Lowetide: Oilers’ Klim Kostin’s sudden impact, injury and immediate future

Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland doesn’t make a lot of trades, and most of the ones he does make are predictable. They occur at the draft or the deadline, and most of them involve picks for players or players for picks.

His most recent deal looks like a winner. Edmonton sent prospect defenceman Dmitri Samorukov to the St. Louis Blues for winger Klim Kostin, who was having a hard time staying in the lineup.

The trade was somewhat similar to the Ethan Bear to the Carolina Hurricanes for Warren Foegele exchange in July 2021, but the Kostin deal was slightly different. Whereas Bear and Foegele were established NHL players, Kostin and Samorukov were working toward that goal.

Kostin made it. Then got hurt on the weekend.

The current story

Kostin looked like a man who had won a top-nine forward job on an NHL team on New Year’s Eve against the Winnipeg Jets — until a ghastly looking injury as time ran out in the game. Kostin had just ripped a shot at net that had full thrust on it, but it was blocked and never saw the light of day.

In a battle along the wall as time elapsed, Kostin appeared to turn his ankle in an unusual and terrifying way.

Oilers fans, newly enamoured with the big winger on and off the ice, instantly recognized the potential implications of the play.

Kostin was on a brilliant streak; in fact, his entire Oilers NHL career has been impressive. Experts suggest 200 minutes is the line in the sand when things start to become trustworthy.

In the case of Kostin, things were looking up as he passed 200 minutes at five-on-five with the team.

The player

Kostin has always delivered offence at five-on-five, an area the current Oilers team needs. Here are his career totals over parts of four seasons.

Year Minutes Goals-60 Pts-60

2019-20

34

1.76

1.76

2020-21

27

0

2.17

2021-22

357

0.67

1.51

2022-23

218

1.37

2.2

Total

637

0.94

1.79

All numbers five-on-five

All of those seasons show a young player with an idea about how to have an impact offensively. This season, now past 200 minutes, shows he can score from the bottom six and may earn time on skill lines if available.

Kostin’s scoring rate over his career (640 minutes) is loosely similar to Jesse Puljujarvi in 2020-21 (.89 goals per 60, 1.53 points per 60) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2018-19 (.77 goals per 60, 1.75 points per 60).

Those are unfair comparisons; both Puljujarvi and Nuge have more range and utility. But it’s also true Kostin played most of his career playing with players less talented than the quality available for wingers on the current Oilers roster.

As a purely offensive player, Kostin appears to be in the range, or a little ahead of, Edmonton’s other young wingers (Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Foegele).

Kostin’s shot is a major calling card, both in volume and shooting success. Here are the totals for his career compared to Edmonton’s other young forwards.

Player Shots-60 Goals-60 Shooting Pct

7.46

0.57

7.7

7.42

1.37

18.5

6.52

0.39

6

4.74

0.41

8.7

4.44

0.33

7.4

4.36

0.22

5

All numbers five-on-five

Kostin and Foegele are the most prolific shooters among the young forwards, and Kostin’s shooting percentage gives him the big edge in goals per 60. Kostin had a strong shooting percentage (13.9 percent) during his time with the Blues, so this year’s early success isn’t an outlier.

No one should expect Kostin to score at the current rate for the Oilers, but regression could let plenty of air out of the tires and the young winger still scores 12-15 goals in a full season.

The weakness

Kostin’s draft day bios mentioned shoulder surgery impacting his draft season, and listed inconsistency as the major red flag. Most of his pre-draft resume was positive: Big winger, good speed and power and his shot was mentioned in every scouting report as a strength.

NHL coaches are obsessed with what happens when players don’t have the puck, and in this area, Kostin will need some work.

This season, Puck IQ tells us he sees mid-level and soft parade opponents about 75 percent of the time, and his DFF percentage (that’s smart Corsi, giving higher value to shots closer to the goal and to legit high-danger chances) is above average against only the easiest opposition.

If Kostin is to have a long and successful career in Edmonton, it’s this area of the game that will need to improve. Puljujarvi’s player card shows strong results against mid-level and the soft parade, and an overall success rate (DFF percentage) of 53.5 percent.

If Kostin gets in that range, he’ll play a long time.

The backstory

Every NHL team and every NHL fan base likes to dream about an impact forward falling into the laps of the local team.

It’s very rare.

In Oilers history, the best players who have arrived in quiet deals or via low-key signings include Craig MacTavish (a brilliant checking centre who played nine seasons in Edmonton, winning the Stanley Cup three times); Patrick Maroon, who was a deadline dump by the Anaheim Ducks who landed the job meant for Milan Lucic alongside Connor McDavid; Matti Hagman, brought back from Europe to help Jari Kurri to adapt to North American life; Daniel Cleary, who couldn’t find his NHL game with a struggling organization (the Chicago Blackhawks of 1998-99); Rem Murray, who was unsigned by his drafting team (Los Angeles Kings) but found a home in the organization.

Over 40-plus seasons, that’s not many.

Most players who arrive via Kostin are (in the words of MacTavish when he was Oilers coach) in search of a second opinion. There are sometimes portions of seasons where are player comes in and makes a difference, but the most likely outcome for these players is a journeyman’s career.

Valentin Zykov would be a recent example of a player who spent time in Edmonton and then moved along.

The future

Kostin’s progress seems different. Is it the goal-scoring spree? His obvious comfort level with the city and team? Is this wishful thinking by Oilers nation?

Possibly. Kostin was a highly ranked draft prospect in 2017, suffered a significant injury and then lost ground as wingers like Jordan Kyrou emerged from the Blues system.

The injury on Saturday night looked severe. Early indications are it may not be as bad as it looked initially.

Kostin is already something of a legend among Oilers fans. If he cheats injury and is in the lineup at any point in the next couple of weeks the lore around this player will continue to grow.

Has Kostin found a home in Edmonton? If he keeps scoring goals and (it appears he has) cheats long-term injury, the answer might be yes.

(Photo: Lawrence Scott / Getty Images)