Lowetide: Are the Oilers getting enough out of their AHL prospect pipeline?
Oilers #Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers are in a window to win the Stanley Cup.
The arsenal for any contender includes a productive system that both develops prospects for the parent team and supplies enough excess talent to trade for specific needs.
How are the Oilers doing?
Not all teams have the same draft opportunities in a given season. If the general manager cuts the heart out of the draft, as happened in Edmonton in 2015, then it means the scouts and minor league coaches are at a disadvantage in developing talent.
There’s the matter of draft order. Edmonton has walked to the podium early when compared to most teams over the last dozen years.
In using the five seasons of AHL talent beginning in 2015-16, and using the other two western Canadian teams to compare, are the Oilers getting enough out of the Bakersfield Condors pipeline?
Since 2015
Using a five-year window (2015-16 through 2019-20), the Oilers signed or drafted 11 prospects who played in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors and went on to play 35-plus NHL games.
Player AHL rookie yr AHL games NHL games
2015-16
59
102
2016-17
53
307
2016-17
187
59
2017-18
89
225
2017-18
125
182
2018-19
50
217
2018-19
138
60
2018-19
186
38
2019-20
113
42
2019-20
54
151
2019-20
91
117
The highlighted group of five men were deployed as feature players (starting goalie, top-four defence, top two lines, No. 3 centre) for a prolonged period in Edmonton or another NHL city.
The Oilers averaged one feature player and another secondary talent each season.
It’s a solid number, and several of the players developed are currently building their NHL careers. The story of these men will roll out over the rest of the decade and in some cases beyond.
One downbeat for Edmonton’s system: Despite having exceptional young talent like Evan Bouchard, Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, Edmonton lacks a home-run draft and development player from this era.
How does that compare to the Pacific Division’s other Canadian teams?
The Oilers drafted in the top 10 three times (Puljujarvi, Bouchard and Connor McDavid, although the captain never played in the minors) during this five-year period.
The Calgary Flames, who drafted in the top 10 just once in the time span, have done well in draft and development.
It is reflected in nine names that qualify based on the criteria above.
Player AHL rookie year AHL games NHL games
2015-16
190
168
2015-16
117
296
2015-16
219
150
2016-17
120
309
2016-17
110
347
2016-17
43
173
2017-18
56
249
2018-19
55
127
2019-20
98
67
The Flames have fewer players who qualify, but the top end is strong and the four men who can be identified as feature players are among the best in the three-team look at procurement in the Pacific Divsion’s Canadian teams.
Another added advantage for the Flames: The organization kept its young talent. Rasmus Andersson, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube and Oliver Kylington are (when in the lineup) major pieces in the Calgary lineup.
Edmonton has the edge in total players, the ranking of individual players at the end of this article will favour the Flames
The Vancouver Canucks drafted in the top 10 four times in this five-year look, and the other first-round selection (Brock Boeser was No. 23 in 2015) went straight from college to the NHL.
Vancouver drafted 36 players in this window, compared to 33 by Edmonton and 29 for Calgary.
Only eight Canucks made the NHL grade, and just two reached feature player status.
Player AHL rookie year AHL games NHL games
2016-17
67
317
2016-17
107
151
2017-18
157
176
2017-18
186
82
2018-19
59
61
2018-19
84
41
2018-19
49
218
2018-19
100
75
Vancouver got less out of its AHL pipeline, but the first-round picks that hit in this run (Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes) represent peak Canucks in drafting this century.
The Canucks are the least successful team among the three in finding players from the farm who can fill feature roles on an NHL team, but did land an exceptional talent in Thatcher Demko.
The top 10 players
Ranking any group of players this early in their careers is rife with problems.
For example, Kylington would rank much higher based on his phenomenal 2021-22 season but he isn’t playing this year. Puljujarvi had two strong years in a row, but his performance has fallen off so far this year.
Taking as much bias as possible out of the equation, here is a ranking of the Pacific Division players from Canadian clubs who passed through the AHL on the way to the NHL.
Player Per 82 games
5-29-34, feature role since 2020-21
.909 SO, 2.94 GAA
10-26-36, No.3 in mins v elites 2021-22
23-19-42, feature role since 2019-20
17-23-40, 3 seasons on top two lines
7-16-23, top-four role 2021-22
13-16-29, feature role in 2020-21, 2021-22
16-17-33, prominent role in two seasons
6-15-21, top pair 2019-20, 2020-21
.912 SP, 2.88 GAA
Edmonton has five of the top 10, Calgary four of the top eight and the Canucks have Demko.
The best in the Canadian Pacific
Ideally a run across all 32 teams would give us a pristine answer. There are issues, like rebuilding teams and clubs who keep some of their top talent in Europe for several seasons.
All of that understood, the Flames are the class of the group by a slim margin over the Oilers. The Canucks have work to do.
Bottom line
Edmonton is getting enough from the system but would do well to keep that talent and allow it to mature.
Bouchard has enormous potential and could top this list a year or two from today. Stuart Skinner’s impressive entry into the NHL may see him blossom and win a starting position in the not-so-distant future.
Edmonton also has names like Ryan McLeod who have not yet established themselves in a feature role. Despite being outside the top 10 ranking in this look, chances are he will spend a prolonged period in a feature role over the next couple of seasons.
One final note: A key improvement by the Oilers organization is getting value from picks outside the first round. Names like Skinner, McLeod and Ethan Bear give the Oilers a massive advantage not seen a dozen years ago when the scouting staff was drafting Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton.
Part of that is luck, but part of it is playing these kids when they’re 20. That’s a key change in Edmonton’s development system and it is paying dividends.
(Photo of Stuart Skinner: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)