Lowetide: Should Oilers GM Ken Holland trade the 2023 first-round pick?

For much of the 2022-23 season, Edmonton Oilers fans have been scouring NHL rosters and feverishly looking for the latest trade rumours involving top-four defencemen. In late December, colleague Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic listed four names — Jakob Chychrun, Joel Edmundson, Vladislav Gavrikov and Mattias Ekholm as part of a potential wish list for general manager Ken Holland.

Two weeks later, the names remain in the rumour mill and the Oilers are among the teams likely to aggressively pursue significant solutions on left defence.

The cost will be dear.

Edmonton’s last four first-round selections (Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Reid Schaefer) all have value. A team sending away a veteran defenceman might look at Broberg as a possible replacement, giving him added value in a possible trade of this type.

The real gem, the trade asset with the highest value, may be the team’s first-round pick in 2023. It’s a deep draft with exceptional quality deep into the first round.

Should Holland consider trading the pick?

Timeline for Stanley

The Oilers have Connor McDavid under contract for this season and three more after it. The captain would reach free agency in the summer of 2026. Leon Draisaitl is unrestricted a year earlier, after the 2024-25 campaign.

That’s the timeline for Edmonton to win the Stanley Cup.

One of the key considerations for Holland in dealing the pick is calculating the time it will take for the player chosen to help in a substantial way. In a normal year, the selection would be at least two years from playing in the NHL, probably three full seasons away from contributing enough to make any kind of difference.

Three years from the 2023 draft is 2026-27, after McDavid and Draisaitl reach free agency.

There’s a good chance the player chosen with Edmonton’s pick in 2023 will not contribute within the range of current contracts for 97 and 29.

Where will the Oilers pick?

If the season ended today, going by the current winning percentage, the Oilers would select in the middle of the first round (between 13 and 15) depending on Saturday’s results.

In a traditional season, that’s a pick that will take a few years to emerge as a productive player. Prospects chosen by Edmonton in that range since 2000 include Ales Hemsky, Jesse Niinimaki, Devan Dubnyk and Dylan Holloway.

The only player in that group who was in the NHL as a regular three years after his draft was Hemsky.

If Edmonton needed to lottery protect the selection, it would be a different conversation. Assuming a strong second half of 2022-23, history suggests the organization would be wise to deal the pick for immediate help.

Quality of this year’s draft?

Corey Pronman at The Athletic called the 2023 draft “an above-average draft class” while Scott Wheeler wrote in The Athletic the “class of 2023 is shaping up to be a special one” in recent months.

One name listed by both men in the 12-16 overall range is Oliver Moore, possibly the best skater in the draft (via Pronman). He has a little more offensive acumen (via Wheeler) than other players in the range. Moore plays for the U.S. National Development Team and is one of the leading scorers on the club despite not playing on the top line.

Moore would be a strong candidate for No. 1 on Edmonton’s prospect list if he was chosen by the team. Elite Prospects has him heading to the University of Minnesota in 2024-25, and the traditional graduating and signing for players is after two years in university.

Prospects in the range who might turn pro earlier are centre Calum Ritchie of the Oshawa Generals (OHL), Zach Benson of the Winnipeg Ice (WHL) and centre Riley Heidt of the Prince George Cougars (WHL).

All would be considered candidates for the top prospect in Edmonton’s system.

Can Edmonton afford to trade the pick?

The easy answer is yes. The current prospect pipeline is led by the four first-round selections (Holloway, Broberg, Bourgault, Schaefer in that order) and it isn’t a stretch to suggest an NHL team might prefer the 2023 draft pick for the build/rebuild.

The trade of the pick, added to the graduations of Broberg, Holloway, Stuart Skinner and Markus Niemelainen, will mean the cupboard will be effectively bare in the next two seasons.

That’s a secondary issue for a team that is all-in on winning over the next three seasons.

The other reason Edmonton can afford to deal the pick is the scouting staff. Since 2015, the staff has uncovered multiple useful NHL players outside the first round of the draft. Current Oilers like Skinner, Niemelainen and Ryan McLeod, along with former Oilers picks Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and John Marino should give the organization faith that gems can be uncovered with the current scouting staff.

The bottom line is Edmonton will need impact players from the draft, but those days will come after the McDavid-Draisaitl era. It’s go time in Edmonton.

The target

The names mentioned by Nugent-Bowman are all legit and worth consideration.

A shutdown defenceman like Radko Gudas is also worth acquiring. In fact, a first-round selection sent for Gudas could have added appeal if the organization believes Broberg can fill the need on the third-pairing LH side. Edmonton will need value contracts, Broberg will be one for the next two seasons.

Here’s a quick list of defenders who are playing well for teams who could miss the playoffs.

Player SA-60 GA-60

29.2

1.82

29.4

2.01

30.6

2.23

32.7

2.96

36.7

3.2

31.2

4.39

There are some quality options here and some might come at a more reasonable cost than others.

If Holland can acquire Ekholm, Gudas or Chychrun for a first-round pick plus, it should be considered an ideal option. The other names on this list may come at a cost that includes the 2023 first-round pick, but would represent risk.

Holland should go to market with the idea that the first-round pick in 2023 is his major trading chip, and aim high in acquiring help. The pick is extremely unlikely to help while Holland is Edmonton’s general manager.

(Photo of Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon and Oilers GM Ken Holland: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)