Kurtenbach: The Niners have three key ingredients to make a second-half run

In the NFL’s ideal world, half of the teams in the league would finish 9-8 and the other half 8-9.

So it seems fitting that the 49ers — 4-4 and subject to both wild ups and downs in the first half of the season — find themselves in an ideal position to be the NFC’s team to beat for the remainder of the season.

The Niners might not be undefeated like the Eagles, or be atop their division like the Vikings or Seahawks, but San Francisco is becoming a trendy pick to win the conference come January.

Despite the Niners’ record, FanDuel sportsbook has San Francisco as the second-favorites to win the NFC this season — behind Philadelphia — at plus-500. (Wager $1 to win $5.)

It’s a good bet.

The rationale is simple: The Niners’ highs are as impressive as any team in the NFL, and the NFC stinks this season, even with the Eagles’ league-best start.

The 49ers have their problems, no doubt. And I’m certain they will make the remainder of this season more difficult than needed.

But that’s just the way the Niners do business. And that business does well come the critical weeks of the regular season and playoffs.

The Niners are built to play “January Football” which is all about defense, running the ball, and capitalizing on third down.

For the 49ers, that should be check, check, and check.

And despite the name, January Football is played — and required — well before the calendar flips.

The Niners’ defense has shown the ability to be the NFL’s best. And while it won’t have cornerback Jason Verrett on the field this season — he tore his Achilles tendon this week in his effort to return from an ACL injury — San Francisco does have depth at that position and should see the returns of linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and defensive tackle Arik Armstead in the coming days, providing a huge boost to the team’s run defense.

San Francisco already made its move to run the ball better for the second half and beyond. Christian McCaffrey’s notoriety might come from his ability to do everything on the field, as displayed in the Niners’ win over the Rams when he scored a touchdown hat trick (running, passing, catching). He’s a brilliant runner of the football who added a serious spark to an offense that was averaging 4.4 yards per carry before he arrived.

Additionally, the return of Eli Mitchell, the No. 1 back entering the season, should give the 49ers a one-two punch in the backfield capable of executing Kyle Shanahan’s ideal offense, which runs the ball on first and second down.

Then comes third down. Success in the NFL is dictated by it.

Garoppolo was arguably the NFL’s best third-down quarterback when the Niners went to the Super Bowl in 2019. Last season represented a serious regression.

Garoppolo hasn’t been an ace third-down quarterback this season either, but he has been much better than last season. His 109 quarterback rating on third down is markedly better than NFC rivals Kyler Murray (85.4), Aaron Rodgers (84.9), Kirk Cousins (83.8), and Tom Brady (77.3) — and seventh overall in the NFL.

That’s serviceable.

And it should get better, so long as the Niners can stay healthy.

With McCaffrey, the return of Deebo Samuel (who missed the Niners’ last game), George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings, the Niners have five top-flight viable pass catchers that can move all around the field on the money down.

“You’ve got five guys who can touch the ball,” Shanahan said, “so the more people have to worry about those five guys, the better. You got two guys who are a little bit interchangeable [in Samuel and McCaffrey]. They’re different positions, but they both can play the other one’s position, so it just makes it a lot easier to distribute the field.

“It’s not like Deebo is going to do this for him or he’s going to do that for Deebo. They both do it for everybody including one another and themselves. It just makes a little bit more space and, it makes a little bit more of a threat on whoever gets the ball in their hands.”

Add in Shanahan’s ability to scheme players open in the passing game, and if Garoppolo can’t get them the ball on third down, that’s on the quarterback.

This is a league that’s ultimately defined by that position, after all.

The Niners have provided some serious heartburn at the start of the season, but they are in a position where they only need to play their best football late in the campaign.

The Niners have a lot of things going for them heading into this crucial portion of the season — a stretch where they reasonably need to win five of their remaining nine games to make the postseason.

That’s a reasonable expectation, which could set up even larger expectations in the postseason.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      cx

Sports columnist Dieter Kurtenbach analyzes the amazing and roasts the absurd in the world of sports for the Bay Area News Group. He was previously a national sports columnist for Fox Sports and a staff writer at the South Florida Sun Sentinel. He can also be heard on KNBR (104.5-FM, 680-AM).