Labor claims victory as Liberal swing falls short – as it happened

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Jodie Belyea makes victory speech: ‘I’m someone who wants to make a difference’Labor’s Jodie Belyea claims victory at a party function in Frankston. Photograph: Morgan Hancock/AAP

Jodie Belyea is now making her victory speech. She pays tribute to her opponent.

A short time ago I received a very cautious call from Nathan Conroy. I want to thank Nathan for running a heart and hard-fought campaign. I wish him and his family all the best, and look forward to working with him in the future.

She then introduces herself to the room (and anyone still watching the coverage).

I am Jodie Belyea.

But there’s more with that. I’m a mum from Frankston with two dogs and a mortgage, and I’m going to be your member for Dunkley.

I am not a career politician. I’m someone who wants to make a difference for this great community and further afield. And I’m now going to be your strong local voice in Canberra.

She speaks about Peta Murphy (who had recruited her to the Labor party) and thanks Peta’s husband, Rod Glover, for being in the room and supporting her campaign.

I am humble to have the opportunity to follow in Peta Murphy’s footsteps and to build on her remarkable legacy.

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Updated at 06.04 EST

We are coming for Labor at next election, Nathan Conroy tells Liberal supporters

Nathan Conroy has been allowed to take the microphone and he actually mentions that things did not go the Liberal party’s way:

Although the result didn’t go our way tonight, it is a great opportunity to highlight the big swing that we had both on primary and two-party preferred because at the next election we are coming for Albanese and his government.

… Because the cost of living is in crisis, healthcare is in crisis, housing is in crisis, and I can tell you now crime is on the rise, community infrastructure is being cut.

These are the things that matter to the people of Dunkley, Victoria and Australia, and we have sent Albanese a message tonight.

On the first-preference swing, there was no UAP or One Nation candidate in this byelection, like there was for the general election. So those votes mostly went back to the Liberal party. If One Nation and UAP run at the next election, it is hard to say what would happen to those votes.

Also, the Labor primary vote held. Which means the Advance messaging of “put Labor last” did not work. The Advance campaign, on this result, failed.

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Updated at 06.04 EST

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy concedes defeat

Paul Karp reports Nathan Conroy has called Jodie Belyea and conceded.

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Updated at 04.53 EST

Antony Green calls Dunkley for Labor’s Jodie Belyea

Antony Green has now joined it and called it for Labor and Jodie Belyea.

So that is a birthday present for Anthony Albanese.

Supporters celebrate as Labor’s Jodie Belyea is called as the winner. Photograph: Morgan Hancock/AAPShare

Updated at 05.21 EST

Labor (unofficially) calls a win for Jodie Belyea

Labor is (unofficially) calling it as a win for Jodie Belyea.

The Liberal’s Keith Wolahan, who is one of only (two or three depending on where you draw the boundaries) of inner Melbourne Liberal MPs and someone who is being touted as a future leader of the party has (unofficially) conceded.

He told the ABC:

I am getting deja vu and PTSD [flashing back to] sitting with you and the team [last election].

If Antony is close to call it, it is looking that way. I will wait for him to make it official.

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Updated at 04.47 EST

Labor appears to have held Dunkley

The count of postal votes has begun and Ben Raue is reporting there is less than a 6% swing towards the Liberal’s Nathan Conroy.

With that news it appears that Labor’s Jodie Belyea has won the Dunkley byelection.

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Updated at 04.38 EST

Labor ‘increasingly feeling confident’ as swing narrows

A Labor source has said they are not calling the Dunkley result yet – but they are increasingly feeling confident of a win.

With 20% of the two-party preferred vote counted, the Liberal candidate, Nathan Conroy, has currently received 47% of the two-party preferred vote, a swing of 3.3% to the opposition, well short of the 6.3% swing required to win the seat off the Albanese government.

Labor is not ready to call the seat, because the AEC is yet to reveal the two-party preferred count for postal and prepoll votes. But on the votes cast on the day, the Liberals are falling short.

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Updated at 04.20 EST

Good evening

Welcome to a special edition of Australian politics live where we will be following the Dunkley byelection vote count.

Polls close at 6pm and the count will begin immediately after. Byelections usually whizz by pretty quickly – unless it is close. But we should get an idea soon after the polls close which way the votes are breaking.

Labor holds the seat by a 6.3% margin, which is not considered safe in these days of wild swings. Governments usually have a swing against them in a byelection and Dunkley isn’t a natural Labor seat – the Coalition held it from 1996 to 2019, when Peta Murphy won it from Chris Crewther.

Murphy’s tragic passing from cancer is the reason for the byelection. She had personally recruited Jodie Belyea to the Labor party and it was Anthony Albanese who asked her to run in this byelection.

The Frankston mayor, Nathan Conroy, is the Liberal party’s hope.

It has been a pretty brutal campaign – rightwing political group Advance has taken the techniques it honed during the voice referendum and applied them to the electorate in what has come as a bit of a shock to some political watchers.

Things are close, at least if you talk to those within the parties. The polls show it being close too, and so do the actions of the major parties in the parliament for the last week.

But there is nothing more they can do now, so follow along as we watch this count.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

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Updated at 02.02 EST