Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers make room for Raphael Lavoie?

Edmonton Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie is putting pressure on the team’s management.

The young winger, a first-shot scorer of high pedigree, has scored four times in the first five Bakersfield Condors games this AHL season.

Added to his ferocious performance to end last year (13 goals in his final 24 games), the young winger is on a pace of 17 tallies over 29 games that would deliver 42 goals over a full 72-game schedule.

True prospects don’t score 42 goals in an AHL season, because a recall from the parent team — or a trade — comes in-season to settle things and elevate the prospect to the world’s highest league.

Why is Lavoie still in Bakersfield? How will the Oilers get him on the roster? Here are the answers.

It isn’t the cap

There are many online comments sections suggesting the Oilers cannot recall Lavoie due to cap purposes. It would be a simple process, made possible by sending down Adam Erne and recalling Lavoie. Edmonton would have $280,000 in cap room remaining.

Edmonton’s experience level goes way down, as Erne is the veteran of 360 NHL games and Lavoie hasn’t been in one regular-season game. However, Lavoie is a first-shot scorer on a team that is having a tough time putting the puck in the net early this season.

The Erne move is the easiest available and makes the most sense. There are other options.

How to get it done: A recall

There are two players exempt from waivers on the current roster. Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg were top picks a few years ago and the perception is both will increase their roles as this season wears along.

Holloway has zero points in seven games and his five-on-five goal share is 0-3 despite a 55 percent expected goal share. The concern over Holloway as an NHL forward is offence, and through 530 five-on-five minutes, he is at 1.02 points per 60. That’s fourth-line production.

Erne is the better demotion choice, but sending Holloway down in order to give him some confidence with the puck could be a wise choice.

Broberg is not a reasonable demotion choice, as the Oilers would recall a defenceman to replace him.

Among veterans who could be sent down, there are several options (including Erne) that make sense based on performance so far this season.

PlayerPts-60Goal ShareX-Goal Share

0

1-3

64

0

0-1

47

0

0-2

48

All numbers five-on-five

It’s still early in the season, but Mattias Janmark is past 70 minutes in the metric without posting even one point. The veteran has been playing up on a skill line, too. He has played 20 minutes with Leon Draisaitl this season and had chances to score (five high-danger chances).

Oilers coaches and management may feel these three men need to be on the roster for their penalty-killing ability, but Natural Stat Trick has both Derek Ryan and Janmark allowing over 10 goals-against per 60 short-handed.

Janmark ranks No. 96 (among 138) leaguewide in GA per 60 short-handed (10 minutes or more) and Ryan is No. 108 of 138.

If either man is claimed on waivers, the team will survive. It’s also true that Ryan’s contract (there is a second year on the deal) would make a waiver claim unlikely.

How to get it done: A trade

One of the things this season’s poor start points out is the Oilers are running with too few players. It has already bit the team (Connor McDavid’s injury meant the club ran three players short) and promises to do it again during the regular season.

It’s a tough call for general manager Ken Holland. The players he could trade (Brett Kulak, Cody Ceci, Warren Foegele) to get relief are either helping now or are likely contributors in the playoffs next spring.

Another snag for a possible trade: Holland’s main trade chip (2024 first-round selection) can’t be moved now. If the team continues to struggle, that selection could be much higher than anticipated. Holland’s successor (he is working on the final year of his deal) will already have the Connor Brown bonus to deal with, trading away a high pick this early in the season should be a no-fly zone move for ownership.

Trades will come later in the year. Holland must hope the team is still a buyer.

First-shot scorer

The Oilers have a problem. The shots per 60 (30.7, No. 16 of 32 NHL teams) is middle of the pack so far this season, but the shooting percentage (7.83) ranks No. 26.

Regression will occur and the team’s number will climb in both areas.

Lavoie is a volume shooter with a terrific release and is scoring well at this time. Here are his numbers compared to Holloway (in individual AHL seasons) over the last several years.

PlayerYearShots-GameShooting Pct

2023-24

5.4

14.8

2022-23

3

13.6

2022-23

2.83

20.6

2021-22

2.64

8.8

2021-22

2.5

9.6

Holloway has the edge in speed, exits and entries and has been competitive in goal share five-on-five (17-17 a year ago) as an NHL player.

He isn’t scoring goals, though.

Lavoie has superior skills as a volume shooter. Although they have the same scoring rate in the AHL (Lavoie and Holloway both at 0.33 per game), Lavoie is at 0.44 since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.

Send down Erne

It shouldn’t be a matter of Holloway versus Lavoie and the organization will have to shuffle the roster eventually. Getting production from the depth lines over the next 70-plus games is vital. The team through eight games hasn’t shown much pop from the third and fourth lines.

There are other options in Bakersfield, but none with the resume Lavoie boasts as a pure goal scorer.

The obvious demotion is Erne, with Janmark and Ryan also possible.

The transaction that allows Edmonton to recall Lavoie is not a difficult one.

That it hasn’t happened is curious.

Oilers management should recall Lavoie. Today. He’s NHL-ready and a fit for team need.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)