Lakers-Heat 2020 NBA Finals Game 3 prop bets: LeBron James keeps doing his thing, Duncan Robinson does not

The actual outcome of Game 3 of the NBA Finals, assuming Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic sit out (and both are listed as doubtful at the moment), isn’t really in question. The Lakers should be able to win relatively comfortably. But the prop bets? Those are a mystery, because with their backs against the wall, there is no telling what sort of wild strategies Heat coach Erik Spoelstra could cook up. 

These bets are volatile. Depending on what the Heat emphasize in Game 3, any of them could be risky. But if we assume that the game itself looks somewhat similar to Game 2, these are the best prop bets on the board for Sunday’s third Finals game. 

All lines via William Hill Sportsbook

There’s some guesswork involved here, but if you believe that LeBron James cares about winning Finals MVP, averaging a triple-double is probably his best path there given how well Anthony Davis is scoring (and is likely to continue scoring with Bam Adebayo injured). He’s averaged nine assists per game in the first two games of the Finals. That means, if this is a sweep, he needs to average 11 to get to the triple-double. That’s entirely doable. He did it 32 times during the season. With some extra motivation, he should be in line to do it again. 

Vegas is hoping that bettors will look at Robinson’s scoreless Game 1 and underwhelming Game 2 and assume that he is somehow due for a great game. In truth, he’s averaged below that 11.5 total this postseason even if you ignore the Finals, The Lakers defend off-ball shooters as well as any team in the NBA, and barring an extreme hot streak, that should keep Robinson off-balance for the rest of this series. 

Iguodala played 26 minutes in Game 2, but if Adebayo is indeed out for Game 3, that number should tick up for Game 3. Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard just couldn’t hold up defensively against the Lakers, so as dangerous as playing small is against them, it is at least a different look to throw at them. If nothing else, it helps draw the Laker bigs away from the basket. Give Iguodala something in the neighborhood of 30 minutes, and seven points seems fairly straightforward. 

Butler got to 25 points in Game 2, and while that’s high by his standards, it makes sense in context. He has to handle the ball more with Dragic out, and while that led to 13 assists on Friday, the likelier outcome is a scoring uptick. Even if Butler trades in three assists for three more shots, the odds of him not getting to 25 points on 20 shots seems pretty slim. 

Howard had only two rebounds in Game 2, but fell between 8-11 in his first three games as a starter. With Adebayo out, the Lakers owned the offensive glass on Friday. Anthony Davis was the main beneficiary, but Howard should be able to rack up plenty of easy offensive boards in this game as well. He should be able to reach six rebounds pretty comfortably.