Lowetide: What to expect from the Oilers’ 2023 NHL Draft after trading first-round pick

In 44 years of draft history, the Edmonton Oilers have traded the team’s first-round pick twice.

In 2006, the selection was sent to the Minnesota Wild for Dwayne Roloson, who backstopped the team to the Stanley Cup Final.

Earlier this month, general manager Ken Holland sent Edmonton’s first-round selection in 2023 to the Nashville Predators for defenceman Mattias Ekholm. The organization is banking on another trip to the final and early results are encouraging.

What does it mean for the organization?

After years of deadlines that were spent tinkering with the periphery of the roster, the club finally delivered a big piece. It’s go time in the Connor McDavid era and fans should expect sell-out deadlines through the end of McDavid’s contract, and beyond if he signs a third deal with Edmonton.

What does that mean for this year’s draft?

As of today, the Oilers’ selection would be No. 21 in each round. Since Edmonton no longer has the first-round pick in its possession, the scouting staff is slated to choose first in the No. 53 slot.

Edmonton also has picks in the fifth round (No. 149), sixth round (No. 181) and seventh round (No. 213).

Expect a trade

Holland dealt a pick for two lower ones in the 2020 and 2021 drafts:

It’s likely the trend will continue; expect the first Oilers selection to land somewhere between 65-75 and the additional selection to land after pick No. 100 based on recent deals.

The 2023 draft is a deep one so the value of an individual pick may be higher than normal this summer.

Expect another skill draft

Edmonton’s amateur scouting staff is led by Holland, director of amateur scouting and player personnel Tyler Wright and chief amateur scout Bob Green. The current team has been together and making selections that impacted the 2020 draft and later editions.

This group has shown two specific tendencies at the draft: A preference for skill forwards and defencemen with size and speed. It would be inaccurate to suggest both things are rigid requirements, but the men selected since 2020 reflect the scouting predilection.

Edmonton has had success with the skill forwards drafted since 2020, with Dylan Holloway the first official arrival from the draft list created by Wright and Green. The forwards have progressed well year over year. Several in this group are tracking as successful pro players and some will land in the NHL for a time.

PlayerDraft LgePlus 1 LgePlus 2 LgePlus 3 Lge

Dylan Holloway

49 NCAA

1.52 NCAA

.67 AHL

.18 NHL

Carter Savoie

1.83 AJHL

.83 NCAA

1.15 NCAA

.3 AHL

Tyler Tullio

1.06 OHL

.68 Slovak

1.32 OHL

.51 AHL

M Berezkin

1.06 MHL

1.12 MHL

1.59 MHL

.5 KHL

X Bourgault

1.38 QMJHL

1.74 QMJHL

.55 AHL

Jake Chiasson

.87 WHL

.9 WHL

.98 WHL

Matvey Petrov

.72 MHL

1.43 OHL

1.44 OHL

S Lachance

.6 NCDC

.42 USHL

.9 USHL

Reid Schaefer

.88 WHL

1.1 WHL

Joel Maatta

.19 NCAA

.4 NCAA

Holloway has passed the 50-game mark in the NHL; the best bets after that are Bourgault, Tullio, Savoie, Matvey Petrov and Maxim Berezkin if he signs with Edmonton.

What kind of skill?

The Oilers will have one or two picks in the top 100 of the 2023 draft, so need to make the most of it. One of the key elements for the scouting staff will be to analyze the prospect pipeline and evaluate the wisdom of drafting a smaller forward.

That kind of player is usually available at the point the team will make its first pick.

An example from the 2022 draft is Jordan Dumais, a small but brilliant QMJHL forward. In his draft year, he posted 1.6 points per game in the league and still hung around until No. 96, when he was taken by the Columbus Blue Jackets. That kind of player will be available every year much later than his talent suggests (Dumais was a top 20 talent a year ago).

Holland and the scouting staff may decide to attempt an immediate replacement for big winger Reid Schaefer, sacrificed in the deal with the Predators for Ekholm. There are candidates who qualify, although foot speed will be an issue after the top power forward prospects are off the board (usually taken in the first round).

What else?

If a complete defenceman with size and speed falls, expect Edmonton to pick him. The organization lacks anyone worth getting excited about in the pipeline, but has graduated two fine young talents (Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg) and looks set with depth pieces like Markus Niemelainen and Phil Kemp. If no defender is taken in the top 100, we could see one or even two added to a group that includes just Munzenberger, Nikita Yevseyev and Max Wanner outside the pro level.

Edmonton has drafted just one goaltender in the last three years, so that could be a target for the team. However, Stuart Skinner is a recent home-run pick so another goaltender, if selected, could be a later pick.

Specific draft targets

Using Bob McKenzie’s consensus list via TSN, there are players who could be attractive targets for Edmonton in the 65-75 range.

Bradly Nadeau is an undersized (5-foot-10, 163 pounds) forward who plays in a tier-two league (BCHL). His offensive numbers (39-60-99 in 48 games) are exceptional and he is often described as an intelligent player. He has good speed, is a fine passer and McKenzie ranked him No. 36, but he could easily slip due to his size. Corey Pronman has him as a first-round talent in his latest ranking for The Athletic, and Scott Wheeler ranks him in about the same spot in his rankings for The Athletic.

Edmonton might want to select Gavin Brindley if he falls on draft day. He is a small forward (5-foot-9, 157 pounds) who displays great skill and awareness for Michigan (Big Ten).

Replacing Schaefer may be easier than finding an undersized skill forward this year.

Coulson Pitre is a right winger with speed, good hands and a power forward’s mentality. He is not a big man (6-foot-1, 172 pounds) but his resume has everything Wright looks for in a forward. He has speed, great anticipation and plays a consistent, physical game. Pitre isn’t getting much attention, the bet here is the Oilers value what he brings.

Among defencemen, Tristan Bertucci fits the size/speed requirement the Oilers established under Holland with the selection of Broberg in 2019. Edmonton might get him in the fourth round based on current rankings. He looks like a reasonable bet.

Specific non-draft targets

It’s early days of spring signing season for NHL teams, as undrafted players not eligible for the draft will be signing out of college in the coming weeks.

There are a few names that should interest the Oilers in this area and in some cases signing a player before the draft could inform the team’s draft priority list.

Notre Dame goaltender Ryan Bischel has decent size (6-foot-1, 190 pounds) and has posted two strong seasons in a row. Yaniv Perets from Quinnipiac is another college goalie who has been money in the last two seasons.

Jake Livingstone might be the most attractive possibility among the college options. A big right-handed defenceman (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), he has a nice range of skills and, if signed, would immediately represent one of the best young players outside the NHL in Edmonton’s system.

Carter Wilkie from Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) is an intriguing winger who plays a rugged style and can score goals. The Oilers would have scouted him in the BCHL in his seasons there and will have good knowledge on his pro ability.

Ryan McAllister (Western Michigan) would be known to Edmonton’s scouts before heading to college because of his time with the Brooks Bandits of the AJHL. He stepped into college hockey at 20 and delivered (12-34-46 in 37 games) a quality season.

The draft and everything after

Oilers fans should expect that second-round pick to be turned into two thirds.

Based on the team’s recent drafting, athletes with size, speed and determination will once again be the priority.

As much as a small forward with gaudy offensive numbers might be the right call, it’s a good guess Edmonton chooses another power forward prospect with the first selection.

Bet on Pitre. He checks all the boxes, is an older player in this draft (Edmonton often chooses from the more mature end of the draft). His opening 26 games (9-14-23) were solid but the most recent 26-game run (13-18-31) suggests he has turned a corner.

(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)