Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins having effective playoffs before big goals

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is having a good playoff run but very few were noticing before his two goals (one very early, one very late) against the Calgary Flames in Game 4 on Tuesday night. The Edmonton Oilers are now ahead 3-1 in the series.

It’s hard to get attention for solid two-way play when the high-flying No. 1 line (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane) is scoring at will; all three men are safely ensconced inside the league’s top five postseason scorers.

What’s more, if you take McDavid’s five-on-five performance (8-4 goals) during the playoffs and add in the totals when the captain and Draisaitl are together (14-4 goals), most of Edmonton’s success (22-8) comes when the depth lines are on the bench.

Using Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers are 9-15 goals in the playoffs when McDavid is at rest. The natural conclusion one might draw is that McDavid and Draisaitl are flourishing while the team’s other centres are getting buried. It’s an understandable conclusion based on the team’s past performance at five-on-five.

It’s wrong. And here’s why.

McDavid on/off

The perception of the Oilers being a team whose results are divided by McDavid’s contributions goes back to his rookie season. Separating “McDavid on, McDavid off” at five-on-five made it simple to identify the biggest problem on the team from 2015-16 through 2021-22:

Year Goals/97 Goals w/o 97

2015-16

36-35 (51%)

98-135 (42%)

2016-17

77-47 (62%)

89-93 (49%)

2017-18

81-61 (57%)

82-115 (42%)

2018-19

77-75 (51%)

69-103 (40%)

2019-20

62-58 (52%)

79-99 (44%)

2020-21

64-48 (57%)

51-68 (43%)

2021-22

73-50 (59%)

108-123 (47%)

This season, Edmonton’s 47 percent goal share five-on-five was the second best total over the last seven years. That’s incredible.

If we look at the games coached only by Jay Woodcroft and use the team’s regular centres as a proxy for each line, the final 38 games show the Oilers running over 50 percent (54-50, 52 percent) with 97 at rest. When McDavid played in the final 38 games, Edmonton’s five-on-five goal share was 63 percent (39-23) and represent the best outscoring run of his career.

Here are the totals (via Natural Stat Trick) for Edmonton’s centres during the Woodcroft regular season games.

The Oilers scored 93 and allowed 73 during this period (38 games) leading up to the end of the regular season. Edmonton is above 50 percent with McDavid off the ice, and on a championship level when the captain is being deployed.

Importantly, Draisaitl’s line (he was the No. 2 centre during this period) outscored handsomely and the Nugent-Hopkins trio (No. 3 line, often including Derek Ryan) played the rest of the league at even par. That’s a big improvement over the team’s record going back a decade.

Injuries to Draisaitl

Late in the regular season (early April), Draisaitl suffered what appeared to be a knee or leg injury when trying to hit Anaheim Ducks forward Trevor Zegras. The big Oilers centre missed Zegras and ran into the boards instead, missing the game against the San Jose Sharks two nights later.

His performance dropped after returning (3-7 goals five-on-five in the 10 games that ended the season), scoring just 1-2-3 at five-on-five. Draisaitl did flourish on the power play, scoring four goals and five points.

When the playoffs began, Draisaitl was in the middle on the second line with wingers Zach Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto. He looked tired during Game 4 of the first round, and the line began to shuffle. Through the middle of the series against the Kings, his linemates included Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele (Hyman was pretty much a constant).

Late in the series, Draisaitl was grabbed from behind by defenceman Mikey Anderson (hurting his ankle) during Game 6, which impacted his skating and ability to play in the middle.

Nugent-Hopkins was thrust into a more prominent role. Again using centres as proxy, here are the five-on-five goal differentials for Edmonton’s lines against Los Angeles.

Nugent-Hopkins and his line (Josh Archibald and Ryan) were matched up against the Kings’ No. 3 line to start the series (Blake Lizotte with Carl Grundstrom and Dustin Brown), and by the third game, a younger group led by Arthur Kaliyev and Rasmus Kupari (with Gabe Vilardi) was the opposition. The Nuge line went 1-0 goals in the third game against the young Kings trio.

Game 4 saw Derick Brassard join the unit (Nuge, Archibald) and it was a disaster. Although no goals were surrendered, the line was chasing (7-0 shots for the Kings) and lasted just over three minutes. RNH moved up to a line with Draisaitl and Hyman, and there were no goals despite solid numbers.

In Game 6, the Nuge-Archibald-Ryan line played the opponents even in shots (4-4) in nine minutes, giving up several high danger chances and no goals. In the final game of the series, the line was once again defending more than pushing but was not scored upon.

Coming out of the Los Angeles series, the trio had far more defensive-zone than offensive-zone faceoffs (24-11) and had been outshot 17-10 but scored the only five-on-five goal when the line was on the ice.

Nugent-Hopkins played a difficult role with no offensive difference-makers on his line and came out of the series over 50 percent in goal share at five-on-five.

The Flames

Nugent-Hopkins is the No. 2 centre so far in the Flames series; the McDavid-Draisaitl combination is tearing up Flames defences along with Kane. It’s a difficult role, as the most common forwards against RNH in the Calgary series (Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman) are tougher opponents than the Kings were throwing out against him. Here are the numbers versus the Flames through four games:

Edmonton is relying heavily on Nugent-Hopkins in this series, his most common linemates are Hyman and Jesse Puljujarvi. The trio has performed well (19-15 shots, 2-1 goals in 31 minutes) and is building its level of play with each game.

For RNH, the increase in quality on the wings opens up more opportunities, reflected in his two-goal effort against Calgary.

Nuge’s numbers 

Through the first 11 games of the playoffs, the Oilers have a five-on-five goal share of 58 percent (7-5) when Nuge is on the ice. He has been able to deliver those results while playing with linemates like Archibald (2-2 goals in 61 minutes) and Ryan (2-3 goals in 50 minutes).

He seldom plays with the most dynamic forwards, but in 58 minutes with Hyman, the Oilers are scoring 5.19 goals per 60 at five-on-five. That’s fantastic No. 2 line production.

Nugent-Hopkins’ degree of difficulty increased late in the series against the Kings after Draisaitl was injured in Game 6. At the time, Woodcroft refused to comment on the play but expressed the belief that Draisaitl would be fine.

Since then, Draisaitl has flourished, but mostly on the wing with McDavid at centre. That’s when the Nuge story this postseason became a focal point, with a major chapter occurring Tuesday at Rogers Place.

Utility

In several parts of the regular season and into the playoffs, Nugent-Hopkins has played a variety of roles effectively during five-on-five time. He is also central to the penalty kill and has had power-play success.

The Nuge is known as a 200-foot player who can help make others better, while also not reaching the great offensive heights of famous Oilers teammates over the last decade. From Taylor Hall to Jordan Eberle, from McDavid to Draisaitl and now Kane plus Hyman, it’s easy to look past No. 93 with all the star power available on the roster.

Tuesday night’s early goal shone a well-deserved light on a man who has worked hard since the fall of 2011 to bring a Stanley Cup to Edmonton. The late goal will be remembered for a long time if the Oilers get past the Flames in the days to come.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)