Manchester City v Aston Villa: Premier League – live!

Hello and welcome to live coverage of Manchester City v Aston Villa from the Etihad Stadium. In case you’ve been at a digital retreat on the Kerguelen Islands for the last month, here’s how the land lies. If City beat Villa they will be champions of England for the fourth time in five years, and Pep Guardiola will be a unique genius. If they don’t, and Liverpool win against Wolves at Anfield, City will endure the nightmare of a trophyless season – not to mention a potential Liverpool quadruple – and Pep Guardiola will be just another bald fraud in a world full of them.

In an ideal world (arf!), every title race would go the wire. The inequality of modern football means it happens less and less. Even in England, where things are relatively competitive, this is only the ninth time it has occurred in 30 years of the Premier League. On the last four occasions, starting in 2012, City have been top of the league going into the final games.

You can trace the modern history of City, and the change in their DNA, through the extreme emotions of the last day. It could be an eight-part Netflix series, with a naff subtitle: From Cityitis to City titles.

Before Abu Dhabi, City were, well, what the acronym says. They lost a relegation decider at home to Luton in 1982-83, signed their own death warrant by the corner flag in 1995-96 and put a goalkeeper up front before missing a last-minute penalty to qualify for the Uefa Cup in 2004-05.

My university friend and City fan Steve Buckley has generously pointed out some other comedy classics: the Eddie Large fiasco at Bournemouth in 1988-89 (technically that was on the penultimate weekend, but it’s too good to ignore, and what the hell let’s have a bit of Jamie Pollock while we’re here) and Stuart Pearce missing a penalty freebie – with two goalscoring records at stake – in 2001-02. A Harvard study proved categorically that, had Pearce been playing for any football club in Christendom at the time, he would have scored that penalty.

That was then and this is now. That was just nostalgia. City don’t do comedy classics anymore, certainly not domestically. Their identity changed on 13 May 2012, like Dale Cooper being possessed by Killer BOB only in reverse, when they recovered from a potentially devastating strain of Cityitis to win the Premier League in uniquely euphoric circumstances. A part of Manchester City died that day, and their fans don’t want it back.

On the next two occasions City needed a result in their final game to win the title, against West Ham in 2014 and Brighton in 2019, they dealt calmly with the pressure and had the job done after about an hour. All things being equal, it’ll be the same today. But things aren’t always equal in football, especially not on the final day. Villa getting a result is highly improbable, but it’s not impossible.

For City, the presence of Steven Gerrard, Philippe Coutinho and even Danny Ings at Villa has given this game an unnervingly whiffy narrative. The nightmare of Liverpool winning the league would be compounded if Gerrard was on the field at the final whistle, cavorting in slip-on brogues like David Pleat in 1983. But the unexpected return of Kyle Walker and John Stones will assuage the fear of watching Fernandinho, in his last game for the club, getting sent off for a professional foul on Ollie Watkins in the first 10 minutes.

Look, we shouldn’t build this game up too much. Villa could get a result, but the likely scenario is that Pep will be doing karaoke, Brobdingnagian cigar in hand, by about 10pm.

The last day of the season has never been a time for nuance. There are only two ways this can go: another City title, or the return of Cityitis.

Kick off 4pm.