Liverpool vs. Leicester City odds, prediction, pick: Expect goals in Premier League showdown
Leicester #Leicester
Leicester City desperately needs a result against Liverpool on Monday afternoon.
The Foxes are two points behind Everton in the battle for Premier League survival and have just three matches – including Monday’s tilt with the Reds in Leicester – left in the season.
A loss to Liverpool on Monday and Leicester could face a win-or-be-relegated match in Newcastle in a week.
Liverpool is a -180 favorite at the King Power Stadium on Monday evening.
Liverpool vs. Leicester City odds
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Liverpool: -165
Leicester City: +400
90-minute draw: +340
Liverpool vs. Leicester City prediction
In seasons past, this would be a brutal challenge for Leicester City.
But this version of Liverpool is nowhere near the level of the teams we’ve seen put on the red shirt over the last half-decade.
The Reds can still score in bunches – they rank third in goals scored, fourth in non-penalty expected goals, third in big scoring chances created and third in shots per 90 minutes – but they’ve struggled mightily defensively all season.
Liverpool’s goals against record isn’t bad – the Reds rank sixth in the Premier League with 42 goals conceded – but their underlying data suggests they’re fortunate things aren’t worse.
Part of the disparity between Liverpool’s 42 goals allowed and 52.5 expected goals conceded comes down to good goalkeeping from Alisson, but it also suggests that this defense has some serious flaws.
The Reds don’t give up many shots – they rank fourth in shots conceded per 90 minutes – but the ones they do allow are usually of high quality.
Liverpool ranks 12th in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals conceded and 16th in big scoring chances allowed.
A lot of these high-quality opportunities that Liverpool gives up come in transition; the Reds have struggled at putting out fires when they turn the ball over all season, and that spells trouble against a Leicester team that wants to counterattack you to death.
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The good news for Liverpool is that, even if they do get caught a couple of times on Monday, they should be able to score enough to make up for it.
Leicester’s defense ranks 17th in non-penalty expected goals allowed, 18th in shots against per 90 minutes and 15th in big scoring chances conceded.
Both of these attacks should have plenty of joy on Monday.
Liverpool vs. Leicester City pick
Over 3.5 goals (+118, FanDuel)