Lowetide: Is Oilers defenceman Brett Kulak the odd man out this summer?

Edmonton Oilers defenceman Brett Kulak has performed well since arriving in the Alberta capital in a 2022 deadline deal with the Montreal Canadiens.

Through 86 regular season games with the club, his five-on-five goal share is 63-57 (52.5 percent). That’s quality.

His foot speed is a welcome change for Oilers fans used to watching some slow boots on the back line over the years. He is not an offensive defenceman, but owns a 0.91 points per 60 at five-on-five and has three assists on the penalty kill.

Kulak is a successful NHL defenceman who brings some offence and good coverage to every game. His biggest strength, speed, stands out for the Oilers and makes him useful up and down the depth chart.

The problems for Kulak involve cap issues and roster construction for 2023-24. Is he going to be the odd man out this summer?

Kulak’s best role

There is evidence Kulak is best served as a third-pairing option. When he was acquired by Edmonton, new coach Jay Woodcroft and his defence coach Dave Manson deployed Kulak in an unusual fashion. Effectively, the coaching staff ran Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci as a super top pair, and then deployed two third pairs. The easiest way to show the deployment is via Puck IQ. Here we see what the coaching staff was doing versus elite competition in 2021-22 (numbers after the deadline).

PairingMins v elitesDFF Pct

Nurse and Ceci

221

55.7

Keith and Bouchard

88

45.1

Kulak and Barrie

20

33.1

All numbers five-on-five

Kulak played well with Tyson Barrie, but the pairing didn’t play much against the other team’s best. The de facto second pairing was veteran Duncan Keith with the inexperienced Evan Bouchard based on pairing usage, and even then both bottom pairings combined didn’t make much of a dent in the overall ice time versus elites.

As a short-term fix, the elevation of the top pairing worked. Kulak enjoyed a 57 percent goal share at five-on-five including all competition. The coaching staff slotted him properly based on his (small sample) performance versus elites and overall.

The 2022-23 season was much the same before the deadline. Kulak-Barrie was the second pairing but were sheltered as much as possible.

PairingMins v elitesDFF Pct

Nurse and Ceci

387

48.5

Kulak and Barrie

136

46.1

Broberg and Bouchard

41

42.6

All numbers five-on-five

Since the deadline, Kulak has been playing with Vincent Desharnais. The two men face elites seldom (just 22 minutes together all year).

Kulak is well equipped for this kind of usage based on his Puck IQ player card.

CompetitionMinutesDFF PctGoal Pct

Elite

268

46.5

42.9

Middle

427

51.2

50

Soft

349

56.9

57.6

All numbers five-on-five

Limited minutes versus elites (where he struggles in possession) and a pile of playing time versus mid-level and the soft parade, where his results are rock solid.

Kulak’s cap hit is $2.75 million per year and he’s signed through the 2025-26 season. There is no urgency to deal him beyond the harsh cap situation.

It may be enough.

Philip Broberg

The Oilers have an inexpensive ($863,000 next year with a $850,000 maximum performance bonus) replacement in Philip Broberg. He is big, strong, mobile and delivering a solid rookie season with the Oilers.

Strictly a third-pairing option this season, his numbers compare well overall to Kulak.

PlayerTOI-GameShot PctGoal PctX-Goal Pct

11:48

56.5

54.2

58.7

15:23

48.3

51.1

51.5

All numbers five-on-five

Broberg is playing less at five-on-five per game than Kulak, all other numbers favour the younger and less expensive player.

Edmonton will want a full-time role for Broberg, who has played in 38 games this season and 61 over his young NHL career. His performance this season was impressive, as he stepped in on the third pair and helped in puck movement and retrieval.

Organizations in Edmonton’s cap situation must find ways to save money, and Broberg is a natural replacement for Kulak.

Making the situation even more untenable for Kulak was the deadline addition of Mattias Ekholm. The veteran has been a revelation since coming over at the deadline from the Nashville Predators.

Edmonton’s left side defensively in 2023-24 could easily be populated by Nurse, Ekholm, Broberg and AHL grad Markus Niemelainen. By going with two inexpensive options at the bottom of the depth chart, general manager Ken Holland can bring in the entire defence next season (Ceci, Bouchard and Desharnais on the right side) for under $27 million if the Bouchard contract is a bridge.

Considering there’s over $42 million invested for next season on just seven forwards, that defensive cap total will need to be trimmed.

Other options

If the organization decides to keep Kulak, there are moves that can be made. Broberg and Ekholm have played on their off-side (lefty shooters playing right-side defence) and it’s an option.

The team could move Broberg over and trade Ceci, who has struggled this season. It’s less than ideal, and would mean the right side of Edmonton’s defence (Bouchard, Broberg, Desharnais) lacks experience.

Ekholm could move over, and make him part of a super pairing with Nurse. Both options seem less than ideal.

The organization could decide to send out a forward instead of Kulak, and there are attractive options that do save dollars.

PositionIncumbentReplacementCap Saving

No. 3 LD

Kulak

Broberg

$1.89 million

No. 2 RW

Kailer Yamamoto

Xavier Bourgault

$2.175 million

No. 3 LW

Warren Foegele

Dylan Holloway

$1.825 million

All three of these moves are possible, but Broberg has done more than Dylan Holloway to establish himself as an NHL player this season. Xavier Bourgault has yet to see the NHL, and with Holland’s famous patience replacing Yamamoto is likely one year away (possibly the 2024 deadline).

The play

It’s possible circumstances (winning the Stanley Cup, a long-term injury to a left-handed defenceman during the postseason) change plans.

The play for the Oilers is to deal Kulak with no dollars returning, and to move Broberg into his spot on the roster.

Kulak has enough value for teams to trade for him, and the additional cap room (almost $2 million) will have high value to Edmonton’s management in the summer.

If Edmonton can sign Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin (all RFAs) to bridge deals that come in under $6 million, and deal Kulak for no returning cap dollars, the roster will be idling at 17 with about $4 million in cap room available.

Edmonton could shoehorn four or five inexpensive contracts (minor leaguers, free agents signed for the minimum) to get the roster to 22 or 23 and remain just under the salary cap.

There could be more than one deal like Kulak for futures. In a truly wild summer, fans might see Yamamoto and Foegele exit like Puljujarvi did at the deadline.

It would effectively end the mid-level contract on Edmonton’s roster.

Kulak’s affordable contract, his speed and skill, and Broberg’s presence and modest cap hit are extremely likely to result in a new address for the veteran defenceman.

He’s probably the first player dealt this summer, possibly as early as the draft.

(Photo: Kirby Lee / USA Today)