mykolaiv region and pushes down toward Russian-occupied land in a lower section of the region. For the possible advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv, the arrows are pointing directly at patches of contested territory.

When Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, many expected his army to secure a speedy victory. But as the war reached its six-month anniversary on Wednesday, the Russian leader’s prospects for victory looked unclear. Territorial assessments of Ukraine show that Putin’s forces still control a stretch of territory in the eastern and southern parts of the country, but those likely Ukrainian advances pinpointed by the U.K., if true, could potentially chip away at his gains.

Ukrainian soldiers ride a tank on a road in the Donetsk region on August 13, amid the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. A new map showing where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army is most likely to lose ground in Ukraine was released by the U.K.’s defense ministry on Thursday Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images

When Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday that the military was moderating the speed of the offensive, he framed it as a measure to protect civilians.

“Everything is being done to avoid casualties among civilians,” he said at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan. “Of course, this slows down the pace of the offensive, but we are doing this deliberately.”

Shoigu also said during the meeting that Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine was going according to plan and all of its goals would be achieved, according to an English translation of a Telegram post from Russia’s defense ministry.

Ukraine’s defense ministry mocked the minister’s explanation for Russia’s campaign pace in a tweet, calling Shoigu the “king of ‘goodwill gestures.'”

“We promise to do our best to turn this ‘slowdown’ into a good old-fashioned retreat. Or as Russians like to say… a reversed offensive,” it added.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its August 24 Russian campaign assessment that Shoigu’s statement may have been an attempt to excuse “negligible gains” Putin’s army has made in the last six weeks. The ISW assessed that after Russia’s military resumed operations following a temporary pause in July, it has only gained about 450 square kilometers in new territory. Meanwhile, Russia has lost 45,000 square kilometers in territory since March 21, the ISW said.

“As ISW has previously assessed, Russian forces are unable to translate limited tactical gains into wider operational successes, and their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are culminating. Shoigu’s statement is likely an attempt to explain away these failings,” the report added.

Newsweek reached out to the defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine for comment.