Laura Tingle on the political fallout from the latest controversies

SCOTT MORRISON, PRIME MINISTER: How good is Queensland?

SCOTT MORRISON: It doesn’t get more fair dinkum than this.

SCOTT MORRISON: This is me doing what I do.

SCOTT MORRISON: How good…

SCOTT MORRISON: I believe in a fair go for those who have a go.

LAURA TINGLE, CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: There is proactive Scott Morrison.

SCOTT MORRISON: Any idiot who thinks they can go out into a shopping centre and start sticking pins in fruit…

SCOTT MORRISON: Under the provision that we will be seeking to introduce swiftly, that type of behaviour would carry a penalty of up to 10 years’ in prison.

SCOTT MORRISON: And if she doesn’t wish to do that, Mr Speaker, she can go!

SCOTT MORRISON: While the WHO is yet to declare, we believe that the risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us.

LAURA TINGLE: And not so proactive Scott Morrison.

SCOTT MORRISON: If you had your time over again and you had the benefit of hindsight, then would have made different decisions.

SCOTT MORRISON: (Laughs) Well, I do still plan to go to football.

REPORTER: What have you heard, if not of substance?

SCOTT MORRISON: Only rumours of an ABC investigative journalist making some inquiries.

LAURA TINGLE: It is not clear whether the pro-active or less active Scott Morrison always delivers the political goods.

But after the maelstrom of last week and facing the spectre of an unresolved and apparently unresolvable allegation against the country’s first law officer, politicians and political observers have been pondering where the events of the past month have left the standing of the Morrison Government.

For close watchers, the realpolitik are the positions of the Attorney-General Christian Porter and Defence Minister Linda Reynolds seem completely untenable – whatever the strident defences of them from the Prime Minister and ministerial colleagues.

SCOTT MORRISON: I believe in the presumption of innocence and the rule of law and every Australian is entitled to that, whether they are a minister of the government or anyone else in this country.

LAURA TINGLE: The hope in the Government that the controversies engulfing both ministers will just blow over seems wildly optimistic.

But what impact has any of the controversy had out in the electorate, particularly among women voters?

Pollsters have been picking up some differing trends in the past few weeks.

PETER LEWIS, ESSENTIAL MEDIA: We were in the field in the period between the allegations against the Attorney being aired and the Attorney being named. So, obviously a fluid situation but we did pick up some smoke signals that I think would be damaging to the Government, particularly in attitudes of women voters.

Two things stood out in our poll. One was the significant dip in approval of the Government’s management of the pandemic.

The second thing was a double digit drop in perceptions of the Prime Minister’s personal attributes, only amongst female voters. So while male voters were static over 12 month period on things like whether he is a visionary leader, good in a crisis, can be trusted, female regard had deteriorated by double digits.

LAURA TINGLE: Peter Lewis is commenting on quantitative polling – that is, the polls where pollsters ask specific questions of voters, and record the percentage change but it has its limitations.

TONY MITCHELMORE, VISIBILITY: Look, the issue sometimes is that with quant research is that you ask a question and then you get an answer, and the question might not be in people’s heads and it might not be the dominant issue.

But you have asked the question and then all this analysis goes on around it. It might not really be reflective of where people’s heads are at.

LAURA TINGLE: Tony Mitchelmore, who worked on the Kevin ’07 campaign, conducts qualitative polling in focused groups of swinging voters.

TONY MITCHELMORE: Spontaneously, it wasn’t coming up that much and there is a definite cohort, particularly amongst women, who are really angry about this situation.

But you just get a sense from the majority that it is still COVID that’s the dominant thing and on that issue, they are pretty pleased with how things are going.

Basically, the first question that’s asked in any political poll, certainly the polls that the major parties get is the right track, wrong track question. Is the country on the right track or the wrong track? The right track figure has never been higher.

LAURA TINGLE: So there seem to be two contradictory trends. On the one hand, female voters are not happy with the Prime Minister, but Tony Mitchelmore’s focus groups of swinging voters suggest the stratospheric levels of positive voter perceptions of where the country is headed don’t indicate any immediate need for change.

However, one former prime minister clearly believes the sexual assault allegations are having an impact.

KEVIN RUDD, FORMER PRIME MINISTER: Whatever Mr Morrison and his media minders may wish, it is clear the women of Australia rightfully will not stand idly by while men seek to push this under the carpet and the Government encourages us simply to “move on”.

TONY MITCHELMORE: I still get the sense that it could pass, you know. To what extent is this going to have long-term damage on how they perceive the Prime Minister?

LAURA TINGLE: Whatever the polls show, there is a day-to-day effect on the management of the Government and politics from what has occurred.

The Government will be down two ministers when Federal Parliament resumes next week with both Christian Porter and Linda Reynolds’ original two weeks of leave extended – meaning neither will face questions in Parliament or estimates committee hearings.

REPORTER: Should Australians be concerned that two of the eight members of the National Security Committee are currently on leave?

SCOTT MORRISON: No. They shouldn’t because I have highly competent ministers that are taking over their duties in the meantime. I have a very accomplished legal professional in Michaelia Cash.

LAURA TINGLE: Next week women’s marches are planned around the country, including at Parliament House, so the issue is not going away, whatever the polls say.

And there is still a police investigation into Brittany Higgins’ allegations of rape by a fellow staffer, a police investigation into the death of a woman at the centre of allegations against Christian Porter, and the review of Parliament House culture by Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins to be completed.

The Prime Minister may hope all these issues stay inside the Canberra bubble, but it feels like that bubble has well and truly burst.