Kurtenbach: The two things the Niners must do to beat the Bills

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Three weeks ago, the 49ers were run over by the Saints, leaving their season all but finished.

Since then, they have won one game. Just one. That’s equal to the number of franchise relocations they’ve made over the same period.

And yet, with another win Monday night, they can move into a three-way tie for the final playoff spot in the NFC.

Hey, eventually, some luck was going to go the 49ers’ way.

Thank the Arizona Cardinals — not just for their hospitality in letting the 49ers crash with them for the next few weeks, but also for their three-game losing streak, which has given the 49ers new life, despite, again, the fact that all they have done in recent weeks is barely beat the Rams in a game that no one truly deserved to win.

The Niners have been given a reprieve. And two factors will determine if they take full advantage of it against the Bills.

1. Make Josh Allen throw

Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has become even more flexible in his scheme this season, and it has been a big, positive factor in that unit’s success.

But the Niners defense still has an Achilles heel: running quarterbacks.

And Bills quarterback Josh Allen, as Saleh noted last week, is “like a young Cam Newton.”

I don’t think Allen is on par with Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson when comparing overall effectiveness at the quarterback position. Still, his ability to extend passing plays or make something out of nothing with his feet is going to tax a single-gap, “all-gas, no-breaks” defense. You want some breaks against a running quarterback; otherwise, you can run right by him and he can run 10, 15, 20 yards down the field.

Perhaps the fact that the 49ers’ pass rush has been mediocre, at best, this season is a benefit. Last year, Niners’ pass rushers struggled to contain the quarterback because they sacrificed positioning to go for sacks. (It helped that they sacked the quarterback a lot.) This year, they’re not getting to the quarterback at anywhere close to the same rate — they should be in an excellent position to prevent scrambles.

The 49ers’ secondary should be able to limit the Bills’ passing game. The 49ers’ linebackers should be able to slow down the Bills’ running backs. It’s on this defense’s worst unit — the defensive line — to not only put pressure on Allen Monday night but also to not pressure him so much that he does what he does best and run.

It’s a fine line, but the 49ers know that’s what the margins between victory and defeat are these days.

2. Mullens needs to be Garoppolovian 

The good news for the 49ers is that the Bills have a lousy run defense — it’s ranked 22nd in the NFL in DVOA. With Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel in the lineup, the 49ers will run, run, run. And while some of the runs will be called passes in the box score, we’ll know.

It’s that run defense vs. the Shanahan run game that saw this game go wild in Las Vegas. The Bills opened as 3-point favorites last Sunday night. As of this morning, the 49ers are one-point favorites.

But the 49ers — try as they might — cannot just run on every single down Monday. I expect Buffalo to sell out to slow down the 49ers’ rushing attack.

The Bills are going to dare Nick Mullens to beat them.

The key down — as if this wasn’t already known — is third. Note, though, that Allen is the best third-down passer in the NFL this season, taking the title from last year’s champ, Jimmy Garoppolo. Mullens has only thrown for a first down 45 percent of the time on third down — one of the worst rates in the NFL.

If Mullens can match Allen’s third-down performance on Monday, the 49ers should win. That’s how much faith Niners fans should have in the running game.

But that’s a tall order, even when factoring in the Niners’ impressive defense.

Yes, no matter how hard the Niners might try to avoid the truth, quarterback play still rules the day in the NFL.

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