Liberals claim underdog status in Aston byelection as party faces calls for a woman to replace Alan Tudge

Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley have claimed the Liberals will start as the “underdog” in the Aston byelection, as the opposition seeks a candidate – preferably a woman – to retain Alan Tudge’s seat.

The shadow minister for education announced his retirement on Thursday, just nine months after he retained the eastern Melbourne seat despite a 7.3% swing to Labor at the 2022 election.

The byelection will be a crucial early test for the Liberals – after the party’s election review called on it to boost women’s participation – and the leader, Peter Dutton, who claimed in January that the opposition was at a “low watermark” in Victoria.

Within the Victorian division there is a strong view that the Aston candidate should be a woman. The barrister Roshena Campbell, former Dunkley candidate and Survivor contestant Sharn Coombes, former Bentleigh candidate Debbie Taylor-Haynes and former state MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake are considered as potential candidates in a largely open field.

Irene Ling, the president of the eastern multicultural branch of the Liberal party, and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava, who is also a columnist for Guardian Australia, have also been floated as potential candidates though they have struggled to receive support of branch members in recent preselections. Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Tudge, is also a possible contender.

No date has yet been set for the byelection. Timing may determine whether the candidate is selected through an open preselection or the state administrative committee will handpick a candidate due to a short lead-in time.

Tudge won Aston with a 2.8% two-party preferred margin, in a normally safe Liberal part of Melbourne that saw swings to Labor at both the most recent state and federal elections.

A senior Victorian Liberal source said the swing against the party at the federal election could be attributed to Tudge and the then prime minister Scott Morrison’s unpopularity but that it was “unlikely to be any easier” with Dutton as leader.

“He’s a great guy but it’s very clear Dutton is not liked in Victoria,” the source said.

The federal opposition leader was noticeably absent from the state election, during which the Victorian Trades Hall Council ran anti-Dutton advertisements in the seats in Melbourne’s east that overlap with Aston.

On Friday, Dutton told Channel Nine’s Today program “of course” there was “no question” that he would go to Victoria to campaign to retain the seat.

Despite the fact no government has won a seat off the opposition at a byelection in more than 100 years, Dutton said Aston would be “a tough seat for us to hold”.

“Byelections are always difficult and there are different issues, lots of local issues – the government’s ripped money out of road projects in Aston, they have, I think abandoned the area for a long period of time, and, as I say, Alan is a popular local member and that always brings a vote with it, which won’t be present in the byelection,” he said.

“But we’ll preselect a great candidate, and that process has already started. You’ll be seeing lots of us down in Aston and, you know, we regularly get to Melbourne.”

In January, Dutton told 3AW radio that Victoria was “a huge opportunity” for the Liberals to pick up seats, arguing its vote was at “a low watermark”.

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On Friday, Ley, the deputy Liberal leader, told ABC radio that “byelections are always incredibly tricky prospects, there is no doubt about that”.

“[Tudge’s] substantial personal vote will be lost, we also note the Victorian Labor government was resoundingly elected just months ago.

“So the Liberal party will start this election race as the clear underdog, we know that.”

Tony Barry, the former deputy leader of the Victorian Liberal party, told ABC radio that the party would have no choice but to preselect a woman in Aston.

Ley told reporters in Canberra that she “always wanted to see more women in parliament”.

“The decisions about the preselected candidates are decisions for the Victorian division and I know that they will make those decisions wisely, and that they will select an outstanding candidate,” she said.

Despite suggestions from some party members that the byelection could provide an opportunity for the former treasurer Josh Frydenberg to re-enter parliament after losing his seat of Kooyong, the former deputy leader has told members he will not run.

No independent stood for Aston at the 2022 election, but the Knox councillor Nicole Seymour garnered 12% of the vote in the overlapping state seat of Rowville.

A source involved in the teal movement said any campaign was “doomed to fail” without strong community participation, which is currently lacking in the area.