Labour’s Lead Is Firm, Reform Gains: Five Lessons From UK By-Elections

(Bloomberg) — The UK Labour Party handed the governing Conservatives two thumping defeats in a pair of special elections on Thursday in a setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that reinforces the sense that the opposition is on course to win power at a general election due in the next year.

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Labour stormed to wins in both Wellingborough, in the midlands, and Kingswood in southwest England, in competitions where Reform UK, the party founded by Tory nemesis Nigel Farage, came third.

Here are five takeaways from the votes:

1. Labour Support Remains Strong Despite Hiccups

The week began badly for Starmer as he was forced to ditch Labour’s candidate for another special election later in February due to antisemitic remarks, before suspending a second parliamentary candidate for similar reasons. Labour has also been under pressure after watering down its signature economic project to plow money into the drive toward net zero.

None of that appeared to matter to voters on Thursday. In Wellingborough, the 28.5-point swing to Labour from the Tories was the second highest since World War II, while in Kingswood the swing was an also-healthy 16.4 points. That suggests the opposition is on track to convert its national polling lead — which has fluctuated around 20 points for months — into a general election win to end 14 years of Tory rule.

“The results tell us the opinion polls are accurately reflecting the state of public opinion,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University, London, in a phone interview. “This is a deeply unpopular government.”

2. Low Turnout Hints at Lack of Voter Enthusiasm

One note of caution for Labour was the low turnout in both by-elections. While that’s a common feature of such votes because of the lack of a national campaign to boost interest, Sunak said it suggests “there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm” for Labour.

John Curtice, a prominent psephologist and politics professor at Strathclyde University, wrote on the BBC website that “voters’ discontent with the Conservatives was seemingly not matched in equal measure by its enthusiasm for Labour,” adding that the increase in Labour’s vote share was only half the fall in Tory support, “underlining how many discontented Tories are going elsewhere.”

Still, while Starmer himself said his party couldn’t be complacent and needed to “fight as if we’re five points behind in the polls,” he won’t mind if voters behave the same way on election day.

3. Reform is Rising as a Political Force

Another major concern for Sunak was the strong performance of Reform UK, the anti-immigration party founded by Brexit campaigner Farage. Tory strategists are worried about Reform splitting the right-wing vote, and the party picked up 13% of the vote in Wellingborough, well above its previous by-election record. If its 10.4% share in Kingswood had gone to the Tories, Sunak’s party would have retained the seat.

“Tonight was the night Reform came of age,” Farage said on GB News after the results. “It became a real political party, not a theoretical political party.”

4. The Tories Look Doomed

The size of Labour’s by-election victories suggest the Tories are on course for heavy losses at a general election. Labour overturned majorities of 18,540 and 11,220 in Wellingborough and Kingswood respectively, margins that would normally mean the seats were considered safe for the Conservatives.

The scale of the defeats sparked anger among Tory MPs on Friday. One told Bloomberg the results were final proof that they were going to lose the election and now the party is in damage limitation mode. A minister said the election is lost and the Conservatives are now fighting to avoid losing the following election too and risking a decade of Labour in power.

The discontent has been clear among Tories for while, with many making plans for new careers. Even before an election date has been set, at least 55 Conservative Members of Parliament have indicated they won’t stand for office, according to the House of Commons Library.

“With every week that goes by we get at least one or two pretty high-profile sitting MPs saying they’re not standing,” said Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, a campaigning group. “We could have more of that.”

5. A May Election Seems Unlikely

While Sunak can call the election for as far away as late January, there’s been recent UK media speculation he could hold it in May, coinciding with local elections and potentially riding a wave of good feeling stemming from voter-friendly giveaways in the spring Budget on March 6.

But that’s now looking less likely after a week in which official statistics show the UK has slid into recession, it was revealed that Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt may lack the fiscal headroom for large budget giveaways, and the Tories then slipped to Thursday’s by-election defeats.

Those votes “all but rule out a May election,” said Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta. “If everything goes right for Sunak, he’d be wise to strike while the iron is hot. But a recession and these by-election defeats count as ‘things going wrong’.”

–With assistance from Emily Ashton and Alex Wickham.

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