Lowetide: Should the Oilers re-sign trade deadline acquisition Nick Bjugstad?

The Edmonton Oilers’ depth chart at centre is the strongest single position in the NHL today. It isn’t close.

Connor McDavid is the best player in the game, playing at his peak, which is the pinnacle for this generation until he exceeds it next year. Leon Draisaitl is also elite, playing a different but brilliant game that combines breathtaking passes and a shot best described as a hammer of the gods.

As if that isn’t enough, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, a man with a complete skill set, is also a centre and effective on a skill line or a shutdown unit.

After that, Ryan McLeod is one of the fastest young players in the game and learning the finer points of playing the position. He has a long career as an NHL centre ahead of him, and might spend time on a skill line as a pivot if not for the ridiculous talent ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Oilers also acquired centre Nick Bjugstad at the deadline, and he has played well.

Some observers are talking about signing the veteran in the summer, bringing him back for a year or more. It may come down to choosing two of Bjugstad, Derek Ryan or Devin Shore.

Why would general manager Ken Holland choose this direction? What does Bjugstad bring that is unique?

Handedness

Before he arrived, five of Edmonton’s six established roster centres this season were left-handed, with Ryan the only exception before the arrival of Bjugstad.

Additionally, Ryan is more effective on right wing than at pivot, although he does take a large number of faceoffs and is successful. Here are the numbers for all Edmonton centres this season, along with Bjugstad’s combined Arizona Coyotes and Edmonton totals.

Faceoffs include all game states  and zones

Bjugstad takes a large number of faceoffs (14 a game) and more defensive zone faceoffs (467, seven per game, 44.5 percent success rate) than any other Oilers centre.

Bjugstad also takes many short-handed faceoffs, 180 this season including the Coyotes and Oilers games.

Since arriving in Edmonton, he has emerged as a consistent option for the coaching staff in the defensive zone. Here are the numbers for defensive-zone draws by Oilers centres in 2022-23.

Faceoffs include all game states  and zones

Bjugstad is having great success with the Oilers early in an important area. If he can deliver those results down the stretch against substantial opponents, and in the playoffs, signing him because more of a priority.

Game states

Bjugstad as an even-strength option is a solid NHL player when healthy. During the 2022-23 season, including both teams, he is scoring 0.9 goals per 60 and 1.60 points per 60. Those are quality numbers and justify playing middle-six minutes. His goal share at even strength is 54 percent, with an expected goal percentage of 48 percent.

What about special teams?

Bjugstad has been on the ice for less than 43 minutes this season on the power play, so it isn’t considered a strength. He was effective over a five-year period in the middle of the last decade with the man advantage, and there might be some temptation by the coaching staff to try him as a net-front presence.

On a team as deep as the Oilers, it is unlikely to emerge as a consistent option.

The penalty kill is a different situation. Edmonton needs help short-handed and Bjugstad has experience in the discipline.

During his time in Arizona this year, he was the No. 1 centre in ice time per game (2:10), No. 2 in GA/60 (9.38) and No. 2 in high-danger chances against per 60 (36).

The Oilers are using him often on the PK. His 1:32 per game is second to Nugent-Hopkins among centres in March, and his 4.33 GA/60 is second to McDavid among centres in terms of success rate this month.

Before he was acquired the Oilers were giving up 9.26 goals per 60, and since his arrival, the total is 9.12 per 60. The sample is small, and the improvement minute, but the additional help allows the team to rest more prominent centres without worrying about a falloff in performance.

Versatility

Bjugstad brings size, scoring ability in a third-line role and some penalty-killing acumen.

He has also been a solid five-on-five outscorer over most of the last six seasons, the exception being his 2021-22 season with the Minnesota Wild.

That kind of consistency, added to being a right-handed centre, makes him an attractive trade and free-agent target.

Should the Oilers sign him?

The short answer is yes. Edmonton should re-sign Ryan too, giving Edmonton a pair of right-handed forwards who can win faceoffs and work effectively in a utility role.

Bjugstad is an example of a high-skill forward who has had his value beaten down via injury.

There’s a vagueness about his career, about what he’s good at, because there isn’t the kind of track record one associates with a player who made his NHL debut in April 2013.

Bjugstad is 30, and per 82 games in his NHL career is averaging 17-19-36 offensively. Since the fall of 2015-16, his five-on-five goal share is 54.5 percent. He’s 6-foot-6, 209 pounds.

He owns a career shooting percentage of 9.3 and has averaged 2.2 shots per game.

It was never a question of talent, but rather a question of health.

He could help the coaching staff as a No. 3 centre, meaning Draisiatl, Nugent-Hopkins or McLeod could move to one of the wings without having to move Ryan over from right wing or use Shore (another lefty) in the middle. Bjugstad is more likely to score, and outscore on a third line than Shore.

There’s much to like about this player.

The Oilers should sign him, especially if the club can get him under contract on a value deal. Bjugstad is over 600 games into his NHL career, and based on his 16-goal season, based on his 55-percent goal share at five-on-five, he is playing at a level that should allow him to play in the league for the next several years.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)